For the second straight year, Ketel Marte will appear on breakout lists due to a strong second half. It’s time for him to either produce over a full season, or target him for trades after the All-Star break. Entering his Age-25 season, Marte will not only try to take flight for an entire year, but also learn to play outfield potentially adding to his second base and shortstop eligibility, further sweetening his appeal.

In 2018, Marte appeared in 153 games with 68 runs, 14 home runs, 59 RBI, six stolen bases and a .260/.332/.437 slash line, doing just enough across the categories but not standing out in any of them. If Marte gets the green light to run more, his allure grows in fantasy with owners searching for late round speed options.

During the second half, Marte slashed .296/.377/.464 with five home runs and four stolen bases in only 196 at-bats over 59 games. His isolated power went down, but his walk percentage rose to 10.7-percent with a 14.7 strikeout rate. Of more importance, Marte reduced his ground ball percentage by over eight points with a slight rise in his hard hit percentage. Marte’s yet to carry over the gains for a full season, but could be primed to do so.

Over the last three years, Marte’s accrued 1,192 at-bats with 153 runs, 20 home runs, 111 RBI, 21 stolen bases and a .259/.319/.385 slash. Less than inspiring. However, when perusing his xSTATS, Marte owns an expected average of .284 in this same sample with 20.6 expected home runs. Perhaps he’s percolating at the right time for fantasy.

Transitioning to Statcast, Marte recorded 444 batted ball events with 22 barrels (five percent), an 88.6 MPH average exit velocity and a 5.7 degree launch angle. If Marte’s going to breakout for fantasy purposes, he needs to generate fewer ground balls, which occurred in the second half, but not over a full year. It’s not going to be all about a hard hit rate for Marte, rather, getting more batted ball events in the air whether by line drive or fly ball.

With this in mind, here’s Marte’s data using a graph on Fangraphs during his last two seasons in Arizona. Note the spikes in the second half of last year:

It will take a leap of faith, but at the current price point, it’s relatively cheap to find out if Marte can turn the corner in 2019. His projections align with the last three years but do provide a glimpse of different outcomes based on playing time and tweaks in his game:

Achieving the ATC projection would ensure profit for Ketel Marte owners late in drafts. It’s not assured, but well within the realm of outcomes. Hitting near to the top of the lineup should help Marte score closer to 80 runs with health and a higher average, hope lies in him reaching 15 home runs and 10 stolen bases. There’s room for growth, here’s hoping Marte takes the leap.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE ATC courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski