As one of the pioneers of the fly ball revolution, Justin Turner continues to produce when he’s on the field, but therein lies the trepidation. Turner appeared in 151 games in 2016, 130 games in 2017 and only 103 games last year. Although the injuries can be fluky, it needs to be baked into his projections for 2019.
Turner scored 62 runs with 14 home runs, 52 RBI, two stolen bases and a robust .312/.406/.518 slash line in only 365 at-bats last year. He walked in 11 percent of plate appearances, only struck out 12.7 percent of the time and produced an isolated power over two hundred. Plus, Turner also generated more line drives (26.2 percent) than ground balls (29.4 percent) yet recorded a 45 percent hard hit rate.
After Turner’s return on August second, he reached safely in 51 of his last 53 games with 41 runs, 23 doubles, one triple, nine home runs, 32 RBI and an eye popping .357/.449/.618 slash line. During this time frame, Turner ranked first in average along with second in on-base percentage and on-base plus slugging percent (1.067). His isolated power spiked to .261 within this sample as well.
Over the last three years, Turner’s played in 386 games with 215 runs, 63 home runs, 216 RBI, 13 stolen bases and a .301/.384/.514 line. Due to his 43.9 fly ball rate, Turner’s 12.1 home run per fly ball percentage seems depressed, but key on his 40.1 hard hit rate during 1,384 at-bats. Comparing this to xSTATS, Turner’s expected average of .287 sits a bit below his actual but his 61.7 expected home runs align well with his production.
Using Turner’s Statcast data, last year he generated 313 batted ball events with 24 barrels, an average exit velocity of 89.2 MPH and for the second straight season, an 18.3 degree launch angle. Turner can elevate pitches in most parts of the strike zone and his plate discipline plays well in a deep Dodgers lineup. Here’s a look at his zone profiles in regards to average and expected average:
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Turner’s recent uptick in production seems to coincide with the major league use of elevated fastballs, which play well to Turner’s skill set. Here’s his power indicators as well:
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When making contact in the strike zone, and in the top third, Turner excels. Keep this in mind for daily fantasy sports when Los Angeles faces a pitcher who elevates his fastballs. Since Turner usually gets targeted after pick 100 in drafts, he’s very reasonably priced for owners looking to insulate a teams batting average. In fact, with some luck, Turner could be a steal if he logs 500 or more at-bats. This also resonates in his projections:
Forecasting Turner for 149 games seems aggressive, but the numbers would be in reach. THE BAT also seems to account for Turner’s expected average from the last three years highlighted above. It appears ATC’s could be the most relevant projection, and if Turner did this, his owner’s should not be disappointed.
While veteran hitters do not move the fantasy needle, Justin Turner proves to be a reliable asset in terms of batting average and production when healthy. Just account for a stint on the injured list this year and one will not upset about return on investment. He will be entering his decline soon, so enjoy this year’s production which will yield a better feel for his projections going forward, especially his health rating.
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Statistical Credits:
THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty
ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski