First, Travis Shaw upped his power on arrival in Milwaukee with a park suited for his swing. Then last season, he added second base to his eligibility as a sweetener for this year’s drafts. It remains to be seen how much Shaw’s average will bounce back, but with back-to-back 30 home run seasons and in the midst of his power prime, he still gets undervalued.

Shaw appeared in 152 games with 73 runs, 32 home runs, 86 RBI, five stolen bases and a .241/.345/.480 slash line in 498 at-bats. His isolated power of .239 accompanied a rise in walk percentage to 13.3-percent and he reduced strikeouts to 18.4-percent of his plate appearances. Especially in the second half, Shaw generated more fly balls upping his season total to 44.5 percent but after the All-Star his hard-hit rate surged to 44.8-percent resulting in 14 home runs within his last 179 at-bats (one every 12.78) with a .257 isolated power.

Over the last two years, Shaw’s accrued 1,037 at-bats with 63 home runs, 187 RBI, 15 stolen bases and a .257/.346/.497 line. Comparing this to his expected average of .254 in the same sample, there’s some positive migration in the offing to the .250-plus range. Especially if Shaw tweaked his swing last year to produce more fly balls which can result in the BABIP crater he incurred.

Within this shift in batted ball data, Shaw did improve upon both his swinging strike percentage and chase rates while his contact aligned with 2017. Again, better discipline with more fly balls along with a higher hard-hit percentage could signal a career year in power for Shaw. According to Statcast, Shaw recorded 397 batted ball events with 41 barrels and an average exit velocity of 88.4 MPH on them. He increased his launch angle by two degrees as well. All of his fly balls and line drives from the last two years can be seen in the following chart:

Forcing him to hit to the opposite field may not unlock power, but continuing to drive the ball in the air to center and to left-center could be beneficial. Plus, Shaw’s zone profiles provide a glimmer of hope in his expected power indicators:

Shaw will need to handle the top of the strike zone better, but entering his Age-28 season with adjustments the last two years, he seems primed for a better season at a discount. Here’s Shaw’s projections from three sites:

As this profile hints, leaning towards THE BAT’s projection when targeting Shaw this year. Having the eligibility at both second base and third base with power percolating on a top offense in a tremendous park, yes please. Travis Shaw ’s been through adversity, tweaked his swing and back to his preferred position of third base. Getting Shaw after pick 95 in most drafts makes sense. Especially when third base falls off a cliff quicker than fantasy players believe.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski