With home run production down in 2017, fantasy owners craving power can turn their weary eyes on Joey Gallo . However, he comes with a flaw, batting average. Unless an owner’s willing to punt batting average, targeting Gallo will require roster management. Since the results could be worth the reach, it will require some balance.

In a previous article for Fantasy Alarm, by positions, putting Gallo with Joey Votto could create the following scenario for fantasy:

Other candidates to use with Gallo include Anthony Rendón , Daniel Murphy , Robinson Canó or Lorenzo Cain . Getting a player to accrue enough at-bats with an average at or above three hundred allows for some flexibility.

Last year, Gallo launched 40 home runs in only 500 at-bats with 82 runs, 92 RBI, three stolen bases and a .206/.312/.498 slash line. He produced a .292 isolated power with a 12.8 walk percentage and 35.9 strikeout rate. But, his 49.8 fly ball percentage and 48.5 hard hit rate try to mitigate the damage done with his high propensity to swing and miss. Gallo’s swinging strike percentage of 18.4 did improve slightly versus his numbers from 2017 and he did generate two percent more contact.

In the second half, Gallo hit .239/.340/.592 with 18 home runs in only 184 at-bats (one every 10.2) with a 52-percent hard hit rate and 28.8 home run per fly ball percentage. Suddenly, Gallo seems more appealing. He’s yet to produce an average above .220 over a full season in the majors and the shift can affect him:

Using the opposite field seems to be the last frontier for Gallo in his development. If he could drive the ball with authority to left-field, or hit line drives opposite of the shift, his average would benefit. Gallo can also beat the shift with elevation. His fly ball rate of almost 50 percent plus his 19.4-line drive rate over the last two years looks as such in a spray chart:

Gallo’s hit home runs to left-center, but only a couple down the line in left field. During his last 295 games, he’s hit 81 home runs in 949 at-bats with a .307 isolated power. After the All-Star break last year, his isolated power spiked to .353 with a 36.7 home run per fly ball percentage. Representing a player fully invested in the fly ball revolution, Gallo’s power could result in a 50 home run season, if he were to accrue enough at-bats with palatable contact. But this proves to be the challenge.

Hope lies in his xSTATS. According to the site, Gallo’s expected average the last two years of .234 shrouds his actual .207 average. His expected home runs of 85 also beats his actual number by four. While the site rewards his hard-hit metrics, here’s his last two expected slash lines by season:

  • 2017 - .224/.345/.556
  • 2018 - .232/.335/.539

Any migration of his batting average towards these levels would push Gallo into the second or third round in drafts. Crazy? Not at all.

Using Gallo’s data on Statcast, he produced 293 batted ball events last year with 66 barrels (third most in the majors) and a 93.9 MPH average exit velocity (second in baseball). He only hit .234 against fastballs but with an expected average of .259 and an eye popping .634 expected slugging rate.

Drafting Gallo for what might be does not account for his consistent production in terms of power. It resonates in his projections:

For the second straight year, Gallo’s projections see a rise in his batting average. This will be the last frontier of his fantasy accomplishments. If Joey Gallo uses the opposite field, hits for power to it and can raise his average, he’s a bargain at his present price. It would also spike a fantasy rosters production if he beats his average this year. Owners looking for upside can target Gallo above his average draft position and be sure to insulate the batting average category when doing so. But, there’s profit in a 45 home run season with a .220 average. Or, fantasy owners will continue to chase the white whale.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski