When evaluating Carlos Santana , it’s time to view 2016 as the outlier. His present price fits perfectly with his present skill set. Returning to Cleveland and the American League could enable a rebound in batting average, but Santana’s a 22-to-25 home run player going forward. And, there’s nothing wrong with this.

Last year, Santana’s slash line cratered to .229/.352/.414 with 82 runs, 24 home runs, 86 RBI in 560 at-bats. He does provide solid counting statistics which need to be accounted for in every draft or auction. Santana’s also one of five hitters to walk more than he struck out last season. This underscores the increased value he provides in on-base percentage formats. Part of Santana’s struggles last year can be tied to his .231 BABIP causing a steep decline in his average.

Santana did maintain his strong discipline metrics last year despite his struggles but did become more aggressive on his swings and misses outside the strike zone. He also recorded the highest fly ball rate of his career of 43.7-percent. It’s easy to create a baseline on a veteran, but predicting if he’s in decline needs to be addressed. Our own general manager at Fantasy Alarm, Jim Bowden, feels Santana cannot turn on the fastball like he used to. Definitely worth noting.

Over the last three years, Santana’s accrued 1,713 at-bats with 261 runs, 81 home runs, 252 RBZ, 12 stolen bases and a .249/.360/.457 slash line. This absorbs last season’s low average and his career year from 2016. Using his xSTATS, Santana’s expected average of .259 seems about right, though it seems like the high tide in his possible projections.

Santana’s hard-hit rate fell to 33-percent in 2018 and his isolated power seems to be settling in the .186-to-.196 range. Even with the low BABIP, Santana’s expected slash from last year of .248/.368/.463 could be the best-case scenario for the upcoming season. Just heed the chasm of his hard-hit rates and isolated power:

When the valleys override the peaks, it’s time to change expectations. This also reflects in Santana’s projection sets:

For teams looking for a serviceable corner infielder, Carlos Santana fits the bill. Again, in on-base percentage leagues, his value increases appreciably. However, paying for his outlier year will be a mistake so plan accordingly with the chart above. His xSTATS suggest Santana will surpass his ZiPS slash line, his counting statistics will be reliant on where he hits for Cleveland.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski