Once again, Byron Buxton will be a polarizing player in upcoming drafts and auctions. Owning name recognition and upside, someone will reach for Buxton hoping for him to return to his top prospect status. Buxton only appeared in 28 games last year accruing 90 at-bats with eight runs, four RBI and five stolen bases. He hit an abysmal .156/.183/.200 within them before missing time to injury and spending his rehab stuck in the minor leagues.

Buxton’s one year removed from 69 runs, 16 home runs, 51 RBI, 29 stolen bases and a .253/.314/.413 slash line in 140 games. Although his average went up, so did his strikeout rate. Given his inability to make consistent contact, Buxton will lure in fantasy owners with the chance for double digit home runs and 30-plus stolen bases with health.

It’s difficult to attach labels to young players, but here’s Buxton’s disabled list stints with Minnesota:

Migraines bothered him in the past, and owners who targeted him in the first five rounds last year probably suffered from them. So far in spring, Buxton’s red hot. He’s driven in 10 runs in two games with two home runs. Before inhaling all the helium, remember when everyone kicked themselves for not getting Ian Happ in drafts last year? Pump the brakes.

So far in February, Buxton represents the 45th outfielder taken in NFBC Draft Champions leagues with an average draft position of 167.38 and a range of 136-to-192 as March approaches. Before being the one who reaches for upside, consider a similar career trajectory Buxton seems to be on, Melvin Upton Jr.

Through 306 games, Buxton’s accrued 979 at-bats with 137 runs, 28 home runs, 99 RBI, 46 stolen bases (only caught five times) and a .230/.285/.387 slash line. Of all of his statistics, his five times being thrown out trying to steal should be more talked about. He’s fast. Like, really fast. According to Statcast data, Buxton’s finished first in their speed metric in three of the last four years. He only finished second in 2017 and owns a sprint speed of 30.5 feet per second or more in each year.

Using the same age years for Upton Jr., the data will be based on his seasons between 2009-through-2011. Upton played in 446 games with 250 runs, 52 home runs, 198 RBI, 120 stolen bases and a .240/.322/.408 line. Surprised? When going into their batted ball data, the chart shows Buxton’s best year so far, 2017 along with his career numbers versus Upton’s three year run above along with his career totals:

Buxton produces more line drives but with a higher strikeout rate and lower walk percentage. It’s striking Upton Jr. displayed better discipline metrics than Buxton to this point, but there’s a small window for Buxton to rebound. Given the knowledge of Buxton’s speed, it’s also surprising he does not bunt more often to buoy his average. A bunt could translate into a double quickly with his ability to convert stolen base attempts. While most of baseball lauds the fly ball revolution, Buxton could break slumps with bunt singles. Just a thought.

After not being recalled last September, Buxton took it to heart. He started hitting in October and bulked up, putting on a reported 20 pounds of muscle over the winter. This could explain his hot start in spring, he’s simply ahead of the competition. Will it carry over for a month or when the season starts? It remains to be seen.

But, one cannot overlook Buxton’s 14.1 career swinging strike percentage, 70.5 contact and 32.3 O-Swing percentage (swings and misses at pitches outside the strike zone). Baseball proves to be a game of adjustments, can Buxton overcome his contact issues and avoid pitches outside the zone? Here’s his career whiffs per swing percentages by zone courtesy of Brooks Baseball:

Buxton actually does well on pitches in the strike zone, but look at all the red and darker colors above the zone and outside the strike zone. Buxton’s an imperfect player plying his trade in an imperfect game.

Transitioning to his xSTATS data, Buxton’s expected average for his career sits at .225 with 25.2 expected home runs. He’s only recorded an expected on-base average over three hundred once, in 2017 when his expected slash of .250/.312/.400 offers a glimmer of hope. Knowing his career rates, here’s Buxton’s projections from four different sites:

Herein lies his baseline values for this year. However, could Buxton explode and breakout? There’s a chance. His glove will give him a chance to start in center field and play for the Twins. It’s more likely he steals 30 bases than hits 20 home runs, but no one really knows Buxton’s upside due to his past performance. For an owner looking to reach for lightning in a bottle in the 12th round or later in a 15-team draft, Buxton makes for a worthy target. Paying full retail for what he could be, will be a mistake.

Enter drafts or auctions with tempered expectations as its better to undersell on Buxton and let him over deliver rather than investing in statistics he may not be able to achieve. For baseball, a healthy and productive Byron Buxton would be very exciting. Melvin Upton Jr. averaged 149 games between 2009-to-2011 with 83 runs, 17 home runs, 66 RBI, 40 stolen bases and a .240 average. Buxton owners should be ecstatic to get this in 2019. It’s not assured, but it’s also not out of the realm of outcomes. Except his runs and RBI will be lower hitting ninth. Feeling lucky?

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

BrooksBaseball.net

xSTATS.org

Baseball-Reference.com

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

SteamerProjections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski