Blocked by Jose Martinez and Matt Carpenter while with the Cardinals, Luke Voit not only forged playing time with the Yankees, he scorched baseballs from August on. On a path shared by Kevin Maas, Shane Spencer and even teammate Greg Bird , fantasy owners will try to discern whether Voit’s second half breakout can be trusted or will he be another name added to the litany above?

As a Yankee, Voit appeared in 39 games with five doubles, 14 home runs, 33 RBI, a .333 average and a 1.095 on-base plus slugging percentage. Only Christian Yelich hit more home runs and recorded a higher on-base plus slugging within this time frame. Voit’s massive .350 isolated power combined with his 28-line drive percentage and 40.5 home run per fly ball rate for a final .322/.398/.671 slash line on the season over only 143 at-bats. So, this proves to be a small sample size.

Factor in Voit enters his Age-28 season to all of this and he will be in his peak power prime, but can he carry over the gains? Since his 2018 aligns with Matt Olson ’s of 2017, here’s an idea of how their seasons compare:

While Voit and Olson appear almost identical, Olson did display slightly better plate discipline, at a younger age, and the propensity to generate more fly balls. Voit’s line drive rate fueled the spike in his batting average, but, according to xSTATS, he finished with a .295/.374/.620 expected slash line. When looking at his career numbers, Voit’s registered 257 major league at-bats with a .265 expected average in them. Keep this in mind when trying to predict his projections.

Voit’s racked up 532 at-bats in Triple-A with 41 doubles, 23 home runs, a .314/.392/.532 slash, a 10.3 walk percentage and 17.8 strikeout rate. Due to Voit’s hot finish to last year along with his numbers at this level, he deserves a chance to see what’s possible in the major leagues.

According to Statcast, Voit produced 100 batted ball events with a 15.3-degree launch angle and an average exit velocity of 93 MPH. He recorded 54 batted balls with an exit velocity of 95 MPH-plus for a robust 54 hard hit percentage. Here’s a look at his exit velocities on fly balls and line drives last year:

Knowing he will play half of his games at Yankee Stadium, his heatmap could be intriguing, especially if he uses right field to his advantage:

Staying with Statcast, Voit’s average spiked with an increased performance versus both breaking and offspeed pitches. Voit can hunt fastballs, he hit .333 against them last season with a .320 expected average, expected slugging of .784 and an average exit velocity of 94.4 MPH. There should be some regression against the other two pitch types, especially as teams get a book on him. Voit hit .308 against breaking pitches but with a .263 expected average and .404 expected slugging percentage. Same goes for his .316 average versus offspeed pitches but with a .274 expected average. Voit did finish with a .745 expected slugging against offspeed offerings and an expected slugging of .745, so all is not lost.

As for 2019, here’s how three different projection systems see his season going:

Key on two things. First, the games played do not reflect him winning the full-time first base job outright at this time with the Yankees. If he did, the at-bats would rise along with the power counting statistics. Voit could hit seventh or eighth with New York if he wins the job, which also affects his outcomes. Seventh batters scored 72 runs in 599 at-bats last year with 84 RBI for the Yankees. Eighth hitters accrued 73 runs over 586 at-bats with 78 RBI.

At his present price point, Luke Voit finds himself with similarly flawed first basemen with potential varied outcomes. If a believer, Voit could between 25-to-28 home runs in 550 at-bats. He will not be elite in terms of runs or RBI due to his spot in the batting order, but owning cheap pieces of the Yankees offense can still prove profitable.

Heed the expected .265 average with room for growth to the mid-.270’s akin to the ATC projection above. Voit’s shown the ability to get on base in the minors and hit for power. How well his discipline holds up and his grip on the first base job will determine his fate. It’s a risky profile, but one which can be defended if searching for power upside after 175 in drafts.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Steamprojections.com

MLB.com