Injuries and plate discipline seem to temper how fantasy owners feel about Trevor Story . However, those who took the plunge investing in him last year reaped the rewards. Story appeared in 157 games with 88 runs, 37 home runs, 108 RBI, 27 stolen bases and a robust .291/.348/.567 slash line. His isolated power spiked to .276 and despite his walk percentage decreasing slightly, Story also reduced his strikeout rate to 25.6 percent last season.

In final National League rankings, Story did well in most counting categories:

  • Tied for first in extra-base hits (85)
  • Tied for second in home runs (37)
  • Second in slugging percentage (.567)
  • Fourth in strikeouts (168)
  • Tied for fourth in doubles (42)
  • Sixth in stolen bases (27)
  • Tied for seventh in multiple hit games (51)
  • 10th in hits (174)

One can accept Story’s propensity to strikeouts given his ability to contribute across the board in fantasy; especially when considering he recorded fewer strikeouts than Paul Goldschmidt and Bryce Harper last year.

Story’s also the first shortstop with at least 40 doubles, 30 home runs and 25 stolen bases in history. This also places him as the 16th player all-time to do so. He also accumulated two hit streaks of at least 12 games last year with a season high 13-game streak between July 3rd through the 22nd.

Trying to discern how to value Story in 2019 will come down to how much regression lies within his batting average. It’s apparent he owns the talent to register high hard-hit rates. He will be a bit aggressive, but playing Coors tempers a return to his 2017 crater of hitting below .240, right? Using his splits from each half from his first three years as a guide, it’s time to see if he’s truly improved:

Although Story’s walk rate declined in each of the last two halves, he’s been able to overcome this with better contact, especially in the strike zone (Z-contact). Story’s chase rate (O-Swing) did spike in the second half, but it could be to generate more power. After his hot start in 2016, an injury and then adjustments in 2017 set the table for last year’s breakout.

Over his first three years, Story’s played in 399 games with 223 runs, 88 home runs, 262 RBI, 42 stolen bases and a .268/.333/.530 slash line. He’s not as bad in terms of batting as he displayed in 2017, but probably not as good as last year’s line either. His three year rates provide a solid baseline to build from going forward.

Within this sample, Story’s power rings true with a .261 isolated power, 45.6 fly ball percentage and 43.3 hard hit rate. He did pull the ball more last year which could signal further growth in power moving forward, especially given he’s entering his peak power years. In fact, when looking at his Statcast page, his chart encapsulates his hitter profile almost perfectly:

Great in terms of hard hit percentage, xw on-base average, expected slugging, exit velocity and sprint speed. However, his expected batting average drifts towards the average range. This will need to be accounted for when targeting him this year. Here’s his projections from three different sites:

Story’s expected statistics (xSTATS) reflect a .263 average over the last three years with 82.7 expected home runs. His expected slash from last year of .288/.345/.542 does show his growth, but tempers a repeat of last year.  But Story also recorded 198 95 MPH-plus batted ball events of his 434 for a 45.6 hard hit percentage according to Statcast. He also racked up 55 barrels (12th in the majors) with an average exit velocity of 90.7 MPH of all his batted balls. Most surprising, Story’s 29.6 feet per second sprint speed which ranked 15th best last season.

Hitting fifth versus right-handed pitching and fourth versus southpaws sets up well for Story in 2019. In regards to counting statistics, he’s rock solid. In 81 games hitting fifth last year, Story scored 47 runs with 50 RBI, 13 stolen bases and a .290/.349/.555 slash. He’s going to produce.

THE BAT approaches Story with the most aggressive projection in the chart above. It represents the high side of his numbers while also seeing the most regression in his average. Early reports indicate Story’s elbow will be healthy entering spring, so with health, he will be worth the price in drafts. Owners will need to project him closer to a .270 average than .290.

Trevor Story checks all the boxes in regards to power, speed and defense. Although his batting average will fluctuate due to his discipline metrics, with health, he can repeat last year’s numbers as long as one adjusts for a lower average. This still makes him worthy of his second round status in early drafts as evidenced by his results from last year.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Steamerprojections.com

RosterResource.com