Although this column runs weekly, bi-weekly, it reviews the top players in regards to their NFBC average draft positions. With February upon us, this week will focus on the 15-team drafts which finished this month to see how players valuations could be shifting. Also, at the end, a look at how to take two players in order to create two fantasy assets by combining their talents. Due to everyone targeting scarcity, meshing a flawed hitter with a solid veteran could forge two viable fantasy assets through balance. Namaste, and off to the charts first.

 

Catcher

After the trade to Philadelphia, J.T. Realmuto continues his ascent in average draft position. It’s not in regards to the overall, but heed the chasm between him and Gary Sánchez since. Buster Posey sees another drop in his ADP to the 10th round. Questions linger regarding his hip and power profile, feeling lucky? Also, it’s a bit of a roller coaster ride with Danny Jansen , but he’s trending up once again.

 

First Base

No player’s draft position could change more than Miguel Cabrera depending on how he looks this spring. First basemen tend to age poorly, so will he miss time, not hit for power or could one last run to fantasy glory lie in the offing? Joey Votto beats out Matt Carpenter once again, but remember Carpenter also owns third base eligibility. Not sure how Jesus Aguilar seems to be losing traction, but he’s much less risky the further he falls.

 

Second Base

For the first time, José Altuve pushed ahead of Javier Báez in terms of ADP. There’s still whispers about Altuve’s knee, but if he’s a full go and rebounds, could be worth the price. However, keep in mind middle infield harbors late round values when trying to accrue precious counting statistics. Gleyber Torres ebbs back again while Jonathan Villar continues to gain steam. Perhaps the perceived speed scarcity?

 

Third Base

Not sure waiting too long at third base can pay off, but Rafael Devers moved up in the latest ADP pushing his way into the ninth round while free agent Mike Moustakas falls slightly. Curious to see Josh Donaldson and Justin Turner heading in opposite directions. Each can be frustrating to roster due to recent injury issues, but both remain values at their present price point.

 

Shortstop

No surprise to see Francisco Lindor drop after the news about his injured calf. He’s not in complete freefall though, remaining in the first round. As news of his rehab generates, this could affect his draft status going forward, stay tuned. Again, speed on the rise with José Peraza jumping up six spots in February’s ADP. It’s a bit under the radar, but Elvis Andrus could be hitting third in a plus ballpark and could steal more than 20 bases. However, the upside chasers reach for Amed Rosario ahead of Andrus.

 

Outfield

Within the top-15 outfielders, not much change in the numbers. Charlie Blackmon could return to hitting leadoff with the Rockies, so if he steals more bases, his ADP could be on the rise as the season approaches. There’s also a clear tier forming with a drop below Ronald Acuna to Bryce Harper , then a small chasm between Andrew Benintendi and Starling Marte . Then a gap to the Tommy Pham and George Springer tier. Many starting pitchers and infielders will be flying off the board between picks 40-through-60, plan accordingly.

Not included above, Lorenzo Cain shoots up in recent ADP, remember the theme, speed. How healthy will Marcell Ozuna ’s shoulder be? Willing to find out? Yasiel Puig continues to rise and Mallex Smith ’s settling into the fifth round in 15-team formats. With reports about Shohei Ohtani not playing until potentially May along with his needing to rehab to pitch in 2020 combined to deflate his draft stock.

 

Starting Pitchers

All of the trends of pitching continue to climb and fantasy owners will need to adjust. In the recent LABR mixed league draft, 13 of the first 39 selections were starting pitchers. Mercy.

Spin rates, reduced velocity and situation keep depressing Madison Bumgarner in average draft position. So many similar situations in this grouping, but knowing who to target could decide leagues.

 

Relief Pitchers

Personal favorite targets Jose Leclerc and Kirby Yates continue to be well priced with potential for upside. Intrigued? Stop back next week to read the investing in saves article in the draft guide. Brad Hand jumped ahead of Felipe Vázquez and Roberto Osuna in the last two weeks. If targeting him, keep this in mind.

 

Player Fusions

As a part of the strategy component to this week’s data, what happens if combining two profiles when building a roster? For example, if taking a high risk and reward player, does pairing him with a solid veteran make sense? In an effort to discern this, three hitter examples and one pitching pair were fused together to see the results. Ron Shandler, one of fantasy baseball’s founding fathers, introduced this concept as a fantasy Frankenstein.

For example, if taking Adalberto Mondesí , adding Daniel Murphy to a team’s profile could look like this, using THE BAT projections:

So, instead of feeling dirty about taking Mondesi, his average risk gets defrayed by pairing him with Murphy. This provides a team with two 20/20 players with a combined .271 projected average. Not too shabby.

How about wanting to get Joey Gallo ’s huge power potential but he can drain a team’s average. Well, getting Joey Votto at a discount to insulate Gallo could look like this:

As a point of reference, only 26 players hit at least 30 home runs last year. Only 15 of them finished with at least 95 RBI. This combination creates two of them.

There’s many ways to go when picking third in drafts. In the “Lonely Hearts” draft on Valentine’s in Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army, I went with J.D. Martin ez. As the draft moved on, my team needed speed. So why not try for lightning in a bottle and add Mallex Smith . When added together:

Last, why not try this with pitchers. This pitching amalgamation could make for an intriguing second and third pitcher to pair with an early anchor when focusing on hitting counting statistics leading up to their respective ADP:

As always, please stay with Fantasy Alarm as spring training games draw closer to stay ahead of the competition.

 

 

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp/baseball