Trying to predict the ever enigmatic Yasiel Puig can be confounding. First, he’s a polarizing personality who could be a lightning rod of attention in Cincinnati. After a terrific breakout in 2013, his fantasy production mirrors his personality, exciting but sort of volatile. Last year, Puig did well in spite of appearing in 125 games with 60 runs, 23 home runs, 63 RBI, 15 stolen bases and a .267/.327/.494 slash line.

Through five years of his career, Puig’s averaging almost 127 games a season. His career-high sits at 152 in 2017. So, one needs to adjust expectations on Puig’s total counting statistics based on prior results. While this could temper his outlook, he’s also heading to Great American Ballpark which ranked first in home runs according to an accompanying article in the draft guide. Intrigued again?

Over the last three years, Puig’s racked up 1,238 at-bats, 177 runs, 62 home runs, 182 RBI, 35 stolen bases and a .264/.333/.489 slash. Within this sample, he owns a .205 isolated power, 35.8 fly ball percentage, 17.5 home run per fly ball percentage and 34.1 hard hit rate. Puig also pulled the ball 44 percent of the time. Courtesy of Baseball Savant, here’s all of Puig’s fly balls and line drives the last three years if hit in Cincinnati:

One cannot simply extrapolate when projecting, but not only will Puig benefit from his pull side power, look at how many field outs in the air reside between right-center and right field above. Last year, Puig’s .227 isolated power represents his career high, in his Age-27 season. He arrives in Cincinnati in the midst of his power peak. When Puig pulled the ball last year, his isolated power spiked to .396 fueling his surge. But, his isolated power to center reached .306 while it fell to .068 when he hit to the opposite field. It could be speculation only, but there’s room for growth if Puig drives the ball to right field with the Reds.

Not only did Puig’s isolated power rise, he also turned in a career best 38.4 hard hit rate and improved his line drive percentage by over five percent. He also turned in a career high 78.1 contact percentage and Z-contact (contact in the strike zone) of 89.8 percent. Plus, his swinging strike percentage stabilized at 10.6 percent. For context, Puig made better contact, more consistent contact in the strike zone and displayed better plate discipline.

Given his last three-year slash line, Puig deserved better using xSTATS as a guide. His average using his expected hits would be .278, which aligns closer with his career rate. Puig averaged a home run every 17.6 at-bats last year and 17.7 rate the last two years. He’s not a part of the fly ball revolution, rather, the power peak running its course. Which paves the way to success with the Reds if he starts strong. Having Turner Ward, his former batting coach, awaiting him in Cincinnati should ease the pressure.

Before delving into his projections, using Puig’s splits could provide a glimpse of coming events. Over the last three years, Puig hit .252/.320/.446 with 26 home runs and 89 RBI in 584 at-bats in home games compared to a .275/.346/.495 slash with 36 home runs and 93 RBI in 654 at-bats on the road. His splits were much more pronounced last year, but the three-year numbers provide a clearer view to use a guide.

With this in mind, here’s his projection from three different systems on Fangraphs:

Given his road splits from the last three years seem to be in play with his projection sets, this should be enticing for owners targeting Yasiel Puig in drafts. With health, a career high home runs should ensue, he can steal bases in mid-teens and provide a bounce back in his average. Also, keep in mind, all of the numbers in the chart represent about the 80th percentile of his potential for 2019.

Trusting a player nicknamed the “Wild Horse” could be risky, but Puig could be on the precipice of a top-15 season at his position with an average draft position outside the top 20 using ADP after the start of January. He can be erratic, maddening and enigmatic, but if he’s comfortable in Cincinnati, sky’s the limit. Targeting upside at his current price makes total sense, in fact, it’s still too cheap. Consider myself on Team Puig this year, especially if starts hitting home runs to right field.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, Steamerprojections.com