It’s pretty clear Mike Trout and Mookie Betts will be the consensus top two picks in fantasy drafts this year. So the first decision in drafts shift to who will be taken third? One option will be Francisco Lindor . His blend of power with speed hitting atop Cleveland’s lineup makes him an intriguing target. Lindor set career highs in both home runs (38) and stolen bases (25) last season. He also tied for first in runs scored in the majors (129), tied for fourth in total bases (353) and ranked eighth in hits (183).

Lindor’s only the second player since at least 1974 to hit at least 37 home runs as a shortstop joining Alex Rodriguez, who racked up six straight such seasons between 1998-to-2003. Not to be outdone, Lindor’s the first shortstop in history to record at least 40 doubles, 35 home runs and 20 stolen bases in the same season. It’s interesting to note 29 of his 38 home runs were solo shots along with 29 of his home runs occurring against right-handed pitchers.

Incredibly, last year represents Lindor’s Age-24 season which means the best could be in the offing. Along with his career bests in counting statistics, Lindor also registered career highs in hard hit rate (41.6 percent) and a 17.3 home run per fly ball percentage. In 2017, Lindor adjusted his swing to produce more fly balls which carried over to last season. Here’s a look at his batted ball data from the last three seasons along with their averages across all them:

Not illustrated above, Lindor also owns a Z-Contact (contact in the strike zone) of at least 90 percent in each of the last three years. It can be very enticing for fantasy owners given the correlation he’s displayed in hitting more fly balls along with a higher hard hit rate:

When diving a bit into his splits from last year, Lindor only hit .256/.330/.458 in the second half but with a 10.9 strikeout percentage and 8.9 walk rate. His BABIP fell to .251 after the All-Star break but he still racked up 13 home runs and 12 stolen bases over his last 64 games. It could be nothing, but if Lindor can improve his plate discipline in 2019, as reflected in last year’s second half, he could improve upon his batting average.

This shines through with Lindor’s expected statistics (xSTATS). Over 1,927 at-bats the last three years, he’s slashed .282/.348/.486 with 327 runs, 86 home runs, 259 RBI and 60 stolen bases. According to xSTATS, Lindor’s expected average of .298 sits well above his actual number. Add this to his improved Statcast data and Lindor’s power may already be nearing its peak.

Lindor recorded 560 batted ball events last year with 228 resulting in an exit velocity of 95 MPH+ (40.7 percent) according to Statcast. He also finished 14th in the majors with 53 barrels and for the third straight season, improved his launch angle, reaching 14.5 degrees last season.

With room for growth in batting average, it will be tough for Lindor to repeat the home run total from 2018, but he could hit 30-plus with 20 or more steals making him a stable target with upside early in drafts. Due to his age, pedigree and performance so far in the majors, this reflects within his projection sets:

While picking third in drafts could be disappointing, owners who select Francisco Lindor may not be disappointed. He’s in line to rack up 100 or more runs while trying to repeat history with 40+ doubles, 30+ home runs and 20+ stolen bases as a shortstop. Building a solid baseline of statistics early in drafts helps round out rosters. Target Lindor with confidence in 2019.

Update 2/8/19

Lindor suffered a calf muscle injury and will miss seven-to-nine weeks as a result. This will impact where he's taken in drafts dependent upon how soon to game action he can return. If he returns healthy, Lindor could see a reduction in his counting statistics. Calf injuries can be tricky, as Josh Donaldson's taught fantasy owners, so plan accordingly when targeting Lindor this year. If it works out to be only 10 games missed, the projection changes could be minimal, but if the injury lingers, it could be costly to his overall value. (GJ)

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

xSTATS.org

THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

Steamerprojections.com

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski