When writing about the defending Cy Young Award winner, it’s rare to suggest positive regression in wins could ensue. However, this applies to Jacob deGrom . Despite winning only 10 games, deGrom finished with a 1.70 ERA over 32 starts. He threw 217 innings with 269 strikeouts against 46 walks, a 0.91 WHIP and 2.60 xFIP. deGrom’s swinging strike percentage rose to 15.1 percent, he reduced contact allowed to 70.8 percent while yielding a hard hit percentage of 26.6 percent.

According to Elias Sports, deGrom recorded 19 starts with at least six innings pitched and three runs or less allowed but did not get the win. deGrom also fired 24 straight quality starts along with making 29 starts during which he surrendered three runs or less. Beneath the impressive numbers, what fueled deGrom’s breakout?

It starts with mixing up his arsenal. deGrom threw fewer sinkers, trading them for more four-seam fastballs and change-ups. Unleashing more fastballs instead of sinkers provided more strikeouts up in the zone and a jump in infield fly ball percentage from 9.8 in 2017 to 16.3 percent last year. Using the data on Brooks Baseball, here’s deGrom’s pitches last year based on usage, ground ball rates, whiff percentage (Brooks version of swinging strike percentage), batting average and isolated power allowed:

In an attempt to illustrate how deGrom worked against batters, here’s a 3D look courtesy of Statcast:

Changing eye levels with the four-seam and the slider allows deGrom to keep hitters off balance. Plus, with the change-ups generating ground balls could replace the sinker in his arsenal without much change to production. Considering an 18 percent whiff percentage equates to an elite level, deGrom’s slider reached this level with his four-seam and change just missing.

Staying with Statcast, deGrom finished second among all starting pitchers limiting hitters to a 2.5 barrels per plate appearance percentage. He also ranked 18th among all major league pitchers in reducing hard hit rate. Proof lies in the pudding since deGrom finished with a career high in strikeouts minus walks percentage (26.7 percent) after his adjustments last season.

This along with deGrom’s ability to move pitches in and out of the zone should enable him to carry over his success to the season ahead. Here’s one more graphic, displaying his pitches in plot maps:

Again, these only enhance the thought process of using even less sinkers since the curve, slider and change all reach the lower levels of the strike zone, plus below it. Trying to project how deGrom will do will be affected by his pitch usage and some regression. It’s one of the inevitable parts of the game.

deGrom’s xFIP last year of 2.60 represents a solid baseline when forecasting his ERA for 2019. Transitioning to xSTATS, deGrom’s kwFIP of 2.73 agrees with it. Of course, neither number weighs how deGrom will deploy his pitches, but they exist. Predicting wins proves frustrating, see the second paragraph above, deGrom deserved better.

Steamer projects deGrom for a 14 - 9 record in 32 starts over 208 innings with a 252:52 K:BB, 2.93 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. deGrom’s last three years yields a 32 - 27 record with 658 strikeouts in 570.1 innings, a 2.86 ERA, 3.04 xFIP and 1.08 WHIP. He also owns a 13.3 swinging strike percentage, 73.4 contact rate and a 22.6 strikeouts minus walks percentage.

Changes in arsenal can change a pitcher’s projection arc. It remains to be seen if deGrom will continue to shelve the sinker. If he does, wins could follow with an improved team and bullpen while deGrom records an ERA in 2019 at or below his xFIP from last year. Representing the second pitcher being taken in live NFBC drafts, the price on deGrom’s going up, but his reliable baseline makes him a worthy target. Do not pay for last year’s ERA, but do buy the continued metamorphosis of one of baseball’s best starters.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, SteamerProjections.com, xSTATS.org, BrooksBaseball.net