Not many paid much attention when Milwaukee made a waiver claim on Jesus Aguilar on February second of 2017. Aguilar led the Triple-A level in home runs during 2016 with 30 in 137 games for Columbus. Although he owned a career 34.8 on-base percentage in the minors, it seemed like Aguilar could be a quad-A player with some power. Reports centered on Aguilar being a compliment to Eric Thames and would back him up at first base.

Aguilar rode a strong spring training during which he finished with 1.457 on-base plus slugging percentage in 46 at-bats to playing in 133 games in 2017 with 16 home runs. Last season, a tear to Eric Thames ’ thumb opened to the door for Aguilar to take over first base and Aguilar never looked back. He finished with a team high 35 home runs in 492 at-bats, 80 runs, 108 RBI and a .274/.352/.539 slash line.

He also made an appearance in the Home Run Derby at the All-Star game along with winning the final vote contest to join the National League team. So, how can fantasy players assess him going forward? Daily sports players remember him as a player who can mash left-handed pitching with a favorable home ballpark. With this in mind, perhaps exploring his splits could reveal cracks in the armor?

Starting with a misconception, Aguilar hit right-handed pitching as well as southpaws last season:

  • Aguilar versus RHP: 361 at-bats, 58 runs, 26 home runs, 87 RBI, .271/.341/.535
  • Aguilar versus LHP: 131 at-bats, 22 runs, nine home runs, 21 RBI, .282/.379/.550

Pretty solid. In fact, Aguilar hit a home run once every 13.88 at-bats versus right handed pitching and every 14.55 against left-handed pitchers.

Miller Park really benefits left-handed power hitters, but still proves to be a plus park in regards to home runs on batted balls in play. Aguilar did well at home, but actually hit for a higher average and on-base plus slugging on the road:

  • Aguilar at home: 242 at-bats, 37 runs, 18 home runs, 59 RBI, .273/.342/.541
  • Aguilar on the road: 250 at-bats, 43 runs, 17 home runs, 49 RBI, .276/.361/.536

In spite of this, Aguilar homered every 13.44 at-bats in Milwaukee but one every 14.7 in road contests. Still, very similar and splitting hairs.

When delving into his 2018 season, the disparity lies within his splits prior to and after the All-Star game:

  • Aguilar 1H: 272 at-bats, 49 runs, 24 home runs, 70 RBI, .298/.373/.621
  • Aguilar 2H: 250 at-bats, 38 runs, 11 home runs, 38 RBI, .245/.324/.436

Without leaning on the Home Run derby curse, after a career month in June, Aguilar’s July cratered resulting in a .202/.321/.449 slash line but he still swatted six home runs in 89 at-bats. This skewed his second half numbers along with a 48 point differential in BABIP. After the calendar turned to August, Aguilar rebounded. Over the last two months, he hit .267/.348/.475 with 29 runs, 10 home runs and 34 RBI with a home run every 18.3 at-bats. Perhaps this could be a baseline for his upcoming season?

Prior to diving into his Steamer projection, it’s worth looking at bit of his batted ball data along with plate discipline. Aguilar increased his contact to 72.6 percent in 2018 while cutting down on his swinging strike rate in spite of his O-Swing (chase rate outside the strike zone) rising by two percent. He also raised his walk percentage while cutting down on strikeouts. Aguilar also launched a home run every 14.06 at-bats on the season with a .264 isolated power, 44 percent hard hit rate, 23.8 home run per fly ball percentage and pulled the ball 43.5 percent of the time.

Here’s a look at his spray chart from 2018 with exit velocity instead of his hit results, courtesy of Statcast:

Aguilar averaged a 93.8 MPH exit velocity on his line drives and fly balls last season, which this chart highlights leaving out ground ball data. According to Statcast, Aguilar also averaged a launch angle of 16.1 but check out what happens when he can elevate a pitch:

With the knowledge of Aguilar’s surge in the first half with some regression in the second, he still finished the season strong. Using his xSTATS data, Aguilar’s expected slash of .276/.355/.538 almost matches his 2018 total in each component. Using his last two years as guide for a projection, Aguilar’s expected average would be .265 with 44.6 expected home runs.

Over the last two years, Aguilar’s accrued 771 at-bats with 120 runs, 51 home runs, 160 RBI and a .271/.344/.527 line. His power predictors align with his 2018 totals and compared to first basemen with at least 750 plate appearances ranks tied for third in home run per fly rate, fifth in hard hit percentage along with tied for 12th in home runs.

Steamer projects Aguilar for 146 games, 540 at-bats, 74 runs, 29 home runs, 84 RBI and a .242/.317/.453 slash line. Perhaps it’s the lack of a track record, his minor league numbers portending a collapse in average or just perception. Even if using Aguilar’s expected home run per at-bat total of 17.28, he would hit 31 with this many at-bats.

Paying for a full repeat does not come with great expense. In early NFBC average draft positions, Aguilar’s the sixth first baseman off the board on average at pick 79 with a range of 62-to-100 in 30-plus drafts. Home runs declined last season and Aguilar should log enough at-bats in a strong Brewers lineup to stay relevant in fantasy, even if his average migrates to his expected average (.265), which coincides with his last 183 at-bats of last year.

There could be some regression in Aguilar’s counting statistics based on where he hits and ultimately on how many at-bats he ends up with in 2019, but the power, on-base skills and skill set suggests Aguilar’s for real. Treat him accordingly in drafts, first base will not be as deep as years past.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, MiLB.com, BaseballSavant.com, BrooksBaseball.net, xSTATS.org, SteamerProjections.com