In a season during which Joey Votto disappointed, a power breakout by Eugenio Suárez cushioned the blow in the Reds lineup. Despite breaking his thumb on April eighth, Suarez crushed 34 home runs in only 143 games. He also scored 79 runs with 104 RBI, one stolen base and a .283/.366/.526 slash line. Suarez finished the season as one of only seven players with at least a .283 average, 30-plus home runs and more than 100 RBI joining J.D. Martínez , Christian Yelich , Manny Machado , Nolan Arenado , Trevor Story and Javier Báez .

Yet, he continues to be underrated in the fantasy community. Although his home run total garners the most attention from last season, Suarez almost replicated his batted ball data from 2017 except for surges in home run per fly ball percentage (up almost six percent) and in hard hit rate where he improved by almost 15 percent. This fueled his home run growth. Here’s a visual of his power indicators, home runs per fly ball percentage, hard hit rate and pull percentage over the last three seasons:

Note how his hard hit rate and pull percentage worked in unison after his return from the disabled list. Suarez also proved consistent in plate discipline, but did reduce his O-Contact (contact outside the strike zone) while improving his Z-Contact (in the strike zone). Like many hitters, Suarez prefers the ball in the lower third of the strike zone, so when he faces sinker ball pitchers or ones who keep the ball down in the zone, Suarez should fare well. Here’s his zone profile highlighting his isolated power last season courtesy of Brooks Baseball:

Although Suarez tailed off a bit in the second half, he still maintained a better than career hard hit percentage in each but did see his strikeout percentage increase after the All-Star break. Over the last two seasons, Suarez has appeared in 301 games with 167 runs, 61 home runs, 190 RBI, six stolen bases and a .272/.368/.496 line. Along with these statistics, here’s his underlying data in support of them:

  • 24.1 line drive percentage, 38.3 ground ball percentage, 37.6 fly ball percentage
  • 20.6 home run per fly percentage, 42.5 pull percentage, 41.2 hard hit percentage
  • 12 percent walk rate, 23.2 strikeout percentage, .224 isolated power
  • 77.3 contact percentage, 9.8 swinging strike percentage, 24.9 O-Swing

When trying to discern how to project his 2019 numbers, the recent trends during his last two seasons suggest he’s in the midst of his power prime. Suarez will not turn 28 until July. Comparing his last two seasons to his expected statistics, Suarez possesses an expected average of .275 with 50.4 expected home runs. Calling Great American Ballpark helps defray too much regression in terms of power, so if Suarez carries over the gains in hard hit percentage along with the improved Reds lineup, he could exceed his RBI totals from last year with more traffic on the bases and health.

Steamer projects Suarez for 541 at-bats with 79 runs, 28 home runs, 88 RBI, four stolen bases and a .257/.348/.466 slash. This aligns more with his three year averages rather than the last two seasons spike. While 2018 could represent his peak, Suarez should be able to beat his Steamer projection in all the counting categories except home runs and steals. Also, use his expected average of .275 as his baseline rather than the .257 number above.

Although Suarez continues to prove his worth, his NFBC average draft position ranks him eighth at his position and 52nd overall in early drafts. His range of 37-to-70 illustrates the divide of trust to invest in his profile. Personally, projecting him for 87 runs, 27 home runs, 111 RBI and an average in the .270’s for the year ahead. Stability with a chance to provide more makes Suarez an attractive target in the season ahead.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com, MLB.com, xSTATS.org, SteamerProjections.com, BrooksBaseball.net