As volatile as the stock market, investing in saves continues to be risky business in fantasy baseball. It feels like the category shrinks each season with the analytics push and traditional bullpen roles dissipating. There are committees, high leverage match-up pitchers, openers, effectors and fewer closers. Perhaps no other position reflects recency bias in terms of value from season to season than relief pitching.

Which leads owners to the familiar crossroads, to invest in saves or ride the FAAB wave all season long chasing the closer du jour? Well, like many relationships, it’s complicated. There’s no simple answer other than trusting one’s instincts. In an effort to help discern not only when the dreaded closer run will occur, identifying targets along with fallback options will be necessary to procure saves in 2019.

For starters, here’s a list of teams with the number of relievers to record at least 10 saves last year:

  • Houston Astros - 3
  • Milwaukee Brewers - 3
  • Atlanta Braves - 2
  • Chicago Cubs - 2
  • Kansas City Royals - 2
  • Miami Marlins - 2
  • New York Mets - 2
  • Philadelphia Phillies - 2
  • San Diego Padres - 2
  • San Francisco Giants - 2
  • Tampa Bay Rays - 2
  • Texas Rangers - 2

Some of this spike can be attributed to trades or injuries, but it’s certainly worth noting. Houston’s bullpen will be as deep as A.J. Hinch’s propensity to change closers in years past. At least five of the teams above enter spring training with a closer competition or a committee approach.

Taking the saves-investigation a bit further, here’s a list of teams with at least five or more pitchers to register at least one save last year:

  • 10 - Chicago White Sox
  • 9 - Los Angeles Angels, Philadelphia Phillies
  • 8 - Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, New York Yankees
  • 7 - Chicago Cubs, Cleveland Indians, New York Mets, Tampa Bay Rays, Washington Nationals
  • 6 - Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, San Francisco Giants, St. Louis Cardinals, Texas Rangers
  • 5 - Toronto Blue Jays

Feeling lucky? It’s not all doom and gloom since the actual number of saves increased last year. However, the number of pitchers to record them in volume did become even more scarce:

Due the shrinking number of “reliable” closers, the price continues to escalate in preseason drafts. In an effort to identify when the run will occur, it’s around the fourth round in 15-team NFBC drafts, the seventh round in a 14-team expert draft and in the 15-team FSTA draft, it also ensued in the seventh round with 16 relievers taken between the fifth through the 10th rounds. Broken down it looks like this:

  • 15-Team NFBC ADP’s: Third round (1), fourth round (3), fifth round (4), sixth round (2), seventh round (4), eighth round (1), ninth round (1)
  • FSWA 14-Team Draft: Fifth round (2), seventh round (3), eighth round (5), ninth round (1), 10th round (2), 11th round (2), 13th round (2)
  • FSTA 15-Team Draft: Fifth round (2), sixth round (2), seventh round (5), eighth round (2), ninth round (2), 10th round (3), 11th round (2)

Before delving into what players look like within the average draft positions, according to NFBC data, last year in 15-team leagues, the average saves total to win leagues of 68 and in 12-team leagues of 85 seem low. But, they make for benchmarks to shoot for in the year ahead. It could mean backloading rosters with guys who could save 10 saves at the end of the year. So knowing the player pool and team tendencies will be pivotal.

As alluded to above, closers continue to suffer from recency bias. Fantasy owners drive up the best performances from the previous season and do not focus on skills or opportunity. Here’s the average draft positions from 2017 with the prior year’s underlying data:

Injuries struck Zach Britton, he just changed it to Zack, so sticking with his old way for the chart, and Mark Melancon . But other surged in the year ahead. Seung-Hwan Oh lost his job and drifted away from closing duties. Now for last year’s average draft position:

Fantasy owners seemed to do well at the top until Kenley Jansen suffered heart issues, Corey Knebel tore his hamstring, Aroldis Chapman dealt with tendinitis in his knee, Roberto Osuna lost time to suspension and Ken Giles hit himself before his trade to Toronto. Also, Cody Allen cratered and lost his grip on the closer role once Cleveland traded for Brad Hand . Which leads to this year’s current average draft position with the same underlying statistics:

Edwin Díaz recorded 57 saves and thrived. His reward, a trade to the Mets. Blake Treinen cashed in on his sleeper status last year on our site and rewarded his owners. Craig Kimbrel remains a free agent, and if Greg Holland taught owners anything last year, being in camp helps pitchers. There’s already reports the Reds, who hired the Brewers pitching coach, will deploy Raisel Iglesias when he’s most needed, so his save totals could go down slightly, but his strikeouts may increase.

In an effort to prepare for drafts, knowing when the run will commence along with who will go off the board as the top-10 helps. But what else should fantasy players be keying on? Skills. When Josh Hader broke out in the second half of 2017, he flashed his tremendous upside with strikeouts, while cutting down his walk rates. Using this as a guide, here’s a chart of the relievers in last year’s second half who fit the profile:

Many will not believe in the breakout potential by Jose Leclerc or Kirby Yates , but ignoring them at their present price points would be a mistake. Please read each players profile in our draft guide which details how they could not only rack up 90 or more strikeouts, but keep a low WHIP along with getting 30 or more saves if not traded. With average draft positions past 100, both Yates and LeClerc make a perfect pair to a Felipe Vázquez to target 60-plus saves this year.

It’s surprising to see Ryan Pressly on the list above and not Roberto Osuna . Again, A. J. Hinch does not show much patience with closers, if Osuna struggles or does not assimilate in the Houston clubhouse, Pressly could see some save opportunities. At worst, Pressly could vulture wins with strikeout upside.

Just when it feels like Kenley Jansen ’s drifting from the top tier, could he rebound and turn in one more season of fantasy glory? Absolutely. Speaking of a bounce back, Corey Knebel just missed this list with a 14.7 swinging strike percentage, 35 strikeouts minus walk percentage and xFIP of 1.89 in the second half last year. Get all the shares after pick 130 of him one can get. Even in a shared role, 20 or more saves with his strikeouts and ratios will be worth the wait.

If fear of missing out affects an owner, by all means go get Edwin Díaz or Blake Treinen . Armed with elite skills and a secure spot in the ninth inning it makes sense, except paying for a career year rarely works out with closers. Heed the charts above.

However, handcuffing will be a thing this year for closers. In fact, some of the teams which could require two late round fliers will be discussed briefly to stay ahead of the competition:

  • Boston - Matt Barnes appears to be the frontrunner to get saves but he will compete this spring with Ryan Brasier for the role. Keep an eye on dark horse Tyler Thornburg . If Thornburg’s healthy, he could be a factor as well. Deep sleeper, Dustin Feltman who threw frisbees for Texas Christian University last year.
  • Chicago White Sox - A battle between Álex Colomé and Kelvin Herrera seems likely. Leaning Colome here until they trade him in July then hang on to the knowledge they used 10 different relievers for a save last year.
  • Kansas City - It seemed like Wily Peralta would reprise his closing duties from the end of last year, then the Royals signed Brad Boxberger . Since both can be ratio killers, avoid unless desperate. If Richard Lovelady or Kyle Zimmer get a look in the second half, then it could be time to pounce.
  • Arizona - While many seem to be coronating Archie Bradley , do not be surprised if Greg Holland wrests the closing role from him. After joining the Nationals, Holland finished last year with 0.84 ERA over 21.1 innings with 25 strikeouts. Sleeper alert on Yoan Lopez who needs seasoning but could be a second half saves target.
  • Atlanta - Could be even money on Arodys Vizcaíno or A.J. Minter winning the job or splitting it. Going to lean on the younger and healthier pitcher from last year, so Minter will be the pivot here. Max Fried could join the bullpen full-time and be a Josh Hader -lite in league only formats.
  • Miami - Both Drew Steckenrider and Adam Conley shared duties last year. Then, the team added Sergio Romo along with announcing they will play match-ups in the ninth.
  • Philadelphia - Does any fantasy owner want to tie his saves to Gabe Kapler? Adding David Robertson made sense and he’s a steady option with 57 saves over the last three years. He and Seranthony Dominguez make an intriguing combination, but it will be a timeshare.
  • St. Louis - Our fantasy general manager feels it will be Jordan Hicks as the primary closer with Andrew Miller reprising his role in Cleveland. If this means Hicks gets treated like Cody Allen during his time with the Indians, he’s a buy at his price. Miller, if healthy, could get 10 saves with ratio help, but there’s mileage on his arm.
  • Washington - Sean Doolittle ’s innings totals in each of the last three years: 39 innings (2016), 51.1 innings (2017), 45 innings (2018). Doolittle’s an elite reliever when healthy, but paying full retail for 65 innings seems risky. Trevor Rosenthal could be the cheapest 15 saves in drafts right now.

Last, but not least, some deep sleepers which will be covered in more detail closer to draft season when usage patterns in spring develop along with more clarity on bullpens. But, some names to stash in the late round of league only drafts or in 50 round draft and hold formats in the NFBC:

It’s apparent bullpens will continue to frustrate those who play fantasy baseball. Knowing the trends, reading the draft room or auction and having a plan will defray losing out on saves. Punting a category rarely works out, so formulate a plan, insulate it with pivots and dominate. Target skills and role, not last year’s saves. Adapt and be aggressive, saves will ensue.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp/baseball

https://www.rtsports.com/labr-mixed-draft

https://www.rtsports.com/siriusx