Chasing one of the most difficult commodities to roster this year proves, once again, to be saves. They are in decline and bullpens continue to morph into fluid situations. Analytics did not kill the save, they just made them more difficult to identify. With this in mind, top closers on the best teams continue to rise in average draft position (ADP). Even one without a 40-save season in his career, less than 100 strikeouts each season with his present team and one who finished last year needing an endorsement as the closer during the playoffs.

Yes, Aroldis Chapman .

Battling knee tendinitis last year, Chapman struggled with his command, finishing in the bottom two-percent in walk percentage but in the top one-percent of strikeout rate according to Statcast. He’s a bit of an enigma. It will take a top-75 pick in recent NFBC data to roster him. On average, Chapman goes off the board around pick number 74 through 106 drafts over the last month with a range of 52-to-94 in them. This puts him in the range of other volatile players like Yasiel Puig , David Dahl and Marcell Ozuna .

However, Chapman has only recorded at least 60 innings once in the last five years when he logged 66.1 in 2015. He’s fifth in baseball with just under 7,000 pitches thrown at 95 MPH-plus dating back to 2008 trailing only Justin Verlander , Stephen Strasburg , Gerrit Cole and David Price . But, if he cannot throw strikes or allows traffic, Chapman proved vulnerable last year. Especially versus Boston.

In the second half, Chapman only appeared in 14 games with six saves in 11.1 innings. He only generated a 35.3 ground ball percentage with 25 strikeouts against 14 walks facing a total of 58 batters. This equates to a strikeouts-minus-walks percentage of 19, a 1.85 WHIP and 4.21 SIERA. It’s one thing to invest in a pitcher due to migrate towards the mean, but Chapman’s also opened spring training with reduced velocity. There’s time for it to rebound, but, it’s still worth monitoring.

While Chapman happily reports his knee feels healthy, it looks like he bulked up this winter which is not necessarily a great recipe for tendinitis. He struggled with both his vertical release point and horizontal release last year which can lend itself to the sore knee affecting his mechanics. There’s a chance his velocity returns, the slider remains nasty and he racks up a career year. But paying full-price for it seems risky.

During Chapman’s limited sample in the second half last year, he yielded a 35.3 hard hit percentage and 29.4-line drive rate. This coupled with a first strike pitch percentage of only 50 percent hints he did not trust the stuff. Pitching from behind in the count forces Chapman to throw more fastballs, which if flat, can be hit. It also takes away from hitters chasing his nasty slider.

It’s not all doom and gloom for those taking Chapman at his present price point. He did save 32 games last year with a 2.45 ERA, 2.58 xFIP and recording 93 strikeouts. However, most draft him thinking they will get a high volume of saves, more than 100 strikeouts and a dominant closer. Banking on these types of numbers could be a mistake. In fact, in regards to closers, it’s a rare feat. Only seven relievers racked up more than 100 strikeouts last year. Brad Hand and Dellin Betances remain the only two do it in each of the last three seasons. Chapman did in 2015, but still gets valued like it happens every year. Could he do it again in 2019? Absolutely. Will I pay to find out? Absolutely not.

When a pitcher provides fantasy players with the warning signs, heed them. It’s better to be out a year early than too late. A top-75 pick on a pitcher hoping to be healthy seems too rich. If Chapman were at full health, would New York sign both Zack Britton and Adam Ottavino ? In a volatile market at the riskiest position, overpaying for Chapman’s “Glory Days” will not be in the offing for my teams. He can be for yours, but like Clint Eastwood mused, feeling lucky? I do, but investing in Kirby Yates , Jose Leclerc or Corey Knebel instead. Like John F. Kennedy, I will be trying to avoid a Cuban Missile crisis.

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Statistical Credits:

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

https://playnfbc.shgn.com/adp/baseball