| Age: | 28 |
| Bats/Throws: | R/R |
| Height/Weight: | 6'6", 246 lbs |
| Position: | Outfielder |
After years of fantasy disappointment, Giancarlo Stanton finally answered all the questions about what could happen if he stayed healthy for a full season. Stanton only missed three games last year which, resulted in him leading the majors in home runs (59), RBI (132), and isolated power (.350). He ranked third in runs (123) and fifth in both weighted on-base average (.410) along with weighted runs created plus (156). As impressive as his gains in average, it lies more in his different approach last year.
Stanton converted to a more closed stance in order to shorten his swing and induce more contact. A player of his physical stature does not need to swing from his heels in order to create high exit velocities (more on this soon). When looking at his plate discipline numbers, there’s some interesting trends, which if he carries over to the Bronx, could mean another huge season awaits fantasy owners. In the chart, take note of his reduction in strikeout percentage along with a higher contact rate:
Although it’s a large drop in strikeouts and swinging strike rate, Stanton could (should) see some migration back towards his career rates, but it may not be as drastic as many predict. He’s still young enough to make adjustments in his contact since Stanton lost so much time yet remains within his power peak. Which could be scary for opposing pitchers in Yankee Stadium. In the next chart, an illustration of his changing contact with no affect on his power:
With his contact on the rise and working well with isolated power, could Stanton reach another level this year? Odds suggest it will be difficult to repeat last season, but moving to one of the friendliest hitting venues for half of his home games will not create much regression. In fact, some of his past fly ball outs could result in home runs in spite of too much variance shown in his spray chart last year with Yankee Stadium as the backdrop:
Trying to process all the data to arrive at a baseline value of Stanton for the upcoming year means looking at his expected statistics before moving to a projection. According to xSTATS, Stanton’s slash line last year should have been .277/.372/.593 with an expected BABIP of .295, xOBA of .401 and 51.1 expected home runs. Not too shabby, it’s apparent Stanton’s power should be considered inflated, he just stayed on the field last year.
Plus, Stanton’s a Statcast hero hitting baseballs with monstrous exit velocities. Why could this be important? Repeating last year with Yankee Stadium should be much more viable due to the ballpark and when taking a look at his batted ball events from the last three years, it’s not rocket science:
Stanton hits the ball with lift and with an average exit velocity of just under 100 MPH on his fly balls and line drives last year, his new home will suit him as well as pinstripes. His projections reflect last year’s consummation of his skill set as well. Using four different sites on Fangraphs, Stanton’s cumulative average projection for next year would look like this:
- Stanton average 2018 projection: 524 at-bats, 105 runs, 56 home runs, 132 RBI, 2 stolen bases and a slash line with a .273-to-.286 batting average.
With the knowledge of his changed stance and expected slash from last year, Stanton should not collapse towards his career slash of .268/.360/.554, though some projections will reflect this. Even if Stanton moved to his expected average of .277, he’s still heading in the right direction. Last, the cleanup hitters on the Yankees last year produced 115 RBI and scored 99 runs in 643 at-bats. This included Starlin Castro, Didi Gregorius and Matt Holliday accruing the most games played hitting fourth with 117 games between them. Suggesting Stanton’s an upgrade should be one of the easiest things to surmise this year in fantasy.
Even if Stanton does not reach the apex of statistics he posted last year, any regression to the mean should be slight due to his age within his power peak, moving to a hitter friendly park in a lineup which will score runs in bunches. Stanton’s also an on-base plus slugging percentage machine who should thrive with the Yankees. Of course, playing in New York can be difficult, but with all the struggles and injury comebacks Stanton’s overcome, it should not be too tough. Simply repeating last year justifies where he’s going in drafts and auctions. A run at 60 home runs does not seem out of reach.
It’s always been a matter of when, not if, for Stanton to finally explode like he did last year. Here’s hoping for an encore in 2018.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, xSTATS.org, BaseballSavant.com, ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski, Steamerprojections.com, THE BAT courtesy of Derek Carty, RosterResource.com