| Age: | 26 |
| Bats/Throws: | L/R |
| Height/Weight: | 6'4", 200 lbs |
| Position: | Outfielder |
Often in sports, a player with a stable skill set about to enter his peak years benefits from a trade to a positive environment, which may enable a new level of production. This year’s candidate, Christian Yelich. Known for his ability to hit for average, strong on-base skills and propensity to hit ground balls, Yelich could be in store for his first 20 home run and stolen base season as a major league player.
Although he’s accomplished the feats in separate seasons, Yelich’s yet to do so in the same one. His career best in stolen bases happened in 2014 when he finished with 21 and he’s one year removed from his highest home run total of the same number. Yelich scored 100 runs for the first time of his career last year and drove in 98 in 2016. In spite of reaching these numbers over the last four years, what can he achieve in this one?
Starting with his baseline, Yelich seems like a sure bet to make a run at hitting .300. Over the course of the last three years, he’s slashed .293/.371/.447 with a .818 OPS. Suggesting he’s moving to a better offense seems to slight playing with Dee Gordon, Marcell Ozuna and Giancarlo Stanton last season, but in terms of overall depth, the Brewers will utilize a deeper lineup. Plus, do not underestimate Miller Park compared to his former home field in Miami.
Using Fantasy Alarm’s ballpark factors, Miami registered a negative 13 percent versus Milwaukee’s positive 3.5 percent, which should allow Yelich to hit more home runs even though he’s not a power hitter. Of course, ignoring Yelich’s 45 percent rate of batted ball events with an exit velocity of 95 MPH-plus would not be wise. His 213 hard hit events ranked fourth in baseball of players with at least 100 on the season. Bearing in mind a good amount would be ground balls, it still underscores Yelich does make hard contact.
Staying with the Miller Park factor, Yelich could be in line for a return to the 20-home run barrier he crossed once so far in his career. Here’s a look at his spray chart from last year with Milwaukee as the overlay:
Since Yelich does not rely on pulling the ball for power, the shift to Miller Park should not only enhance his home runs, but his batting average as well. Plus, here’s a bonus look at his career spray chart with Miller Park:
Using splits to predict the future can be a fallacy, but Yelich’s career home and road numbers seem to yield some interesting results:
- Yelich career in Miami: 317 games, 1,187 at-bats, 174 runs, 18 home runs, 114 RBI, 33 stolen bases, .278/.363/.396, .118 isolated power, 113 weighted runs created plus
- Yelich career on road: 325 games, 1,291 at-bats, 195 runs, 41 home runs, 179 RBI, 39 stolen bases, .301/.374/.465, .163 isolated power, 128 weighted runs created plus
Not only does Yelich hit for more power on the road, but his counting statistics, slash lines and on-base plus slugging percentage all trend up. This cannot be a coincidence. With no discernible differences in Yelich’s hard hit percentage or pull rates in these splits, he did hit fly balls two-percent more often away from Miami and almost doubled his home run per fly ball percentage in road games at 20.5 percent compared to 10.9 in home ones.
One of the best things about Yelich lies within his plate discipline. His swinging strike percentage last year of 8.6 percent falls in line with his career mark of 8.4 percent. Plus, Yelich’s contact rate align directly with his career marks. With his three year slash lines above as a baseline for a projection, sites seem split on how Yelich will do in regards to his counting statistics. Some of this will depend on where he hits in the lineup, but here’s a look at his forecast from three sites:
There’s really no arguing with the slash lines noting three hundred upside for Yelich. However, last year, the lead-off hitters for Milwaukee scored 91 runs with 60 RBI, but the cumulative totals for the second hitters translated to 120 runs with 85 RBI. Yelich and Cain could split time in both spots, but if Yelich hits first versus right-handed pitching, it could depress his RBI total, while adding to his runs scored.
Some will see the power of 23 by Steamer, which usually leans conservative in its projections, but note his batted ball data from the last three years in this chart from Fangraphs:
While Yelich hits too many ground balls to reach a total of 30 in a season, although it’s not out of the range of outcomes, it’s slight. But, he’s been vacillating between line drives and fly balls with fly balls trending up by five percent in each of the last two years. Plus, here’s a peek at the same time frame with weighted on-base average, hard hit percentage and home runs per fly ball rate:
Last, but not least, the number to take the most umbrage with may be his stolen base projection. Yelich finished 16-for-18 last year (88 percent success rate) in his stolen base attempts and reached this total in two of the last three years. Factor in Milwaukee stole the second most bases as a team last year in the majors with the second most tries and it seems like Yelich will have the green light on the bases, especially with his results from last year.
Again, not going to go off the rails, but Yelich could be in line for a 21 home run and stolen base season with a chance for 25 of each. Yelich’s expected home runs last year according to xSTATS of 22 suggests it’s very possible. If this happened, a career year could be in store with another 100 run season and an average at or near .300. This proves to be gold when building a base of players on a roster and taking a player like Yelich allows a team to draft a flawed power hitter like Joey Gallo as a batting average buffer to roster power. Remember, when everyone’s trying to find steals at a time when power numbers peak, do not ignore home runs.
Christian Yelich makes for a terrific target in fantasy this season due to his tremendous profile as a hitter, the potential for a 20/20 season plus providing batting average. One of his counting statistics could ebb back due to where he hits, but the overall benefits of Yelich defray a loss of RBI if he leads off this year. He’s worth the reach.
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Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com, BaseballSavant.com, xSTATS.org, MLB.com