Austin Barnes

Age:28
Bats/Throws:R/R
Height/Weight:5'10", 190 lbs
Position:Catcher

Existing as a member of the Austin Barnes fan club, the recent awareness of his potential value seems validating. Formerly blocked by J.T. Realmuto, Barnes fantasy value aligns well as a clone of one of the top catchers in fantasy. Barnes also owns elite contact skills and plate discipline with some underlying speed to round out his profile.

In 102 games last year, Barnes slashed .289/.408/.486 with eight home runs and four stolen bases, but what’s his ceiling for 2018 while trying to coexist with Yasmani Grandal?

Herein lies the key question to those speculating in a Barnes breakout this season. For starters, here’s Barnes ranks against catchers with at least 250 plate appearances last year:

  • First in weighted runs created plus (wRC+), 142
  • First in on-base percentage, .408
  • First in weighted on-base average (wOBA), .386
  • Second in swinging-strike percentage, 4.7 percent
  • Second in contact, 87.2 percent
  • Second in walk percentage, 14.9 percent
  • 12th in isolated power, .197 (ahead of Evan Gattis, Brian McCann and J.T. Realmuto)

All of the numbers above seem to validate the heightened interest in Barnes. Add his xSTATS (expected statistics) with a .285/.405/.445 slash line and expected on-base average of .372 to underscore how well Barnes did last year offensively in his time share at catcher with the Dodgers.

But this statement above also factors into how to temper expectations for Barnes moving forward. He splits time behind the plate with Grandal. Although Barnes rakes versus left-handed pitching, unless he takes a larger part of the workload behind the plate, his overall impact in fantasy could be limited.

Catchers for the Dodgers finished with 676 total at-bats last year with Grandal garnering 438 of them, or 64.8 percent. Barnes did turn the tide in the second half with an even 50 percent split for each, but it bears monitoring. During the second half, Barnes walked (20 times) more than he struck out (19 times) but traded some power for discipline.

What’s driving up the hopes for Barnes prospectors? Post-season playing time. Barnes accrued 44 percent of the at-bats in September and October to end the regular season and then grabbed 46 of the 54 at-bats in the playoffs. Unfortunately, Barnes cratered a bit with the opportunity, but it’s worth noting.

Trying to translate this to the season will be difficult. Early reports by the team’s beat writer Andy McCullough centers on Barnes getting time behind the plate versus left-handed pitching, but Grandal receiving the plus side of the platoon versus right-handed pitchers. Barnes should see his playing time rise as a result by cutting into Grandal’s total at-bats going forward.

Barnes not only provides better plate discipline than Grandal, but more upside in terms of fantasy due to the speed factor. Baking in the second-half split of at-bats along with the uptick in playing time in the playoffs, my original projection of Barnes reaching 328 at-bats seems palatable. Most projections for Barnes seem to center on 300 at-bats, give or take. According to NFBC average drafts, Barnes will be taken as the 12th catcher in the 12th round.

Fantasy owners searching for a catcher who will not damage batting average and features possible upside in speed will speculate on Barnes. But having him as a team’s first catcher in a high-stakes league could be risky due to the playing time questions which linger. Counting stats matter. Also, Barnes registered his highest career home run per fly ball percentage last year at 15.7 percent. Entering his power peak, it could be sustained, but Barnes also hit ground balls 45 percent of the time. He also stole four bases in the first half with zero after the break.

His numbers should increase in regards to counting statistics due to more playing time. But targeting him prior to other catchers with a clearer path to playing time could be costly, or could create a buying opportunity. It’s part of what makes Barnes outcomes so varied. Using the team’s cumulative results from catcher from last year as a baseline along with more perceived playing time, here’s reasonable projections taking into account potential at-bats:

  • Austin Barnes projection: 49 runs, 12 home runs, 49 RBI, six stolen bases, 91 hits in 328 at-bats (.277)
  • With 400 at-bats (59 percent playing time): 59 runs, 14 home runs, 58 RBI, seven stolen bases, 111 hits
  • With 450 at-bats (66 percent playing time): 65 runs, 16 home runs, 67 RBI, eight stolen bases, 125 hits

Deciding when to target Barnes in drafts should factor in the amount of playing time one believes he will receive. As with anything, value will be relative to production. Could his power see a pullback while in turn he runs the bases a bit more aggressively? It’s within the realm of outcomes. Due to the inherent risk, be aware of the potential split in playing time with the Dodgers in order to keep Barnes expectations realistic.

Those in leagues with daily lineups and one catcher could roster both Barnes and Grandal in order to capitalize on the two players combined production last year. Barnes will be a borderline first catcher in most leagues and a terrific second catcher, but until he shows the ability to maintain the power and slash lines over an expanded workload, it’s appropriate to price him based upon those variables. There could be a step forward based on how much he plays. Draft accordingly.