| Age: | 21 |
| Bats/Throws: | B/R |
| Height/Weight: | 5'8", 155 lbs |
| Position: | Second Base |
Every year, there are players who gain a certain “buzz” as draft season nears. Whether it’s second half splits pointing towards a breakout, a prospect ready to take the next step or one who fills a glaring need due to the changing fantasy landscape, it happens. Could Ozzie Albies qualify for all three criterions?
During the last 30 years, only nine players produced a weighted runs created plus (wRC+) of 110 or higher in more than 240 plate appearances in their Age-20 season. This metric tries to determine a players worth based on hit value but weighted to take away advantages like playing in Coors Field. On the surface, this statistic does not seem overwhelming until seeing some of the names attached to the list. Two players achieved this last year, but prior to it: Carlos Correa, Mike Trout, Jason Heyward, Alex Rodriguez, Ken Griffey Jr., Bryce Harper (two times) and Giancarlo Stanton.
In 2017, both Ozzie Albies and Rafael Devers broke through during their second half debuts to surpass the two criteria put forth above by Mike Pietrello of MLB.com’s Statcast department. At a time when many fantasy owners search for speed upside, there’s hope in Albies who stole 29 bases between Triple-A and the majors last year in 154 games. However, could be there be even more reason to view him with rose colored glasses?
After starting eight for his first 47 in his first two weeks, Albies finished the season with 54 hits over his last 170 at-bats (.318) with six three-hit games in his last 35 played and includes a 13-game hit streak. He also stole five bases during his last seven games heightening hopes for his fantasy prospects in the year ahead. Hitting .285 or better in Triple-A and the majors along with a combined 101 runs, 15 home runs, 69 RBI and 29 steals combined in 154 games will do this.
Before delving into his future, Albies only accrued 1,555 minor league at-bats prior to his promotion to Atlanta. Many focused on Dansby Swanson as the Braves infielder to own in 2017 due to his clear path to playing time along with the chance to provide double digit home runs and stolen bases. In 2014, Albies split time in two Rookie level leagues slashing .364/.446/.444 with one home run and 22 stolen bases in 57 games. Take note of his on-base percentage being higher than his slugging.
Albies jumped up to Single-A for 98 games in 2015 with no home runs, but 21 doubles and eight triples. He developed gap-to-gap swings as a switch-hitter with 29 stolen bases and a .310/.368/.404 slash line. He progressed his slugging past the on-base percentage in spite of no dingers. It’s at this level where Albies really hit the ball into the ground, averaging 1.91 ground ball outs compared to fly ball outs using MiLB.com’s measurements.
Things started to shift for Albies in 2016 when he split time between Double-A and Triple-A during his Age-19 season. Quite daunting, but he seemed up to the task. After scorching the Southern League with a .321/.391/.467 slash line in 82 games with four home runs and 22 steals, he jumped up to Triple-A Gwinnett. Albies did go through an adjustment period during his first pass in the International League hitting .248/.307/.351 over his last 56 games of the year. He did hit two more homers with nine steals, but planning on a stint with Atlanta in 2017 seem a bit far fetched.
However, when Albies kicked the door down with Atlanta after slashing .285/.330/.440 during his repeat in Triple-A through 97 games, things were changing. Albies cut his ground ball out ratio to fly ball outs to below one (0.97) and he hit nine home runs with 21 stolen bases in 23 attempts. This last point seems salient since Albies best stolen base conversion rate (90.6 percent) occurred in 2017 with him swiping five bases over his last seven games. In 2014, Albies went 22-for-27 on steals (81.4 percent), then 29-for-37 in 2015 (78.4 percent) before cratering to his worst season in regards to stolen base success with 30 steals in 43 tries (69.8 percent) in 2016.
Not only did his stolen base success drop in this year, but it also resulted in Albies on-base percentage cratering to .307 during his Triple-A debut. He redeemed himself in 2017 with a strong showing, but when promoted to Atlanta, Albies went through the rough 14-game patch to start his major league career.
One word comes to mind in regards to this, resilient. Albies did not lose his way during his return to Triple-A, he changed his launch angle putting more baseballs in the air, allowed his power to develop and returned to his strong on-base ways. Albies minor league slash of .304/.365/.424 bodes well to him being on base. Which will be a key to his success if he nestles in batting second this year ahead of Freddie Freeman.
As miscast as Brandon Phillips may have been hitting second more than any other Brave last year (Albies finished second), the lineup spot accrued 693 at-bats scoring a cumulative 87 runs with 16 home runs, 74 RBI and 12 stolen bases with a .264/.306/.390 slash line. During Albies 26 games hitting second, he scored 14 runs with three home runs, 14 RBI and five stolen bases with a .295/.364/.429 slash. His on-base percentage finished 60 points higher than the whole teams combined amount.
Looking at Albies splits, one needs to keep in mind he’s a switch hitter. During his brief stint with Atlanta last year, Albies hit for a lower average against right-handed pitching but held his own with a .273/.337/.456 slash. He did steal seven of his eight bases against them. Versus southpaws, Albies hit .327/.407/.519 with seven walks and six strikeouts in 60 plate appearances.
Shifting to his batted ball data, Albies seems to be growing into his power phase. After hitting one home run during his first two seasons in the minors, he hit six in a combined 552 at-bats between two levels in 2016 or one in every 92 at-bats. Last year, Albies increased this number to one every 42, not eye popping, but enough to keep fantasy owners interested. But if Albies will generate fantasy success, it will be by being on-base and stealing bases.
Keeping in mind his career minor league on-base percentage of .365 along with his 10.3 swinging strike percentage and 80 percent contact rate, Albies should fare well in 2018. But how well will determine his fantasy relevance. Although stolen base totals for fantasy success do not seem to be changing by trying to target 150 in drafts to be successful (This references a number researched by Rob Silver, former NFBC champion), Albies could prove his worth.
Paying for a repeat of last year’s numbers over a full season could be disappointing since only three of the players referenced above using the wRC+ criteria improved in their Age-21 season, how can fantasy owners assess Albies? First, he’s projected to hit second in a lineup which plays half of its games in a plus hitting environment and with on-base skills established, Albies should do well and score more than 80 runs.
Albies also improved his stolen base proficiency last year with a conversion rate over 90 percent. If things break right, he should be able to steal 25 or more bases this season with a chance to surpass 30 if given the green light. After a slow start, Albies finished strong but paying for a batting average over .275 will be risky. It seems like the real gray area here could be the power. Can Albies carry over the power growth to a full season? Again, project for a more palpable number like 10-to-12 and profit on a repeat of his total across two levels from last year.
Not all players who become trendy can merit the hype. Ozzie Albies seems to possess the pedigree, on-base track record and burgeoning power with speed in hand to be a buzz worthy player for 2018. Those in writing circles will not consider Albies a sleeper per se, but with an NFBC average draft position in the 10th round, he could be worth the present price tag.
During the second half last year, Albies not only put himself into the conversation with great players due to his 112 wRC+, he also finished ahead of Robinson Cano, Jonathan Schoop, Whit Merrifield, Dee Gordon and D.J. LeMahieu in this metric. When building a balanced roster this draft season, if there’s a need for speed in the middle infield, remember Albies name.