Randal Grichuk

Age:26
Bats/Throws:R/R
Height/Weight:6'1", 205 lbs
Position:Outfielder

Opportunity arrives in many forms. For Randal Grichuk, it could be transitioning to a team that will place him in right field to replace Jose Bautista as well as benefiting from a much better home hitting environment in Rogers Centre. Grichuk’s role as a fantasy tease is well documented, but as he enters his Age-27 season (Grichuk will turn 27 in August), could there be another level to his power potential?

During the initial phase of research, one name jumped out as a potential comparison; Khris Davis. It began rather innocently with a look at average flyball distance on Baseball Savant. While this number may be important, Grichuk’s barrel rate ranked sixth in baseball last year (10 per plate appearance). At number five with 10.3 per plate appearance was none other than the aforementioned Davis.

In fact, only Aaron Judge, J.D. Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton, Joey Gallo and Davis finished with a higher rate than Grichuk. The list above does provide some inherent risk due to swing and miss tendencies associated with providing power. However, only one player could be taken at a discount this year which should be Grichuk. Not only due to his numbers from last year, but owners who’ve been burned before usually do not forget.

It’s interesting to note fantasy darling Matt Olson finished one spot below Grichuk in this category with 9.7 barrels per plate appearance yet will be drafted, on average, 18 rounds earlier based on current NFBC draft ADP. Will there be less risk with a seventh-round Olson or a 25th-round Grichuk?

While pondering this hypothesis, let’s return to the work at hand, comparing Grichuk to Khris Davis. Prior to being traded from Milwaukee to Oakland, Davis accrued 1,092 at-bats, hitting 60 home runs while averaging one every 18.2 at-bats. Grichuk has launched 66 over 1,291 at-bats to start his career with one every 19.56.

In 2015, Khris Davis’ Age-27 season, he played 121 games, scoring 54 runs, hitting 27 home runs, driving in 66 and stealing five bases with a .247/.323/.505 slash line. He did walk 10 percent of the time with a 27.7 strikeout percentage. Here’s his batted ball data from this same season:

  • 17.2 line-drive percentage, 42.5 groundball rate, 40.3 flyball percentage, 24.5 home run per fly ball percentage, 41.4 pull percentage and 34.8 hard-contact rate.

Last year, Grichuk played 122 games with 53 runs, 22 home runs, 59 RBI and six stolen bases with a .238/.285/.473 slash line. Grichuk walked 5.9 percent of the time with a 30.1 strikeout percentage. Batted ball data:

  • 21.4 line-drive percentage, 35.9 groundball rate, 42.7 flyball percentage, 18.3 home run per fly ball percentage, 51.2 pull percentage, 40.2 hard-contact rate.

It’s apparent Davis owns more patience at the plate, as evidenced by the higher walk percentage in this comparison along with career numbers attached. However, delving into their plate discipline, the playing field levels a bit.

  • Khris Davis 2015: 27.7 O-Swing rate (Swings at pitches outside the strike zone), 68.5 contact rate, 15.2 swinging strike percentage.
  • Randal Grichuk 2017: 35.4 O-Swing, 73.4 contact rate, 13.6 swinging strike percentage.

Although Davis controls the strike zone better, Grichuk makes more contact while swinging and missing less prior to their respective trades. Grichuk’s swinging-strike percentage and contact rates represent career bests. Factor in his 40.6 percent of batted baseball events resulting in an exit velocity above 95 MPH with an average home run distance of 406 feet and Grichuk could be on the precipice of a power breakout.

Adding fuel to the fire, Derek Carty shared this chart on his Twitter feed representing the ballpark effects boost in store for Grichuk.

So far, it’s been established Grichuk can be considered a flawed power hitter with upside, but potential for a low average due to swing and miss tendencies is there. When he makes contact, the ball does jump. This will be punctuated in the next two charts thanks to MLBfarm.com and once again, Baseball Savant. First, here’s Grichuk’s spray chart showing his batted balls in play from Triple-A and the majors in 2017:

Not only does he hit for power to his pull side, but Grichuk can hit the ball with authority to the opposite field. While there’s definite holes in his swing and he can be aggressive, Grichuk’s raw power should be enticing in his new home for half of his games. Here’s his spray chart from last year with Toronto as the overlay:

Note the number of doubles and fly ball outs from 2017 which provide the potential to leave the park in his new home in Rogers Centre.

There’s no guarantee Randal Grichuk will join the Blue Jays and make the leap Khris Davis did upon joining Oakland. Enough statistical data suggests they’re similar players who needed a chance to play full-time without having to look over their shoulder. Davis took his game to another level after his trade and his .247/.305/.524 slash in 2016 would be a welcome number for Grichuk speculators.

Hope lies in Grichuk’s power potential along with his 60-game second half last year which featured 25 runs, 13 home runs, 29 RBI and a .265/.303/.550 slash line in 189 at-bats. Trying to extrapolate these numbers as a projection could provide disappointment, especially if he does not improve in his patience, but musing about Grichuk providing 30 or more home runs with 550 at-bats or more becomes more realistic due to his new hitting environment.

Arriving at a final projection will depend on where Grichuk hits in the lineup as well. Toronto’s counting statistics last year based on where players hit will be a factor. Their aggregate runs plus RBI totals are as follows: batting fifth (180), sixth (123) and seventh (121). Saying Grichuk could be a terrific lottery pick at his present ADP does not seem risky. He could also disappoint and take the route of another flawed power hitter by a different name; Chris Davis,. There’s many possible outcomes for Grichuk in 2018, but fantasy owners should finally find out what he’s capable of with regular playing time in a better ballpark.

Time will ultimately tell, but count me on the side willing to find out if a Khris Davis leap from 2016 is in the offing. Compared to paying full price for Matt Olson for power upside, Grichuk’s case only strengthens.

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