Once again, this week's featured player appears in the midst of a hot streak forcing a determination between a potential breakout or just a spike in production. This happened last year with J.P. Crawford so it comes with a little apprehension. But, over his last 25 games, he's reached safely in 21 of them with 13 runs, three home runs, 10 RBI, a stolen base and a .340/.394/.536 slash line with batting averages depressed across the fantasy landscape. 

More intriguing, he's generated five of his seven barrels all season within this sample during his Age-26 season. His discipline metrics back up the numbers with a 6.7 swinging strike percentage, 84.4 contact rate and 93.6 Z-Contact (in the strike zone) percent during this 25-game stretch. 

Also within this sample, he's produced a weighted runs created plus metric (wRC+) of 159 with a robust .397 weighted on-base average (wOBA). This aligns well with his transition to batting lead-off for the Mariners. Through 17 contests hitting first, Crawford owns a .348/.405/.536 slash with a 10.1 walk percentage, 11 runs, two home runs, eight RBI and a stolen base in 79 plate appearances. 

Representing one of three players to record at least 1.0 wins above replacement (WAR) on offense and defense, it's time to evaluate how Crawford's season may progress. Overall, he's played 68 games spanning 266 plate appearances with 31 runs, four home runs, 24 RBI, two stolen bases and a .280/.346/.397 slash line. Although his power numbers do not move the needle, the recent uptick in power and barrels along with sneaky stolen base production should not be ignored. Two undervalued statistics in fantasy, runs and batting average suggest it may be time to kick the tires on Crawford in 12-team mixed formats. 

So far this year, he's produced 190 batted ball events with seven barrels (3.7 percent) with migration to the mean hinted at perusing his expected numbers. Crawford possesses a .260 expected batting average (xBA), .356 expected slugging (xSLG) and a .308 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA). However, his Statcast data does not tell the whole story. Stil, it will be interesting bookmarks his present rolling xwOBA chart to this stage of the season: 
 

Delving deeper into his results this year on the site, it yields a slight uptick in his ground ball rate (up 1.5 percent) with more fly balls generated (up 4.3 percent) and a slight decline in line drives (down 3.1 percent). He's pulling the ball less, using the middle of the field more and keeping his opposite field rate stable. Being left-handed, Crawford combats the shift by hitting the ball up the middle along with owning the ability to hit to the opposite field illustrated in his spray chart from this season: 

When viewing his plate discipline, more good news emerges. He's upped his zone swing percentage by over seven percentage points while keeping his chase rates stable. Crawford's also become more aggressive, almost doubling his first pitch swing percentage (14.2 points higher than last year) attacking fastballs. Do not ignore the shift to lead-off resulting in him seeing more fastballs fueling his recent success. 

Two things hold him back from a complete breakout, his production at home and hitting for a higher average against right-handed pitching. Although he hit for an average 20 points higher against right-handed pitchers in 2020, this year he's batting .358 versus southpaws compared to .241 facing righties. This will level out. In Seattle, his slash line dips to .225/.345/.324 then spikes to .328/.384/.461 on the road. Hopefully he does not succumb to the huge split difference Willy Adames owned as a member of the Rays, but it should not be ignored. 

Taking all of this into account, here's Crawford's rest-of-the-season projections from varying sites: 

If he can continue hitting lead-off without too much migration to the mean in batting average he could score 80 runs with a chance at double digit home runs and stolen bases. This could be a hot streak or it may be a post-hype prospect putting things together on the precipice of his power peak. It's not expensive to find out, so take a flier on him in your league if he's on the wire and accrue the runs with some batting average upside if his discipline insulates a collapse to the averages reflected in his projections above.

There's a chance J.P. Crawford may in fact be breaking out, his next 75 games will be the determining factor. 

Statistical Credits: 

Fangraphs.com

BaseballSavant.com

Steamerprojections.com

THE BAT and THE BAT X courtesy of Derek Carty

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski