Perhaps the title of this series may not apply to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. , a former top prospect in baseball. Maybe this earmarks his coronation. No matter how one describes it, he's arrived. After an off-season filled with debates about if he's a disappointment to the fantasy community, which position he ends up playing and if his launch angle could improve to the point it unlocked his tremendous power potential.
It's happening. Filter out the noise of exit velocities, they remain above last year's levels across the board due to a bouncier baseball. However, they seem to travel a shorter distance in the air with batting averages and batting averages on balls in play (BABIP) down across the board in the majors.
Guerrero Jr.'s slashing .329/.445/.615 after 40 games, one quarter of the season, with 30 runs, 11 home runs, 30 RBI and even a stolen base with his new svelte frame. Over 173 plate appearances, his walk rate (15.3 percent) sits higher than his strikeout percentage (15 percent) with a career high isolated power (.287) and robust .449 weighted on-base average (wOBA). Yes, he and his teammates benefit from hitting in a minor league ballpark in Dunedin and head to Triple-A Buffalo's park at the onset of June.
After recording three hits on Tuesday, he tied the franchise record for the sixth most times reaching base in his first 40 contests at 77 times. This number leads the majors and among his peers in the American League here's how he ranks in other categories on offense:
Second in on-base percentage (.440)
Second in on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS - 1.049)
Fourth in slugging (.609)
Tied for fourth in home runs (11)
Tied for fifth in walks (27)
Tied-for fifth in total bases (84)
Tied for seventh in RBI (30)
Ninth in batting average (.329)
Seeing his career high in BABIP (.340) may cause some concern for regression. Recalling his upcoming transition to home games in Buffalo, here's his numbers in Sahlen Field last year:
26 games, 108 plate appearances, 20 runs, seven doubles, one triple, five home runs, 22 RBI, a .323/.380/.566 slash and .346 BABIP
Pretty, pretty good. Playing in Buffalo should insulate his numbers and contribute to 30-plus home runs during his Age-22 season. It feels like the launch angle conversation proved a bit contrite, but it's still early on this season with three-quarters of his games on tap.
Through 117 batted ball events this year he's recorded 16 barrels (13.7 percent), 60 hard hits (51.3 percent) and an average exit velocity of 94.4 MPH on them. His exit velocity sits two MPH over last year. Figuring out if this ranks as a hot streak to start the season or a much anticipated breakout shifts to his expected numbers courtesy of Statcast:
.329 batting average versus a .307 expected batting average (xBA)
.615 slugging percentage versus a .583 expected slugging (xSLG)
.449 wOBA versus a .425 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA)
While regression comes for everyone, the expected statistics above do not suggest a collapse by any means. Plus, check out his rolling xwOBA from the last three seasons:
Even a mini-slump remained above league average. And he may be on the precipice of another spike of production. Viewing his batted ball data, he's reduced his ground ball rate this year by almost seven percentage points while raising his fly ball rate by almost six. Once again, this insulates his early results this year culminating in the power growth displayed to this point.
When viewing events by direction, Guerrero Jr.'s also using the field evenly. He's pulling the ball in 35.9 percent of his batted ball events, using the middle of the field 36.8 percent of the time and going to the opposite field 27.4 percent of his data, a career high. It's easily discernible in his spray chart and attached to his monstrous Statcast indicators:
Against his peers, here's Vladito's percentile ranks in some key categories:
xwOBA - 98th percentile
xBA - 93rd percentile
xSLG - 94th percentile
Barrels - 93rd percentile
Exit Velocity - 99th percentile
Hard hit percentage - 88th percentile
Walk rate - 94th percentile
This transitions nicely to his improved discipline metrics. By swinging less, he's producing more. Guerrero Jr.'s reduced his swing percentage by 5.5 percentage points, though his whiff rate's up by four percent this season. His biggest improvement lies in lowering his chase percentage by over six points and cutting his chase contact by almost 20 percent (19.4 to be exact). Unlike his father, Junior offers less often at pitches outside the strike zone. The result?
He leads the majors in swing and take runs rankings with a plus 23:
Even though he's less likely to chase pitches outside the strike zone, his production on them still holds with plus-12 runs on pitches in the chase and waste zones.
Putting this all together, it means the breakout, or coronation of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 's in full effect. Do not focus on exit velocity or launch angle, see his comfort level at the plate along with the easy power generated by his swing. In better shape and humbled by his peers in 2020, the new and improved Vladito may be here to stay. In fact, when viewing his rest-of-the-season projections, he may be a first round pick in 2022:
If his xBA of .307 remains in line with THE BAT X's the rest of the year with the league hitting .236, his value in terms of average alone puts him in the first round entering his Age-23 season. Playing in Buffalo while using the whole field and racking up barrels makes Guerrero Jr. someone to believe in for fantasy. His buy low window in drafts just evaporated. It's fun when hard work and talent come to fruition.
Statistical Credits:
Fangraphs.com
BaseballSavant.com
Steamerprojections.com
THE BAT and THE BAT X courtesy of Derek Carty
ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski