DFS NFL QB Coach: Week 15

Published: Dec 17, 2016

Week 15 is a crucial week in fantasy as many of you are now done with your traditional fantasy squad. Let's turn our sites to the DFS game and see if we can help to turn that frown upside down this week.

RANK	Player Name	Team	Opponent	G	Snaps	Comp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	PA%	YPC	RAT	RuAtt	RuYd	RuTD	Fum
1	Aaron Rodgers	GB	CHI@	13	824	327	502	3529	32	7	60.9%	10.8	101.1	52	295	3	2
2	Matt Ryan	ATL	SF	13	788	302	442	4050	30	7	56.1%	13.4	113.2	30	107	0	0
3	Tom Brady	NE	DEN@	9	551	233	340	2876	22	2	61.7%	12.3	113.6	26	59	0	0
4	Kirk Cousins	WAS	CAR	13	826	334	495	4045	23	9	59.9%	12.1	100.3	27	59	2	1
5	Philip Rivers	SD	OAK	13	806	287	464	3589	27	17	57.6%	12.5	90	12	34	0	0
6	Russell Wilson	SEA	LA	13	752	286	443	3382	13	10	58.9%	11.8	88.1	54	207	1	0
7	Derek Carr	OAK	SD@	13	845	317	500	3478	24	5	59.2%	11	95.7	33	57	0	1
8	Andrew Luck	IND	MIN@	12	683	258	403	3105	23	8	59%	12	98.3	54	272	1	0
9	Drew Brees	NO	ARI@	13	857	357	500	3913	30	11	58.3%	11	105	16	19	2	0
10	Tyrod Taylor	BUF	CLE	13	766	211	348	2292	11	5	45.4%	10.9	84.6	73	469	6	2
11	Carson Palmer	ARI	NO	13	752	286	443	3382	13	10	58.9%	11.8	88.1	54	207	1	0
12	Cam Newton	CAR	WAS@	12	743	213	398	2774	15	9	53.6%	13	78.9	76	317	5	1
13	Dak Prescott	DAL	TB	13	799	260	395	3139	20	4	49.4%	12.1	102.7	48	218	5	1
14	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	CIN@	12	713	266	409	3034	25	8	57.4%	11.4	99.4	8	22	1	0
15	Jameis Winston	TB	DAL@	13	869	269	436	3180	23	12	50.2%	11.8	90	41	111	1	2
16	Joe Flacco	BAL	PHI	13	837	358	549	3582	17	12	65.6%	10	84.8	20	59	2	0
17	Andy Dalton	CIN	PIT	13	825	302	467	3555	16	6	56.6%	11.8	93.8	41	179	3	2
18	Colin Kaepernick	SF	ATL@	9	440	116	213	1444	10	3	48.4%	12.4	85.5	52	393	1	0
19	Eli Manning	NYG	DET	13	770	302	480	3290	23	13	62.3%	10.9	87.8	21	-9	0	0
20	Marcus Mariota	TEN	KC@	13	790	249	398	3086	25	8	50.4%	12.4	99.1	57	348	2	2
21	Matthew Stafford	DET	NYG@	12	770	312	468	3447	22	7	60.8%	11	97.8	34	193	1	0
22	Alex Smith	KC	TEN	12	669	267	397	2831	12	5	59.3%	10.6	92.7	34	56	2	0
23	Sam Bradford	MIN	IND	12	722	304	427	2954	14	3	59.1%	9.7	98.2	17	24	0	1
24	Blake Bortles	JAC	HOU@	13	847	305	520	3187	21	15	61.4%	10.4	77.9	50	336	2	0
25	Trevor Siemian	DEN	NE	11	635	230	376	2730	16	7	59.2%	11.9	89.7	25	58	0	0
26	Carson Wentz	PHI	BAL@	13	834	317	498	3215	13	12	59.7%	10.1	80.7	37	102	1	0
27	Matt Barkley	CHI	GB	4	171	65	119	801	4	4	69.6%	12.3	72.8	7	2	0	0
28	Brock Osweiler	HOU	JAC	13	827	260	435	2509	14	13	52.6%	9.7	74.2	27	132	1	1
29	Matt Moore	MIA	NYJ@	0	0	3	5	47	0	0	0	15.7	91.3	0	0	0	0
30	Bryce Petty	NYJ	MIA	4	91	32	59	317	2	3	64.8%	9.9	59.8	0	0	0	0
31	Robert Griffin III	CLE	BUF@	2	51	24	54	294	0	2	105.9%	12.3	46.4	12	68	1	0
32	Jared Goff	LA	SEA@	4	166	75	136	744	4	5	81.9%	9.9	65.3	6	12	1	0

* PA% - Percentage of plays run that were passes.

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RANK	Player Name	Team	Opponent	Pts Allowed	Opp Pass Rk	Opp Rk	DVOA	Opp Pass Yds/G	Pace	O/U	$Line	$FD	$DK	$FA
1	Aaron Rodgers	GB	CHI@	16.7	14	14	-0.008	237.8	28.07	42.5	230	$8500	$7100	$7600
2	Matt Ryan	ATL	SF	19.1	29	31	0.1310	264.9	27.72	51.5	-800	$8500	$7300	$7300
3	Tom Brady	NE	DEN@	13.1	1	1	-0.175	198.8	28.06	0		$8100	$6700	$7000
4	Kirk Cousins	WAS	CAR	18.6	16	12	-0.034	295.1	27.92	51	-225	$7500	$6800	$6800
5	Philip Rivers	SD	OAK	18.7	21	21	0.0590	286.3	27.9	50	125	$7800	$6200	$6650
6	Russell Wilson	SEA	LA	17.7	20	18	-0.018	249.3	28.18	38.5	-948	$7600	$6600	$6800
7	Derek Carr	OAK	SD@	17.8	9	9	-0.058	283.2	28.12	50	125	$7900	$6300	$6450
8	Andrew Luck	IND	MIN@	13.5	2	8	-0.11	219.1	27.27	44.5	-204	$8100	$6400	$6950
9	Drew Brees	NO	ARI@	15.9	4	4	-0.142	218.6	26.05	50	-135	$8200	$6600	$7250
10	Tyrod Taylor	BUF	CLE	19.9	31	32	0.1790	271.7	26.98	42.5	-510	$7600	$5700	$6500
11	Carson Palmer	ARI	NO	17.9	28	24	0.0900	290.7	27.51	50	-135	$7600	$6000	$6750
12	Cam Newton	CAR	WAS@	18.3	22	26	0.0740	279.3	26.61	51	-225	$7700	$6400	$6750
13	Dak Prescott	DAL	TB	17.5	6	7	-0.045	270.6	28.84	46	-320	$7900	$6200	$6400
14	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	CIN@	18.7	17	20	0.0240	258.1	27.35	44	150	$8000	$6600	$6800
15	Jameis Winston	TB	DAL@	16	24	23	0.0410	290.2	26.24	46	-320	$7800	$6100	$6400
16	Joe Flacco	BAL	PHI	17.1	3	5	-0.12	263.4	26.2	0		$7400	$5700	$5850
17	Andy Dalton	CIN	PIT	15.7	13	10	-0.047	273.7	27.15	44	150	$7600	$5500	$6300
18	Colin Kaepernick	SF	ATL@	20.4	23	27	0.1060	298.2	23.95	51.5	-800	$7500	$5800	$6100
19	Eli Manning	NYG	DET	17.1	30	30	0.1590	273.6	24.77	41.5	-225	$7700	$5600	$6250
20	Marcus Mariota	TEN	KC@	18.2	8	11	-0.043	272.1	29.06	43	-240	$7700	$6500	$6200
21	Matthew Stafford	DET	NYG@	13	5	3	-0.135	278	28.79	41.5	-225	$7800	$6300	$6600
22	Alex Smith	KC	TEN	19.2	25	28	0.0760	297.8	27.9	43	-240	$6800	$5400	$6000
23	Sam Bradford	MIN	IND	17.1	26	25	0.1300	284.3	28.6	44.5	-204	$6700	$5000	$5300
24	Blake Bortles	JAC	HOU@	14.1	12	19	-0.027	230.5	25.08	39	-249	$6500	$5000	$5600
25	Trevor Siemian	DEN	NE	18.2	27	17	0.0290	268.5	26.72	0		$6600	$5200	$5700
26	Carson Wentz	PHI	BAL@	16.7	7	2	-0.155	255.7	30.24	0		$6600	$5000	$5800
27	Matt Barkley	CHI	GB	17.9	18	15	-0.024	272.4	27.25	42.5	230	$6200	$5000	$5000
28	Brock Osweiler	HOU	JAC	15	15	13	-0.022	220.1	26.82	39	-249	$6500	$5100	$5500
29	Matt Moore	MIA	NYJ@	17.1	32	29	0.1150	274.1	28.81	38	115	$6000	$5000	$5000
30	Bryce Petty	NYJ	MIA	18.3	11	16	-0.012	253.2	28.75	38	115	$6000	$5000	$5000
31	Robert Griffin III	CLE	BUF@	15.7	19	22	0.0510	248.8	26.25	42.5	-510	$6100	$5000	$5000
32	Jared Goff	LA	SEA@	15.6	10	6	-0.114	250.8	28.85	38.5	-948	$6100	$5000	$5000

* Pts allowed on Fanduel
** Opp Pass Rank is pass defense
*** Opp Rank is Oppositions overall defensive rank
**** DVOA – Football Outsiders Defense adjusted Value Over Average
*****Pace - Seconds per play, the lower the number, the more plays run.

Spread = Point spreads
Vegas O/U = Over/Under

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RANK	Player Name	Team	Opponent	P>20	P>40	RZ Pass Att	RZ Pass <15	RZ Pass <10	RZ Pass <5	RZ Rush Att	RZ Rush <15	RZ Rush <10	RZ Rush <5	$FD	$DK	$FA
1	Aaron Rodgers	GB	CHI@	41	7	96	71	44	26	9	7	4	2	$8500	$7100	$7600
2	Matt Ryan	ATL	SF	54	15	73	57	37	25	3	1	1	1	$8500	$7300	$7300
3	Tom Brady	NE	DEN@	30	5	43	28	20	9	4	4	4	3	$8100	$6700	$7000
4	Kirk Cousins	WAS	CAR	50	9	63	48	34	18	5	4	3	3	$7500	$6800	$6800
5	Philip Rivers	SD	OAK	40	13	80	54	32	18	1	1	1	1	$7800	$6200	$6650
6	Russell Wilson	SEA	LA	37	7	52	34	20	10	3	3	3	3	$7600	$6600	$6800
7	Derek Carr	OAK	SD@	43	7	76	64	46	29	1	1	0	0	$7900	$6300	$6450
8	Andrew Luck	IND	MIN@	48	7	54	41	32	18	5	5	1	0	$8100	$6400	$6950
9	Drew Brees	NO	ARI@	52	6	80	66	50	24	4	3	2	2	$8200	$6600	$7250
10	Tyrod Taylor	BUF	CLE	24	4	44	30	20	10	10	9	8	5	$7600	$5700	$6500
11	Carson Palmer	ARI	NO	35	4	64	51	33	24	0	0	0	0	$7600	$6000	$6750
12	Cam Newton	CAR	WAS@	31	9	37	21	11	5	15	12	10	9	$7700	$6400	$6750
13	Dak Prescott	DAL	TB	30	7	55	42	29	17	9	9	9	3	$7900	$6200	$6400
14	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	CIN@	45	7	51	41	29	20	2	1	1	1	$8000	$6600	$6800
15	Jameis Winston	TB	DAL@	34	3	61	36	25	17	3	3	3	1	$7800	$6100	$6400
16	Joe Flacco	BAL	PHI	33	7	52	38	21	13	4	4	3	2	$7400	$5700	$5850
17	Andy Dalton	CIN	PIT	47	11	56	41	25	11	3	3	3	3	$7600	$5500	$6300
18	Colin Kaepernick	SF	ATL@	16	4	21	16	9	2	5	3	2	1	$7500	$5800	$6100
19	Eli Manning	NYG	DET	34	8	48	40	23	13	1	1	0	0	$7700	$5600	$6250
20	Marcus Mariota	TEN	KC@	47	6	56	36	29	14	6	4	2	0	$7700	$6500	$6200
21	Matthew Stafford	DET	NYG@	38	8	61	47	31	17	4	3	2	1	$7800	$6300	$6600
22	Alex Smith	KC	TEN	27	5	56	36	23	14	4	2	1	1	$6800	$5400	$6000
23	Sam Bradford	MIN	IND	32	4	48	31	16	7	0	0	0	0	$6700	$5000	$5300
24	Blake Bortles	JAC	HOU@	35	3	61	47	26	13	4	4	3	2	$6500	$5000	$5600
25	Trevor Siemian	DEN	NE	26	7	46	38	28	16	5	4	2	1	$6600	$5200	$5700
26	Carson Wentz	PHI	BAL@	33	5	68	39	15	9	4	4	3	2	$6600	$5000	$5800
27	Matt Barkley	CHI	GB	8	0	17	15	11	2	0	0	0	0	$6200	$5000	$5000
28	Brock Osweiler	HOU	JAC	24	3	49	34	17	6	2	2	1	1	$6500	$5100	$5500
29	Matt Moore	MIA	NYJ@	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	$6000	$5000	$5000
30	Bryce Petty	NYJ	MIA	2	2	3	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	$6000	$5000	$5000
31	Robert Griffin III	CLE	BUF@	2	2	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	$6100	$5000	$5000
32	Jared Goff	LA	SEA@	6	1	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	$6100	$5000	$5000

RZ Patt Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 20 yard line)
RZ P<15 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 15 yard line)
RZ P<10 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 10 yard line)
RZ P<5 Red Zone Passing Attempts (inside the 5 yard line)
RZ Ru Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 20 yard line)
RZ Ru<15 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 15 yard line)
RZ Ru<10 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 10 yard line)
RZ Ru<5 Red Zone Rushing Attempts (inside the 5 yard line)
RZ Tar Red Zone Targets (inside the 20 yard line)
RZ Tar<15 Red Zone Targets (inside the 15 yard line)
RZ Tar<10 Red Zone Targets (inside the 10 yard line)
RZ Tar<5 Red Zone Targets (inside the 5 yard line)
RZ Rec Red Zone Receptions (inside the 20 yard line)
RZ Rec<15 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 15 yard line)
RZ Rec<10 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 10 yard line)
RZ Rec<5 Red Zone Receptions (inside the 5 yard line)

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*NOTE: Not all quarterbacks have a writeup below. That doesn't mean that only the below options fit in each category. Check the graph below to see where the others rank.

ELITE OPTIONS

Aaron Rodgers threw for three scores and 246 yards last week on 21 aimed throws in which his QB Rating was 155.1. He has issues with his calf and hamstring, but those physical situations didn’t limit him in Week 14. The o-line continues to give him oodles of time to do his thing.

Matt Ryan was pretty surgical last week, even without Julio Jones, as he eschewed the deep ball to pick apart the Rams on short stuff. He had a 126.6 QB Rating against the blitz and 126.6 when not blitzed. Ryan leads the league with a 9.2 yards per attempt mark.

Kirk Cousins threw for 220 yards and two scores in 17 pass attempts last week when not under pressure. He is third in the league with an 8.2 yards per attempt mark and the mark is at 10.4, third best, when he’s throwing off of play action. He’s thrown for 260 yards in 9-straight and the Panthers allow the third most yards in the air, 272.4 per game, and have permitted 24 passing scores.

SOLID PLAYS

Russell Wilson was awful last week, but again, the o-line simply couldn’t set a pocket (blame squarely on you Bradley Sowell and George Fant). He’s much better in play action as well as it gives his o-line a slight advantage as Wilson has a 78.8 QB rating with no play action and a league best 121.4 mark when using play action.

Derek Carr hit just two of 13 passes last week over 10-yards in the air. A bad game? A jacked finger? A touch defense? All three? The wideouts didn’t help with Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree catching just 11-of-25 targets. In an earlier matchup Carr tosses 317 yards and two scores against the Chargers.

Andrew Luck took just one sack last week but he also hit only 24 of 45 passes as the right side of the offensive line continues to struggle. Luck still tossed two picks and has thrown for eight scores the last three. He’s failed to hit 285 yards in 4-straight but he’s been between .262 and 281 each time out. The Vikings haven’t allowed 19 first downs in three games and they have held 4-straight opponents to less than 235 passing yards (sack yardage included as a negative).

Drew Brees had no scores for a second straight outing, though two passes were dropped in Week 14 that would have been touchdowns. However, he made some poor passes for the second straight outing and the o-line could do nothing to help last week and suddenly Brees seems like a shaky option to overcome poor line play. Brees still leads the league with an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 81.3 percent and his QB Rating is 107.2 when the picket is clean this season. Oh, he’s also Drew Brees, so there’s that.

Tyrod Taylor ranks 27^th in the NFL in completion percentage with a clean pocket (89.4). This is amazing... Taylor has thrown for four scores on 252 passes when not under pressure. That’s abysmal. He takes 3.37 seconds to throw, the second most time in football, and often times just ends up using his legs. Conversely, when he throws quickly he doesn’t make a mistake as he’s tossed zero picks on the 157 passes he’s released in under 2.5 seconds.

Carson Palmer looked poor yet again in Week 14. Weather or not, he’s looking like total mess when under pressure. Palmer has turned the ball over 10 times his last six games. He has thrown for at least two scores in 4-straight though and it’s not like the Saints are a stout defense (just seven picks, 4^th most yards allowed a game this season at 268.3).

Cam Newton is playing some terrible football. No yards, no scores, poor decisions, it’s pervasive levels of crap from the former star. Newton has been under 250 in 4-straight and under 195 in ¾. He’s failed to complete 15 passes in 4-straight. He’s been under 49 percent on his completion percentage in 4-straight. It’s been ugly for a month.

Dak Prescott is tied for 25^th in deep passes, 37 of 20-yards in the air. He has thrown just three picks this season, but he’s also thrown just three scores the last three games while being picked off two times. He’s also failed to reach 200 passing yards in any of those games and has been under 170-yards in 2-straight. His average effort the last three is 26 passes and just 15 completions per outing.

Ben Roethlisberger hit only 3-of-12 passes last week over 10-yards. He hit just 56.5 percent of his passes last week when not blitzed as he missed receivers and made a few bad decisions. He simply didn’t, and hasn’t, looked like himself since coming back from his knee injury. He has thrown just 10 scores against seven picks his last seven games.

Jameis Winston hit seven receivers last week. Unfortunately for the second straight game he wasn’t able to get Mike Evans going even though the o-line doing a very nice job. Winston leads the league with 68 percent of his passes coming in the air. Same time, only one passing score in two games and one or zero in ¾ games.

RISKY PLAYS

Joe Flacco is 29^th in the league with a 78.4 QB Rating out of play action. Ugh. He’s tossed the ball for 381 and 324 yards the last two weeks, the only back-to-back games this season for Flacco with two scores. The Eagles defense is listing and have allowed the 5^th most yards through the air the last three weeks.

Andy Dalton threw one score, wasn’t picked, and tossed 366 yards in Week 2 at the Steelers. He’s only tossed five scores in three games, but he also has no picks in that time. The Steelers have held signal callers to less than 220 passing yards (includes lost sack yardage) in each of the last four games.

Colin Kaepernick has one touchdown in two games. Only once in five outings has he thrown for 215 yards. Three times in four outings he’s been held to less than 33 rushing yards (no rushing scores). The Falcons created five turnovers last week against the Rams.

Eli Manning played terrible last week and had six plays that could have resulted in a turnover (he threw a pick, and lost two fumbles). Manning has three picks in two games, but he has thrown at least two scores in 5/6 games. He’s also failed to throw for 200-yards in 3-straight though the Lions permit a league worst 72.9 completion percentage.

Marcus Mariota – just erase last week from your memory banks (six completions, 88 yards). Mariota still hasn’t been picked in four outings, and in 8/9 he’s tossed at least two scores. The Chiefs allow a mere 60.3 completion rate and permitted just 109 yards (minus sacks), after a run of 3-straight games of at least 290 allowed.

Matthew Stafford has a jammed-up pinkie. He will be playing through it though he will have to wear something on the finger which could hamper his performance. Stafford has produced just 48.2 percent of his yards on passes in the air, lowest in football amongst starters as the receivers are really helping him out, so he will need his accuracy big-time.

Alex Smith has allowed five passing scores in six games. That’s it. He’s thrown for 260 in 2-straight, but he’s also been under 225 passing yards five times in eight outings. The Titans have created eight turnovers their last four games.

Sam Bradford has the second-best mark in football, when under pressure, according to adjusted completion percentage (74.5 percent, a year after he led the league at 74.4 ) - Adjusted Completion ((Completions + Drops) / (Attempts - Throw Aways - Spikes - Batted Passes - Hit As Thrown)). The Colts have the worst pass rush in football according to PFF. He’s also tied for 25^th with a mere 37 pass attempts of 20-yards. The o-line has been an issue for a while now, and they injury to Brandon Fusco complicates things further.

Blake Bortles is ranked 26^th in adjusted completion percentage as he’s struggled for accuracy most of the season. Even last week, when the Vikes rushed an extra man on just 11 of 43 dropbacks, he did relatively little (257 yards, one score). His last five games: seven scores, five picks, two fumbles, 5.5 Y/A and a 74.2 QB Rating.

QUARTERBACKS TO AVOID

Trevor Siemian the last two has averaged 351 passing yards and two scores. The Pats are a mid-level defense according to traditional metrics, but they rank 4^th in defense according to PFF (though it’s fair to note the majority of that ranking is from their rush D). The Pats are a top-5 unit in pass coverage, and with no rushing game to speak of at the moment going with Siemian is simply a risky play.

Carson Wentz hit on 78.1 percent of his 32 attempts last week when not pressured. When under pressure he hit just 7-of-14 while taking four sacks. He’s struggling massively when under pressure as his 35.6 QB Rating in 122 attempts while under pressure is last in football.

Matt Barkley has been rather composed the last three weeks, even if the results aren’t always there (a huge part of that blame goes to his receivers who continue to drop passes at seemingly every opportunity). Barkley has one passing score in two weeks and is facing a Packers defense that crushed the Seahawks last week.

Jared Goff threw for 166 yards on 34 passes last week when he wasn’t blizted. That’s not good. Some blame goes to the receivers who dropped five balls. Goff still has four picks and just one score in two games. Now he goes to Seattle. #GoodLuckWithThat

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