HOW GOOD IS ODOR?
Rougned Odor hit his 17th homer Monday night given him the 4th highest total for a second baseman, who started a season at 22 years of age or less, in baseball history. That’s pretty impressive. He’s on pace for 29 homers, 83 RBI, 103 runs and 12 steals this season. Those numbers, if reached, would make him as good as Brian Dozier. It would also be a hell of a third season for Odor. However, I do have some concerns, you should too, if you think this is some breakout effort for Odor.
Odor has hit .263 in three seasons. This year the mark is .271.
His career BABIP is .291. This year the mark is .298.
His career line drive rate is 15.5 percent. This year the mark is 17.2 percent.
His career GB/FB rate is 1.14. This year the mark is 0.91.
His career HR/FB ratio is 11.5 percent. This season the mark is 14.7 percent.
His career BB/K ratio is 0.21. This year the mark is 0.11.
His career swinging strike rate is 8.9 percent. This year the mark is 11.9 percent.
His career marks in pull, center and opposite field dispersal are 44/32/24 percent. This year the marks are 45/33/22.
So I ask you… where is the growth? Despite his excellent pace this season, Odor has shown no growth at all this season. None. Some up, some down, but overall no real growth.
We’re talking about a guy with a .271 batting average that would be a career best. Amongst the 163 qualifiers for the batting title at present that mark is 84th in baseball.
We’re talking about a guy with a .291 OBP which is 150th amongst 163 qualifiers.
We’re talking about a guy with a .327 wOBA which is 103rd amongst 163 qualifiers.
We’re talking about a guy with a 0.11 BB/K ratio – the worst in baseball for a qualifier.
We’re talking about a guy with a 17.2 percent line drive rate. That’s 145th amongst the 163 qualifiers.
So I ask you again, where is the growth?
Where is the excitement?
It’s hard to find it to be honest.
I noted at the top that Odor’s current pace is Dozier-like. For a few years now Dozier has been a counting category beast at second base. He’s not a refined hitter, in fact his batting average is often poor, but he plays daily and racks up the counting category stats. As a result, Dozier is always a top-10 option at second base, usually a top-5 play if we’re being honest. If Odor falls into that mix right alongside Dozier, he will be a tremendous fantasy performer. However, ask yourself the following; how often have you called out the name of Dozier and done a cartwheel? I’m willing roster Dozier and love it, others don’t. Maybe you don’t. Right now Odor is merely a younger, less proven Dozier. Keep that in mind as the Odor love continues to flow in a manner that doesn’t really seem to reflect reality if you ask this scribe.
ALL THOSE STRIKEOUTS
Bob Gibson and Mike Leake… the only pitchers in Cardinals history with 10 strikeouts and no walks in back-to-back games. I know, right? Not for Hall of Famer Gibson, but for Leake given his career 6.12 per nine strikeout rate. As a result of all the strikeouts he’s upped his season long punchout mark to 6.69. That would be the second best mark of Mike’s career folks. No idea where these strikeouts are coming from, especially since his 7.0 percent swinging strike rate stinks, and is a tenth below his career mark. He’s not a strikeout arm, despite those two recent outings.
However, that’s not to diminish a solid hurler. Leake ain’t great at anything, and that’s why he is so boring. Still, he’s not a bad option to round out a pitching staff in mixed leagues.
These numbers are from the last three seasons (minimum 450 innings pitched).
Leake has won at least 11 games each season with a total of 36 wins. That 36 victory total is tied for 26th best in baseball.
Leake has posted an ERA of 3.70 or lower each season. His 3.59 ERA the last three seasons is 34th best in baseball.
Leake has walked 2.30 of fewer batters each season. His mark of 2.21 the last three years is the 23rd best in baseball.
Leake has posted a WHIP of 1.25 or lower each of the last three seasons. His 1.22 WHIP the last three years is 31st in baseball.
Leake has thrown at least 192 innings all three seasons. Leake has thrown 598.2 innings the 18th most in baseball.
Again, not great, but very solid.
As of this writing Leake has a 4.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and seven wins. Pretty much the same guy as always folks. I would key in on his 1.31 BB/9 rate leading to a stupendous 5.12 K/BB ratio. If he holds on to that mark his performance will improve.
A.J. GRIFFIN IMPLODING
Get out, get out now.
Hopefully you’ve listened to early warnings about A.J. Griffin of the Rangers. Pitching over his head, things have started to get ugly with Griffin the last two times he’s taken the hill as he’s allowed 13 hits, four walks and 11 runs over 10 innings. Moreover, Griffin has now made 6-straight starts without lasting more than 5.0 innings. So spotty performance, a lack of innings, and a declining strikeout rate (just eight strikeouts his last three starts). Can’t think you can get anything for him on the trade market, so it’s likely just a good deal to move on to the waiver-wire.
DFS DIAMONDS
*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.
CATCHER: Brian McCann has a .791 OPS and 11 homers in 194 at-bats against righties. He’s also batting .308 with a .891 OPS in 10 July games. He faces Vance Worley who is making just his third start of the season for the Orioles.
FIRST BASE: Eric Hosmer has five hits his last three games. He’s walked three times in four games. He’s scored four times in five games. He has four RBI in five games. He faces Danny Salazar with a .333 average and two homers over 24 at-bats.
SECOND BASE: Jonathan Schoop has three homers his last seven games. In the month of July he’s hitting .321 with a .923 OPS and those three homers. In 263 at-bats against righties he has a .316/.348/.544 slash line with 13 homers and 45 RBI. He takes on Nathan Eovaldi.
THIRD BASE: Conor Gillaspie has hit .417 against Rick Porcello over 24 at-bats. His slash line on the road this season is also very impressive (.340/.380/.638).
SHORTSTOP: Asdrubal Cabrera has a hit in 5-straight games. He’s hit three homers his last 10 games. He’s hit two homers with a .455 average against Jake Arrieta who has allowed 10 runs and 17 hits his last two outings.
OUTFIELD: Jayson Werth has hit .365 with a 1.067 OPS against lefties this season with five homers and seven doubles in 85 at-bats. Against Scott Kazmir he’s gone 5-for-5 with a homer.
OUTFIELD: Ian Desmond faces Tim Lincecum with an absurd 10 hits in 15 at-bats. The results include two homers and a 1.887 OPS. Lincecum has a 6.85 ERA, 2.07 WHIP and .369 BAA.
OUTFIELD: Danny Valencia has hit .358/.427/.642 against lefties, mashing the crap out of them. He faces Dallas Keuchel with seven hits in 13 at-bats including two homers.
Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).