WHAT IS WRONG WITH SALE?

I seriously received a question about what was wrong with Chris Sale Tuesday night. It was nuanced, the fella was asking about a lack of strikeouts, but of course I responded with something snooty like – you can’t be serious. Here’s what we know.

Sale is 5-0 through five starts.

Sale has a 1.66 ERA and 0.68 WHIP.

Sale has walked 1.18 batters per nine innings, a batter below his career rate.

He has a 6.40 K/BB ratio, a stupendous number.

The only negative… the lack of punchouts.

There are few better in the strikeout category than Sale who has a 10.19 career K/9 rate. Truthfully, no one has been better the last two seasons than Sale who led the league at 11.34 per nine (Clayton Kershaw was second at 11.28). This year that mark has plummeted down to 7.58 per nine. Is there, or should there be, concern?

Sale’s velocity is down 3/10 of a mph from normal on his fastball. Nothing to see there.

Sale’s thrown his fastball 3 percent more this season than last, but that’s really nothing to be concerned with.

Sale has thrown his slider and change up, in terms of frequency, about 1 percent off his career levels in both areas. Nothing to see there.

Same velocity, same pitch distribution.

Let’s go by pitch.

FASTBALL: Batters have a 1.000 OPS on the pitch this season versus .795 for his career. He has a 7.5 percent swinging strike rate, half a point above his career average.

SLIDER: Batters have a .444 on the pitch this season versus .432 for his career. No one is hitting the pitch. However, he’s not getting the swing and miss with the pitch as his swinging strike rate is 10.7 percent, well off his 15.5 percent career rate. The mark has been at least 14.1 percent each season of his career.  

CHANGEUP: Batters have a .446 OPS against the pitch versus .589 for his career. His swinging strike rate on the pitch has plummeted from 16.9 percent for his career, a mark he has recorded each of the last three seasons, down to 6.3 percent. Oddly, his xMOV, xMOV and MOV on the pitch, the measures of movement, are all nearly identical to his career rates. Some normalization has to occur here.

Perhaps he’s changed his overall approach a bit? The club certainly talked about doing just that this offseason. Here’s what manager Robin Ventura said in the preseason. “It doesn’t matter how you become more efficient, it’s doesn’t matter how you do it as long as you do it. For him for longevity you want to… get an out on a first pitch and not rely so much on a strikeout deep in a count… He’s more aware of it, how to attack hitters and last longer in a game. That’s the maturation process for him to be able to understand that.”

While he’s only barely cut his pitches per batter mark, it’s down one tenth, he has cut his pitches per inning. After six straight years with a mark of 15.2 pitches an inning or more, he’s cut that down to 13.8 pitches per inning through five starts.

So he’s not likely to strike out more than 11 batters per nine this season like he has the last two seasons. I still would be shocked to see less than a strikeout per inning when the season was over. Shocked.

TIME TO BAIL ON RENDON?

Anthony Rendon hit .287 with 21 homers, 17 steals and 111 runs scored in his first full season of 2014. He was a star on the rise, a player everyone had to have.

Entering 2015 he had a knee issue that was no big deal. At least that’s the bill of goods we were sold (it was obviously a lie). Rendon has tons of setbacks and appeared in a mere 80 games batting .264 with five homers and one steal.

Heading into this season there was cautious optimism that Rendon was going to be fine and return to hitting, and maybe even running. I cautioned folks to be reasonable with their expectations in March, but I know few listened. Now I’m getting all these panicked questions from owners who are ready to drop Rendon.

Rendon has a career contact rate of 87.0 percent on all the swings he takes. This season the mark is 87.2 percent.

Rendon rarely swings at pitches outside the strike zone. This season the mark is 18.5 percent which is better than his 21.1 percent career mark.

He also owns a 0.64 BB/K ratio right now, above his career 0.52 mark.

His approach isn’t any different this season.

The results are different though. Still, not a few other things.

First, he has a 25.4 percent line drive rate, three percent above his 22.2 career mark.

Second, he has a 36.8 percent hard hit rate, 0.5 percent above his career rate.

He has a 35/31/34 spray chart (left/center/right). His career marks are 38/34/28. He could use right field a bit more, but nothing crazy here in the early going.

Rendon should be fine. Note that per 162 games, for his career, that his fantasy line is still pretty darn solid at .273-15-67-96-9.

Here’s what I think.

In 12/15 team leagues you’re crazy if you drop Rendon.

I would say in most 10-team leagues it is wrong to drop Rendon. Not all, some folks make terrible decisions and drop guys they shouldn’t because they lack patience, but in most cases he needs to be held.

He will be fine. Give it some time.

THE TALE OF GIANCARLO

Giancarlo Stanton has blasted six big flies through 18 games, a fantastic number, that is augmented by his total of 16 runs batted in. That’s what everyone expected. Now the bad. The guy is batting .246 with a .338 OBP. Not that it’s surprising given that his career marks are .269 and .361. A bit of a slow start is all. However, those damn strike outs continue to pile up. Stanton, who was at 29.9 percent K-rate last season (only three batters exceeded that mark last season), has upped the ante to 32.5 percent this season. All those strikeouts take a toll, especially on a fellas batting average. When will he be hurt? that’s the next and most obvious question you should be asking yourself as well. For the history of Stanton check out Stanton’s 2016 Fantasy Value.

NEWS AND NOTES

Jose Berrios will make his first start today. Check out his Player Profile so you know what to expect from the elite prospect.

Robinson Cano is on pace for 55 homers and 170 RBI. Yeah, he’s washed up.

Andrew McCutchen is on pace for 35-plus homers and 115 runs scored. Yeah, he stinks.

Noah Syndergaard has an unearthly slider. It brings with it significant concern.

Mike Trout is batting .297 with a .404 OBP and .918 OPS. He’s only stolen one base though and 11 RBI and 11 runs scored are below expectations for the superstar. As I’ve noted before, Trout’s worst monthly OPS throughout the year is in April.

DFS DIAMONDS

*The following list of players are guys that Ray recommends as daily plays.

FIRST BASE: Mark Reynolds is batting .263 with a .760 OPS against lefties this season. However, Jon Niese has never posed a problem for him given eight hits, including two homers, in 15 at-bats (.533). Reynolds is also batting .346/.433/.500 at home this season.

SECOND BASE: Dustin Pedroia has two hits in 5-of-6 games and he has scored nine runs his last 10 games. He’s also hit .375 with a 1.108 OPS over 22 plate appearances against sucky Bud Norris.

THIRD BASE: Evan Longoria has murdered Chris Tillman with a .333/.393/.824 line over 56 plate appearances. That effort includes seven homers and four doubles.

SHORTSTOP: Elvis Andrus rips up CC Sabathia with a .455 average and .909 OPS over 22 plate appearances. Andrus is batting .343 with a .833 OPS this season.

OUTFIELD: Darin Ruf tears up left-handed pitching. For his career he has 16 homers in 249 at-bats and his slash line sparkles (.301/.388/.554). He faces Gio Gonzalez who he has hit .346 with three homers, nine RBI and a 1.293 OPS against over 35 plate appearances.

OUTFIELD: Ichiro Suzuki is batting .400 in the early going. He’s facing the struggling Scott Kazmir who he’s hit .323 against over 31 at-bats. Kazmir is a mess right now.

OUTFIELD: Adam Easton has four hits, four RBI and three runs scored his last two games. He’s also batting .400 with a .966 OPS on the road. He faces Marc Estrada batting .296 against righties this season.