I get a version of something like this daily, over and over and over again.

'Ray I drafted Taijuan Walker. He stinks. Can I drop him to add Trevor Bauer?'

Then, probably five minutes later, the same person sends a follow up note to me.

'Ray, should I add Carlos Martinez over Bauer?'


I can tell you exactly what will happen after that. 

The person will add Bauer. Bauer will then go out, walk six guys and allow five runs over 3.2 innings in his next start. Then the question will be - 

'Ray, Bauer was bad in his last outing and Jimmy Nelson continues to look good, should I drop Bauer for Nelson?'

I'm serious about this. You should see how many questions revolve around young arms at this point of the season, particularly the young ones. Over, and over and over again. 

Let's do something instructive. I'm going to list the top-25 prospects in baseball according to Baseball America from 2008-2011. I respect this company tremendously. The data below is not meant to belittle them at all. It's merely to point out that even the best of the best have a hard time being correct when it comes to predicting rookie success. Don't believe me? Take a look at these lists. How many names have failed to live up to expectations? Way more than you likely think.

Baseball America Top-20   
2008200920102011
Jay Bruce, OFMatt Wieters, CJason Heyward, OF1. Bryce Harper, of, Nationals
Evan Longoria, 3BDavid Price, LHPStephen Strasburg, RHP2. Mike Trout, of, Angels
Joba Chamberlain, RHPColby Rasmus, OFMike Stanton, OF3. Jesus Montero, c, Yankees
Clay Buchholz, RHPTommy Hanson, RHPJesus Montero, C4. Domonic Brown, of, Phillies
Colby Rasmus, OFJayson Heyward, OFBrian Matusz, LHP5. Julio Teheran, rhp, Braves
Cameron Maybin, OFTravis Snider, OFDesmond Jennings, OF6. Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Rays
Clayton Kershaw, LHPBrett Anderson, LHPBuster Posey, C7. Aroldis Chapman, lhp, Reds
Franklin Morales, LHPCameron Maybin, OFPedro Alvarez, 3B8. Eric Hosmer, 1b, Royals
Homer Bailey, RHPMadison Bumgarner, LHPNeftali Feliz, RHP9. Mike Moustakas, 3b, Royals
David Price, LHPNeftali Feliz, RHPCarlos Santana, C10. Wil Myers, of/c, Royals
Travis Snider, OFTrevor Cahill, RHPDustin Ackley, 1B11. Jameson Taillon, rhp, Pirates
Matt Wieters, CPedro Alvarez, 3BAlcides Escobar, SS12. Dustin Ackley, 2b, Mariners
Jacoby Ellsbury, OFMike Moustakas, 3BJustin Smoak, 1B13. Shelby Miller, rhp, Cardinals
Andrew McCutchen, OFBuster Posey, CMadison Bumgarner, LHP14. Manny Machado, ss, Orioles
Jake McGee, LHPDexter Fowler, OFDomonic Brown, OF15. Matt Moore, lhp, Rays
Brandon Wood, SSMike Stanton, OFStarlin Castro, SS16. Michael Pineda, rhp, Mariners
Wade Davis, RHPLars Anderson, 1BMartin Perez, LHP17. Freddie Freeman, 1b, Braves
Mike Moustakas, 3BLogan Morrison, 1BJeremy Hellickson, RHP18. John Lamb, lhp, Royals
Elvis Andrus, SSAlcides Escobar, SSAaron Hicks, OF19. Mike Montgomery, lhp, Royals
Fernando Martinez, OFGordon Beckham, 2BLogan Morrison, 1B20. Chris Sale, lhp, White Sox
Rick Porcello, RHPRick Porcello, RHPRyan Westmoreland, OF21. Jacob Turner, rhp, Tigers
Carlos Gonzalez, OFChris Tillman, RHPAroldis Chapman, LHP22. Desmond Jennings, of, Rays
Matt LaPorta, OFJustin Smoak, 1BTyler Matzek, LHP23. Brandon Belt, 1b, Giants
Nick Adenhart, RHPEric Hosmer, 1BCasey Kelly, RHP24. Martin Perez, lhp, Rangers
Jordan Schafer, OFBrian Matusz, LHPKyle Drabek, RHP25. Lonnie Chisenhall, 3b, Indians


That's a somewhat messy list ain't it? Sure there are big time hits all over the place, but there are also a ton of so-so type guys - like Domonic Brown and Trevor Cahill - as well as outright failures (do you even know who Brandon Wood is?). The fact is that predicting players success is exceedingly difficult to do, even when you are talking about the elites. Remember, we're talking about the top-25 prospects in all of baseball in this piece, and look how many of those guys have failed to make any kind or mark or, at best, are barely holding on to semi-regular playing time - and these were the best prospects the game had to offer. 

This is why I caution people all the time about youngsters. It's why I wrote Kris Bryant - The Best There Ever Was at This Game, to try and warn people. I know most of you won't listen to me, or the data. You will listen to ESPN and the talking heads in fantasy sports. I get it. I just hope that if you're going to go all in with the youngsters that you at least go in with your eyes wide open. The game isn't as easy to play as you're led to believe. No matter how talented these youngsters are there is still a learning curve that all rookies have to go through. All I can say is be cautious. The rest is up to you.