That was one hell of a finish to the BMW Championship.  Two of the biggest names in the sport going back and forth down the stretch and into a playoff.  Seeing the raw emotion come out of those guys especially from a player like Dustin Johnson who is usually very reserved on the course was great for the game.  I give all the players who teed it up last week a lot of credit for grinding it over those four days in Illinois.  Olympia Fields gave these guys everything they could handle and more.  Now it’s on to the Tour Championship.     

The FedEx Cup Playoffs comes to a conclusion this week at East Lake Country Club in Atlanta, Georgia.  This tournament will be unlike anything we’ve seen this season.  Fans were not happy in 2018 when Tiger Woods won the Tour Championship but did not accumulate enough points to win the FedEx Cup which went to Justin Rose.  The PGA Tour changed the format to where the winner of the Tour Championship also wins the FedEx Cup and the $15 million dollar bonus.  The tournament will start with this leaderboard:

Dustin Johnson -10

Jon Rahm -8

Justin Thomas -7

Webb Simpson -6

Collin Morikawa -5

Daniel Berger -4

Harris English -4

Bryson DeChambeau -4

Sungjae Im -4

Hideki Matsuyama -4

Brendon Todd -3

Rory McIlroy -3

Patrick Reed -3

Xander Schauffele -3

Sebastian Munoz -3

Lanto Griffin -2

Scottie Scheffler -2

Joaquin NIemann -2

Tyrrell Hatton -2

Tony Finau -2

Kevin Kisner -1

Abraham Ancer -1

Ryan Palmer -1

Kevin Na -1

Marc Leishman -1

Cameron Smith E

Viktor Hovland E

Mac Hughes E

Cameron Champ E

Billy Horschel E  

While Dustin Johnson has a huge advantage this weekend, it is not the be all end all.  Last year was the first year of this format and Justin Thomas had top spot with the 10 under starting score but it was Rory McIlory who won the Tour Championship starting at 5 under.  Rory may be a two time winner at East Lake and the defending champion but I’ll be avoiding him in my lineups because his wife is due any day and he’s already said he’ll leave to be with her for the birth of their first child.    

East Lake is a Par 70 that measures out 7,346 yards.  This course was designed by Donald Ross who also created two similar courses: Sedgefield (Wyndham) and Detroit Country Club (Rocket Mortgage).  While a lot of the players in this field haven’t played those events, we do have some history to draw from this week.  For example, Justin Thomas, Xander Schauffele, and Billy Horschel have never finished outside the Top 10 at East Lake.  When you look at the stats which have correlated to success at East Lake, the ones I’ll focus on this week are Fairways Hit, Strokes Gained: Approach, Greens in Regulation, Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Sand Saves, and Par 4 Efficiency 450-500.  Golfers will need to keep out of trouble as we’ve got six water hazards and over 70 bunkers.  Fairways and greens as much as possible.

If I’m being completely honest, I’m going to play very little this weekend.  I’ll save my bankroll and use it next week when we go back to a full field event at the Safeway Open.  Did you know that the U.S. Open is in just two weeks?  That’s right, I’d rather put my money into those events.  I’ve put together example lineups focusing more on the players who are starting from behind and have to catch Dustin Johnson.  I feel like that’s the strategy to take this weekend, but you can’t completely fade him.

Reminder that this tournament starts on Friday morning and goes through Monday Labor Day.             

ONE & DONE PICK: Billy Horschel (If your league does a pick for this week’s tournament.

BEST BETS OF THE WEEK (All Available on DraftKings Sportsbook):

SIDE NOTE: If I have someone as a bet to win, I also endorse them for a Top 5 or Top 10 bet as well.

Webb Simpson Winner: +1000

Xander Schauffele Winner: +2500

Tony Finau Winner: +5500

Billy Horschel Winner: +22500

Jon Rahm Better Finishing Position than Dustin Johnson +100