DFS PGA PLAYBOOK - THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP
Published: May 11, 2017
I knew last week would be a difficult one to predict and that was about the only thing I got right. It was an ugly week for the Playbook in Wilmington and all I can say is, course history matters. I can’t wait to move on and take a look at The Players Championship!
This tournament is widely regarded as the tour's fifth major. It is played yearly at TPC Sawgrass in Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida and known best for its famed island green on the 17th hole. This hole has shattered the dreams of many PGA Tour pros but it is one of the most exciting holes to watch on Tour. But there is a lot more to this course than just an gimmicky island green, so lets get to it ...
Accuracy is the name of the game. This track is not particularly long at only 7,215 yards but even when these pros think they have hit a good shot, they can’t be too sure. These players must know how to get themselves out of trouble which means scrambling becomes key to success this weekend. TPC Sawgrass was designed by Pete Dye and if you've ever played one of his courses, you know it can be quite a humbling experience. Luck has a crucial role at the Players because depending on where you land the ball on these slopes, they can be your best friend or your worst enemy. The greens are big and these players will attack them but they are also known to be very fast.
When you look at course history, players who are known as good course managers have had the most success. We're looking for all around solid players from tee-to-green with excellent GIR numbers. Players must avoid hazards and disastrous situations, so length off the tee is not as important as landing your ball in the fairway. This is a difficult course and no tour player is completely safe from missing the cut. There are 146 golfers in the field and the Top 70 including ties will see weekend action.
I just wanted to take a moment to remind all my readers that the players listed in my playbook are the golfers that I personally recommend using this weekend. All the 9K plus golfers on DraftKings have the capability to win this tournament but you must draw the line somewhere because you obviously cannot use all of them. I am not going to say that you're an idiot for playing Dustin Johnson, Jordan Spieth, or Jon Rahm this week because all of them can win. After doing my research, the players I've listed are the ones that I'm building my lineups around. Just because I did not list a guy like Jason Day in the playbook, does not mean I am completely fading him this weekend. Let’s look at Jason Day who we all know is a terrific player with a really nice track record at TPC Sawgrass but it still looks like he’s trying to right the ship after a challenging start to the 2017 season. I may throw him into one GPP but I will be underweight on him. I have personally chosen to ride Rory, Sergio, Hideki, and Rickie this weekend and we will see how it all shakes out.
As always, I wish you all the best of luck and make sure you follow me on Twitter @Drew_Phelps83. Please feel free to tweet me throughout the weekend about the tournament. Let’s all win big!
UPDATED ON FRIDAY (5/12/17) AT 9:00PM ET
GPP OPTIMAL #1
DFS PGA PLAYBOOK:
| PLAYER | DRAFT KINGS | FANDUEL | BREAKDOWN |
| Rory McIlory | $11,200 | $10,500 | 7 Straight Top 10s in Stroke-Play Events since September. 3 Top 10s & T12 in last 4 Players. 70.06 Scoring Average. Fresh from his Wedding. |
| Sergio Garcia | $10,200 | $9,200 | The ALL TIME Earnings Leader at The Players. Rested; 1st Time playing since the Masters win. 2nd in Adjusted Scoring & 5th in Bogey Avoidence |
| Hideki Matsuyama | $9,700 | $9,600 | 3 Top 10s & 2 Wins but not much since the Waste Management but ALWAYS a threat. The price is TOO good. T23-T17-T7 at Sawgrass |
| Rickie Fowler | $9,300 | $9,400 | Runner Up, Win in 2015 & Missed Cut in 2016 but having an amazing season with no finishes below 12 in Stroke Play events since Phoenix |
| Justin Rose | $9,200 | $9,400 | 13 Starts at the Players with a T4 in 2014 & T19 in 2016. Runner up at the Masters with 3 other Top 10s this season. Always a GREAT value. |
| Justin Thomas | $8,900 | $9,100 | Cooled off BIG TIME after his Back to Back win start to 2017. Finished T24 in 2015 & T3 last year in his 2 Trips. Leads TOUR in Birdie or Better % |
| Brooks Koepka | $8,600 | $8,400 | 3rd Round in 2016 crushed his dreams but T9 at Match Play followed by a T11-2nd-T5 run for the bomber. 2nd in Birdie or Better % |
| Kevin Chappell | $8,500 | $6,700 | Won in San Antonio and had a T7 at the Masters. He finished 2nd place last year behind Jason Day. |
| Adam Scott | $8,400 | $9,300 | 5/5 Cuts Made at the Players with 3 Top 20s. He's been quiet this season but always efficient. 17th in Adjusted Scoring. |
| Patrick Reed | $8,000 | $8,200 | This is a pure GUT play on my part. Only 1/3 Cuts Made Here (T24 in 2015) but he's shown signs of life and I could see him making noise |
| Jason Dufner | $7,800 | $7,100 | Top 25s in 8 of his last 9 starts. T6 at Sawgrass in 2011 but hasn't cracked the Top 25 since. 35th in SG:TG, T17 in Proximity & 26th in Birdie or Better % |
| Francesco Molinari | $7,700 | $7,600 | Boom or Bust play at the Players. He's 3/6 in Cuts Made but has turned those 3 Cuts into 3 Top 10s including his last 2 Trips. |
| Lee Westwood | $7,500 | $6,900 | The STATS may not be great but hard to ignore 4 Top 20s in 2017. He also has Top 10s at the Players in 2010, 2013, & 2014. |
| Martin Kaymer | $7,300 | $8,500 | Won the Players in 2014 & has made the cut in all 8 trips. LOVE HIM! 14 months without a missed cut. Two T4s among 7 Top 25s worldwide. |
| Zach Johnson | $7,200 | $7,800 | T18 last week at Eagle Point. He's made 8 cuts at the Players since 2009 with 5 Top 25 finishes. He will be under owned this weekend. |
| Charl Schwartzel | $7,100 | $7,100 | Under the Radar 3rd place at the Masters & 6th in his title defense at Copperhead. 5/6 Cuts Made at the Players. |
| David Hearn | $7,000 | $5,200 | 5/5 Cuts Made since his debut in 2012 (T28 last year). He's got a 71.4 scoring average with 14 under par rounds. 3 Top 20s in last 2 Months |
| Marc Leishman | $6,800 | $7,100 | 5/5 Cuts Made at the Players since 2012 (T8 & another 2 Top 25s). There is wind in the forecast which means he's always a great play |
| Branden Grace | $6,800 | $7,500 | Contrarian Value Option. Never missed the cut in 4 trips to the Players. He's a player who could pop ANY week on Tour. GPP Option |
| Graeme McDowell | $6,700 | $6,900 | 8 Top 30s in 2017. 7th in Fairways Hit & 11th in SG:Putting. T9 last year was his Best Finish. Good Player at a Great Price |
| Kyle Stanley | $6,700 | $5,500 | 12/14 Cuts Made this season with 2 Top 10s & another 4 Top 25s. 2nd in Ball Striking, 4th in Proximity & Top 15 in Par 4 & 5 Scoring |
| Alex Cejka | $6,500 | $4,800 | 6/8 Cuts Made Here (2 - T9 Finishes including Last Year). He is not playing well coming in but I like history for this price in a GPP |
DRAFT KINGS OPTIMALS:
| DRAFT KINGS CASH | PRICE |
| Sergio Garcia | $10,200 |
| Rickie Fowler | $9,300 |
| Adam Scott | $8,400 |
| Martin Kaymer | $7,300 |
| Zach Johnson | $7,200 |
| Marc Leishman | $6,800 |
| DRAFT KINGS GPP | PRICE |
| Rory McIlory | $11,200 |
| Rickie Fowler | $9,300 |
| Adam Scott | $8,400 |
| Martin Kaymer | $7,300 |
| Kyle Stanley | $6,700 |
| Alex Cejka | $6,500 |
FANDUEL OPTIMALS:
| FANDUEL CASH | ROUNDS | PRICE |
| Brooks Koepka | 1 & 2 | $8,400 |
| Jason Dufner | 1 & 2 | $7,100 |
| Marc Leishman | 1 & 2 | $7,100 |
| David Hearn | 1 & 2 | $5,200 |
| Sergio Garcia | 3 & 4 | $9,200 |
| Martin Kaymer | 3 & 4 | $8,500 |
| Zach Johnson | 3 & 4 | $7,800 |
| Kevin Chappell | 3 & 4 | $6,700 |
| FANDUEL GPP | ROUNDS | PRICE |
| Patrick Reed | 1 & 2 | $8,200 |
| Kyle Stanley | 1 & 2 | $5,500 |
| David Hearn | 1 & 2 | $5,200 |
| Alex Cejka | 1 & 2 | $4,800 |
| Rory McIlory | 3 & 4 | $10,500 |
| Rickie Fowler | 3 & 4 | $9,400 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 3 & 4 | $9,600 |
| Kevin Chappell | 3 & 4 | $6,700 |
ONE & DONE PLAY:
| ONE AND DONE PLAY | FINISH |
| SBS - Jimmy Walker | T9 |
| Sony - Charles Howell III | T8 |
| Career - Bill Haas | T17 |
| Farmers - Brandt Snedeker | T9 |
| Waste - Brendan Steele | T16 |
| Pebble - Phil Mickelson | 65th |
| Genesis - J.B Holmes | T34 |
| Honda - Graeme McDowell | T14 |
| Mexico - Alexander Noren | T55 |
| Valspar - Ryan Moore | T18 |
| Palmer - Zach Johnson | T66 |
| Match - Sergio Garcia | Out of Sweet 16 |
| Puerto - David Hearn | T17 |
| Shell - Lee Westwood | MC |
| Masters - Justin Rose | 2nd |
| RBC - Kevin Kisner | T11 |
| Valero - Charley Hoffman | T40 |
| Wells Fargo - Adam Scott | T36 |
| Players - Martin Kaymer | ??? |