It seems that we just can’t pick the right week when it comes to Rickie Fowler. The guy crushed us at the Masters in April and he did it again in May at the Players. When you look back over the playbook from last week, the value plays really performed well and could have set up a huge weekend if the top tier plays like Fowler, Stenson, Garcia, Johnson and Walker would have shown up. Well, it’s another week and a great tournament down in Texas at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
The first thing you should notice when doing your research is that the course had a redesign back in 2007, which means everything prior to that year can be thrown out the window. Since the redesign, the experts have fought over whether this course benefits the long hitters or the accurate players. When you take a look at the winners since the redesign: Scott Verplank, Adam Scott, Rory Sabbatini, Jason Day, Keegan Bradley, Jason Dufner, Sang Moon Bae, Brendan Todd and Steven Bowditch, it’s a pretty even split of long hitters and accurate players. This goes the same when you look at the top 10s. The fact that most seem to forget is that there are more 300 hitters than ever before on the PGA Tour and last years’ top 10 was full of bombers like Charley Hoffman, Jimmy Walker, Dustin Johnson, Daniel Berger, Tony Finau and Ryan Palmer. I think you can tell which side of the argument that I’m on. BOMBS AWAY!
If you are going to roster a shorter hitter, make sure they can keep the ball in the fairway. That’s why you’ll see names like Jordan Spieth, Matt Kuchar, Danny Lee, Brandt Snedeker, and John Huh still in my playbook despite not being long off the tee. All of these players have good records on this track.
TPC Four Season Resort is not known as one of the better courses on the tour schedule, in fact it is consistently voted as one of the worst by the players. The course is relatively short for a pro course but the fairways are narrow and has a lot of bunkers. You’ll notice in my playbook, there are players listed because of their sand save percentages. When you look through players that have finished top 10 on this course, most all of them have been -6 or better on the Par 5’s for the week and this course has only two being a par 70. The average winning score has been around -12 which means that Par 5 scoring will make up half your score, I’d say that’s a pretty important stat to target. We’re also looking for players who hit greens on a regular basis and you can never forget putting, even though these greens are not known to be very difficult.
Lastly, we’d like to welcome back our spiritual guide, Paige! She was disappointed with our performance last week and she has decided to tune up for this week’s tournament at TPC Four Seasons by working on her bunker game.
Good Luck and score big this weekend! Side note, I’ll be writing my article for you guys next week from Europe as I’ll be traveling to France and Germany with my wife and immediate family. That’s dedication!
DFS PGA PLAYBOOK:
PLAYER | ACES | DRAFTKINGS | BREAKDOWN |
Jordan Spieth | $6,100 | $12,500 | Texas Native but not himself right now. 5/5 Cuts Made Here (16th High Finish). Contrarian Play with everyone off him. |
Dustin Johnson | $6,000 | $11,900 | He will be REALLY highly owned. 4 Top 10s in 6 Starts Here. 300+ Yard Hitter. Playing Great (3 Top 5s in last 5 Starts) |
Matt Kuchar | $5,850 | $10,500 | 8/8 Cuts Made Here (2 Top 10s). He makes the cut and has upside. Safest play on the board - Cash Game Playable |
Charl Schwartzel | $5,600 | $10,100 | 3/3 Cuts Made Here (3rd & 11th Finishes). 300+ Yard Hitter with a spotty putter. Cooled from a hot start but playable |
Brooks Koepka | $5,550 | $9,600 | 300+ Yard Hitter (BIG TIME). Finished 16th Last Year Here and could do better this year. GPP Option with recent play |
Marc Leishman | $5,100 | $9,500 | 5/7 Cuts Made here (3 Top 10s). 10/13 Cuts Made this Year (1 5th Place). He's a nice solid safe play, nothing flashy |
Brandt Snedeker | $5,600 | $9,300 | 2/3 Cuts Made Here (6th Last Year). Cut Maker with Upside and another GOOD Sand Player. |
Ryan Palmer | $5,200 | $8,900 | Texas Native has made his last 5 Cuts Here (3 Top 10s). Missed only 1 Cut all year. 300+ Yard Hitter. Cash Playable |
Danny Lee | $5,000 | $8,600 | 3/4 Cuts Made Here. 3 Straight Cuts Made this season. Great Sand Player on a VERY SANDY COURSE. Cash Playable |
Gary Woodland | $5,000 | $8,500 | 6/7 Cuts Made Here (1 Top 10). 300+ Yard Hitter. No Top 10s this year but 12/13 Cuts Made. DUE TO BREAK OUT! |
Tony Finau | $4,800 | $8,100 | In his Debut here last year finished 10th. 300+ Yard Hitter. He won in Puerto Rico, Nice price for his upside. |
Scott Piercy | $4,850 | $8,000 | 12/13 Cuts Made this Year. 3/5 Cuts Made Here (5th High Finish). 300+ Yard Hitter. T23 Last Week at the Players. |
Graham Delaet | $4,900 | $7,900 | 4/5 Cuts Made Here (2 Top 10s). 300+ Yard Hitter and hitting his greens. Putter will determine his fate. CASH Playable |
Bryce Molder | $4,700 | $7,600 | 3 Top 12s & 2 Top 10s in last 4 Starts on Tour. 5/7 Cuts Made Here. Not a bomber but can really putt. Hot Hand Play! |
Harris English | $4,800 | $7,500 | 2/3 Cuts Made Here (17th High Finish). 300+ Yard Hitter but not in great form right now. CONTRARIAN GPP Play |
Jhonattan Vegas | $4,650 | $7,100 | 11/15 Cuts Made this Year. 3/3 Cuts Made Here but hasn't done much on the weekends. 300+ Yard Hitter. |
John Huh | $4,600 | $6,900 | 3/4 Cuts Made Here (8th & 16th Finishes). He isn't playing great but seems to love this track. Should be low owned |
Jerry Kelly | $4,500 | $6,700 | 5/6 Cuts Made Here (3rd High Finish). He's a cut maker with upside on the weekend. T19 Last Week at Players. |
David Toms | $4,450 | $6,600 | Made Last 5 Cuts on Tour (4 Finishes inside Top 40). Leads the field in Sand Save Percentage. VERY SANDY Course |
Andrew Loupe | $4,550 | $6,600 | Boom or Bust GPP Play. 9/16 Cuts Made this Year (4 Top 10s). A player that can win you a GPP. 1/2 Cuts Made Here. |
Robert Garrigus | $4,000 | $6,500 | 7/9 Cuts Made Here since 2007 (9th High Finish). Made his last 2 Cuts on Tour. 300+ Yard Hitter. Good Upside |
J.J. Henry | $3,900 | $5,800 | 11/15 Cuts Made this Year. 7/9 Cuts Made since 2007 (3rd High Finish). Not playing great this year, GPP FLIER! |
Will Zalatoris | $3,300 | $5,400 | Complete Stars N Scrubs GPP Flier. College Sophomore Playing on Sponsor Exemption. Course 20 miles from his home |
DRAFT KINGS OPTIMALS:
DRAFT KINGS CASH | PRICE |
Matt Kuchar | $10,500 |
Ryan Palmer | $8,900 |
Danny Lee | $8,600 |
Graham DeLaet | $7,900 |
Jhonattan Vegas | $7,100 |
Jerry Kelly | $6,700 |
DRAFT KINGS GPP | PRICE |
Jordan Spieth | $12,500 |
Brooks Koepka | $9,600 |
Gary Woodland | $8,500 |
Scott Piercy | $8,000 |
J.J. Henry | $5,800 |
Will Zalatoris | $5,400 |
FANTASY ACES OPTIMALS:
ACES CASH | PRICE |
Matt Kuchar | $5,850 |
Ryan Palmer | $5,200 |
Graham DeLaet | $4,900 |
Bryce Molder | $4,700 |
Jhonattan Vegas | $4,650 |
Jerry Kelly | $4,500 |
ACES GPP | PRICE |
Jordan Spieth | $6,100 |
Brooks Koepka | $5,550 |
Gary Woodland | $5,000 |
Danny Lee | $5,000 |
Scott Piercy | $4,850 |
Will Zalatoris | $3,300 |
ONE AND DONE OPTIMALS:
ONE AND DONE PLAY | FINISH |
Hyaundai: Patrick Reed | 2nd - $688,000 |
Sony: Harris English | T56 - $12,818 |
CareerBuilder: Bill Haas | T9 - $162,400 |
Farmers: Nick Watney | Missed Cut |
Phoenix: Ryan Moore | T11 - $149,500 |
Pebble: J.B. Holmes | T11 - $143,500 |
Northern Trust: K.J. Choi | T5 - $258,400 |
Honda: Luke Donald | T61 - $13,115 |
WGC-Cadillac: Dustin Johnson | T14 - $120,000 |
Valspar: Kevin Na | T22 - $52,959.09 |
Arnold Palmer: Francisco Molinari | T9 - $170,100 |
Puerto Rico: Scott Brown | T5 - $109,500 |
Shell Open: Charley Hoffman | T33 - $36,720.00 |
The Masters: Phil Mickelson | Missed Cut |
RBC Heritage: Matt Kuchar | T9 - $147,500 |
Valero: Billy Horschel | T4 - $233,740 |
Zurich: Justin Rose | Missed Cut |
Wells Fargo: Gary Woodland | T24 - $62,232.50 |
Players: Sergio Garcia | T54 - $24,150 |
Byron Nelson: Ryan Palmer | ??? |