Over the years, early season fantasy baseball has given way to some notable stories of pan flash and fizzle. Just last year we had Matt Davidson hit three home runs in the season opener, while Ian Happ not only hit seven homers in spring training, but he also took the first pitch of the first game of the regular season way deep and gone. While pundits buzzed about the potential of both youngsters going forward, Happ would struggle to find consistent playing time the rest of the way, while Davidson would hit only nine home runs after May 13th. In 2017, Brewers outfielder Eric Thames hit 14 home runs in his first 47 games, however managed just eight after the All-Star break. In 2016 Trevor Story hit seven home runs in the first week of the season, but finished the year with only 17 more over his next 91 games. Not to say that all of these guys were huge fantasy disappointments, but the point is that after their incredibly quick starts, expectations for the rest of the season became distorted. Your best advice when no named players come out of seemingly nowhere to produce in a big way in April – exercise patience.
The same can be said for notoriously slow starters or guys who don’t exactly match the pace of the back of their baseball cards immediately out of the gates. Below are some notable examples of historically slow starters, but proven fantasy options that are definitely worth exercising patience for.
The Case For Kluber
You know who is kind of average in April? Corey Kluber . You know who’s kind of amazing at baseball for the rest of the year? Corey Kluber . In Kluber’s career, he’s just one game over .500 in terms of record (12-11) in the months of March and April and boasts nearly a full run higher in ERA (3.69) in relation to his career numbers throughout the rest of the season. While 2018 bucked this trend of slow starting for the Indians ace, 2017 was a completely different story.
Entering the year, Corey Kluber was coming off of a 2016 in which he posted an 18-9 record, a 3.14 ERA, and over 225 strikeouts. Considering this, he properly earned an ADP (average draft position) of 2.11, or in other words, a late second round grade in most fantasy drafts. To say that this was a lofty selection and investment for prospective fantasy owners is a true understatement. As often can occur though, with lofty expectations comes early season struggles, and Corey Kluber was no different that year. By the first week in May, the sky appeared to be falling.
Kluber got off to a horrendous start, especially when considering his high draft position, as he pitched to a bloated 5.06 ERA in 37 1/3 innings. Worst of all though, after his first start in May where he lasted just three innings and was knocked around to the tune of five earned runs on seven hits, Kluber was placed on the DL due to lower back tightness.
Understandably, Kluber owners were frantic. As the month of May wore on, many of them were unloading him from their rosters via trade, while owners who played in no-DL leagues felt their hand forced to just outright cut the former Cy Young Award winner.
This proved to be a fatal mistake in the form of impatience.
After a few weeks off, Kluber came back in June, looking like a new man. Over his next 23 regular season starts, Kluber would go on to pitch to an incredible 1.62 ERA, while leading the league in wins, WAR, WHIP, K/BB, complete games, and shutouts. He won the American League Cy Young Award and finished as the number one overall fantasy player according to ESPN’s “Player Rater.” Through early season struggles and a lengthy injury, it was very easy for many owners to give up on Kluber, but with patience and faith in his talent, smart fantasy owners got themselves the number one overall fantasy player when the year was said and done.
While he wasn’t slow out of the gates in 2018, his early season struggles in 2017 are more typical of the rest of his career. It is no secret that Kluber is a top-five pitcher in this league and his April bugaboos have yet to change that narrative. Keep that in mind if Kluber gets off to another slow start this year, rather than believing that he’s finished because he also sucked in last season’s playoffs.
Consistent Cano
In the fantasy sports world, exhibiting patience is rarely necessary when concerning the term “consistency,” however in this scenario we are discussing Robinson Canó and how he is consistently a slower starter and a stronger finisher.
As you can see with Cano, while his early season stats (April, May, June) over his career are respectable, they aren’t up to the standards of fantasy owners who historically have spent an early round pick on him each season. He’s a career hitter of well over .300 with plus power and run production, but much of that doesn’t appear until the second half (July, August, September) of his seasons. In fact he’s had several April’s and May’s in which he has batted under .200, testing the patience of fantasy owners. But anyone who knows Cano, understands that he will heat up in the second half like a microwave.
Last year served as an even more dramatic example of this, as the middle of Cano’s season featured an 80-game PED suspension. While he batted a solid .287 in the first half of the season, Cano posted a .317 second half, including a September/October in which he batted .343 and hit four homers. Now 36-years old, it is reasonable to expect a slight dip in production going forward, however keep in mind that he figures to be a middle of the order presence for this improved Mets lineup.
A good tip with Cano is to keep tabs on him and the owner who drafted him, instead of drafting him yourself. Once he inevitably struggles early on, see if you can snag him at pennies on the dollar. Your patience with him will undoubtedly pay off, while the other owner’s lack thereof will come back to bite them when the games start to matter the most.
This approach works for anyone with a proven track record of being a better second half performer than they are early on. Fantasy owners quickly become impatient, so use it to your advantage in the trade market.
Klutch Davis
Talk about a guy who is a far better second half performer than he is in the first… Khris Davis , despite having played in 39 fewer games in the second half of seasons throughout his career, has 23 more home runs, a better batting average, more RBI’s, an actually respectable on base percentage (.328), and 72 fewer strikeouts. His OPS and slugging are nearly 100-points higher each, while he seemingly leads the A’s to a late-season playoff push every year. Now exercising patience with Davis is a bit trickier because he’s by no means a bad player in the first half either, but the key to using him for fantasy success is that owning him in the second half is much more beneficial than it is in the first. With his lessened power production and poor OBP, those operating in category leagues may sabotage themselves a bit in the first half of seasons, while his historic power rate and improved OBP in the second half could lead you to a fantasy title. Like with Cano, my suggestion with Davis going forward is to show patience and discipline by not drafting him. However, when the All-Star break comes around, trade for him and even overpay for the guy if necessary. Last year he hit a league-leading 27 home runs post break, which had him on pace for essentially a home run every other day. His career averages have him hit one every third day in the second half of seasons. Isn’t that a nice luxury to have coming down the stretch of your fantasy baseball season?
When any sports season kicks off, it is typical for overreactions and irrational hot takes to become the accepted narrative even after just one week. Remember when people were talking about the Buccaneers potential undefeated season and Ryan Fitzpatrick’s MVP campaign? How about how the Knicks were going to make the playoffs? It is only natural because people are just overly excited to see that their favorite sport is back. With baseball, for whatever reason – the advent of spring fever, the unquenchable thirst for America’s pastime, the smell of freshly cut grass and hot dogs, etc. – this is taken to the next degree. Because of this, it is very important in fantasy baseball to exercise patience, as most of the other owners in your league will resort to impulse and desperation. Remember that they write career statistics on the back of player’s baseball cards for a reason. More often than not, if a player has had a career of sustained success, an early season struggle isn’t the end of the world and usually his numbers will ascend to the mean. Even more importantly, if a player usually struggles early on in the season, it is important to remain patient, especially if you selected this player early on in your draft. Beyond that, keep in mind of players who particularly excel in the later portion of the season. Refrain from investing too much in these guys early on, but instead obtain assets that will help you acquire them for the stretch run of your fantasy season.