Well that was fast…
It seems like just yesterday, that the fantasy football season was kicking off and you couldn’t put on a single radio station without hearing Drake’s “In My Feelings.” Now it’s cold outside, the saga of Ariana Grande’s love life is all the rage, and the NFL coaching carousel is getting incredibly crowded. Where did the time go?
With the NFL fantasy season now concluded, what’s a fantasy enthusiast such as yourself to do? Sure there is the NBA and NHL, but they don’t exactly scratch the same itch, while fantasy golf is more of a niche to most (however I would argue that it is the best fantasy sport, but I digress).
How about this? Would you believe me if I told you that pitchers and catchers were set to report in less than five weeks? Seemingly every year, the landmark date in the fantasy world creeps up on us and suddenly we are smack dab in the middle of Spring Training. This year, it is your turn to be prepared.
Welcome to Jim Bowden’s 2019 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide.
Accompanying the anchor articles such as Top-20 Sleepers, Top-20 Busts, and Top Rookies, are a boatload of player profiles and a series of strategy articles. But before you dive into all of that, it is important to start with the basics.
Consider this article the place to start when reintroducing your mind to fantasy baseball; a form of fantasy smelling salts, if you will. To keep it simple, call it “Know Your League Rules,” but it can also be thought of as a “What to Expect When You’re Expecting” for those playing the game for the first time.
Outlined below are the six critically important maxims concerning your upcoming fantasy baseball season. While all relevant to 2019, these guidelines are not just specific to this season. Really, any fantasy league you will ever partake in can trace back to these root points, with a few variances based on particular sport of course.
For our purposes, this article will include parables for the 2019 MLB season and will cover specifics to the overall fantasy baseball ethos.
From here on out, with Fantasy Alarm’s MLB Draft Guide, it will feel like springtime in January...
1) What’s my scoring system?
This is always the first place you have to start. I know that we’ve already established that you are no idiot, but you would be surprised to know just how many people finish their drafts in a roto style league and then instantly ask who they are playing in the first matchup. It may sound obvious, but the way your league keeps score can drastically change the outcome in potential matchups and/or weekly league rankings.
The most obvious example you will see is in statistical value. If you are in a standard rotisserie league then your team will score individual categories across the board, ranking each team in descending order from top to bottom. This will champion the teams that are comprised in the most well rounded of fashions; teams that can check off boxes in all different types of statistical categories. The same will go for head-to-head leagues that also value categories.
Now, contrarily things can look much different if your league gives each statistical category a point value rather than just counting each column against the rest of the league or your individual opponent. For example, for this upcoming season, early ADP (average draft position) statistics have Joey Gallo of the Texas Rangers rated 13 spots – or more than a full round – ahead of New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Hicks . Gallo is currently being valued at 103rd overall, or in the middle of the 8th round, while Hicks is 116th, also known as a late 9th rounder in category leagues. You would find it hard to get anyone in the know to argue vehemently against this, as Gallo’s standing as one of the league’s premier power hitters over the last two years gives him undeniable value in category leagues. However, if your league values points over categories, it indisputable that Hicks is by far the better fantasy option.
“Why is this?” You may ask…
In point driven leagues, all that matters are the points. If each stat can give you a point value, then why waste your time on a one trick pony? Statistically, Gallo is abysmal in nearly every other facet of statistical baseball outside of home runs and overall run production. While his prowess in that area gives him decent value generally in all formats, his drastically unbalanced skill-set artificially inflates his value in category leagues as opposed to those that use points.
In a points driven league getting a guy who can get points in several different ways will not only give him more chances to earn higher point totals, but he also will be a more consistent and reliable source of said points.
To continue using the Gallo vs. Hicks example, according to last season’s stats in a points league, Gallo – a guy who played in 11 more games than Hicks, mind you – finished as the 139th best fantasy player, while Hicks finished as the 57th. Looking at it from a draft value perspective, that's the difference between having a late 4th rounder and a mid-11th rounder. Rating their statistics over the last two full seasons – a span in which Gallo has been the consensus higher valued fantasy pick in most rankings – Hicks would go on to bat 47 points higher in average, 46 points higher in OBP, and when rated out over two 162 game seasons, Hicks would score 22 more runs, record 70 more hits, walk 19 more times, hit four more doubles, steal 20 more bases, and only record two less RBI and 28 less homers. Looking at it from this perspective shows you how Hicks can record fantasy points in a variety of different ways, giving him consistent value, while Gallo’s fantasy value rests more in category leagues for owners looking to fill their power categories.
This is just one of many examples of how critical understanding your league’s scoring system is. The ultimate takeaway here is that preseason rankings can be drastically different based upon how your league values stats. Stay sharp on that point when thumbing through player statistical models and general pre-draft rankings lists.
2) How many owners are in this league?
This one is far less complicated, but still important. Are you in a big league or a small one? If you operate out of an eight-man power league then each team is likely to be loaded with talent across the board. For those of you who play in the aforementioned category leagues, this type of league makes it nearly impossible to punt any particular category. If your league is spread incredibly thin however, with more than 12 owners, then understanding how to navigate the waiver wire becomes much more important, but we’ll get to that later. Ultimately, just understand that playing in a small league makes the draft that much more important because a premium is put on having the best of the best. Playing in a thinned out league means that you will have to be active each day trying to improve your roster with the league’s hottest pickups.
3) How are the rosters comprised?
This is the most important thing to know when entering your draft…
ESPN standard leagues set up their rosters as follows:
(C/1B/2B/SS/3B/5 OF/CI/MI/UTIL/9 P)
Yahoo! standard leagues set up their rosters as follows:
C/1B/2B/3B/SS/OF/OF/OF/Util/Util/2 SP/2 RP/4 P)
What does that mean to you? Well, that means that depending on where you are playing your league, your draft can go in a variety of different ways. In ESPN leagues there may be a lower premium on closers because you aren’t forced to roster relief pitchers – this is of course dependent on if you are playing in a points or category league and whether or not you are playing in a large or small league, so that you can have the option to punt on saves or not. In both formats, players with positional versatility will certainly have top value, however there is no doubt that owners in ESPN leagues will value position versatile players more due to the wider range of positions that they need to satisfy.
These are just examples of the differences between the two giants of the fantasy baseball industry. Keep in mind that there are dozens of different sites to play on and they all set up their rosters differently, thus making the drafting experience unique each time… something to keep in mind for sure.
4) How often do the rosters lock?
Some leagues lock on Monday morning until Sunday night and some leagues promote daily lineup changes. For those playing in weekly leagues, analyzing how many games each player will get for the week can change your lineup decisions drastically. If a player has two off days as opposed to his bench counterpart who is scheduled to play in all seven days of the week, you may want to flip-flop them for that matchup. The same goes for a pitcher who is scheduled to make two starts in a week as opposed to the player ahead of him who is only scheduled to make one. Which team the pitcher is going to face becomes more important in this type of format as well.
Daily lineup leagues are more tedious, yet simpler. The best way to maximize your roster is to take 10 minutes out of your day before the regular season starts and just make sure that every person who has a scheduled game is in your starting lineup for each day. I usually go a month at a time, making sure that anyone whose team has an off day is replaced by his bench counterpart for that day. This easy 10-minute task should be repeated on the first of the month for the rest of the season. Keep in mind that while this prepares you in theory to have a lineup set for each week, those in daily leagues have to check often to make sure their bench players aren’t hotter than their starting players and that their starting players aren’t injured, even for day-to-day injuries. Being on top of your roster management game is the best way to win in daily lineup formats.
5) What does the waiver format look like?
In recent years, waiver formats have changed across all fantasy sports. Historically each league’s waiver period operated within a resetting two-day window. After a player is claimed the rest of the league has two days to make the same claim. The player is awarded to the team with the highest priority, typically based off of record. The team awarded then moves to the back of the waiver line, and the cycle continues.
Leagues still by and large operate in this system, with menial differences based off whether your league is weekly or daily, however with the addition of the waiver budget system over the last decade or so, adding free agents became a little more complicated.
What’s most important when using a salary waiver system is to understand how your fellow owners are using it. It’s always a tough game of chicken to see who is going to set the market for free agents at the beginning of the year, but once a price is established, you can comfortably navigate for most of the rest of the season. Really though, just use your heads people… If there is a can’t miss prospect coming up – like Ronald Acuna last season or Vlad Guerrero Jr. this season, for example – then it may be acceptable to use a quarter of your yearly budget, especially in keeper leagues. On the other hand, trying to sneak a $0 claim in there for a spot starter on your daily lineup leagues may also be acceptable if the risk reward for not having the player on your roster at all weighs out correctly.
6) How much money am I winning this season?
This one is just for fun, because if you follow these steps prior to beginning your yearly fantasy baseball quest, you are likely to come out on top.
In order: check your league’s scoring system, assess your fellow owners, bone up on the roster composition, and check how often they lock. If you do all of that and master the ins and outs of your waiver wire, then you have done all that you can do to properly prepare for this fantasy baseball season.
Now you can feel free to dive head first into those player profiles, sleepers, busts, rookies and strategy articles that you so have been dreaming about all winter long. Good luck!