Chasing Fantasy Immortality

Is anyone really surprised how well Todd Gurley is playing so far this season? I mean I know his production each week has been great, but considering his amazing season last year, many of those who drafted him number one overall are likely just thinking that Gurley’s production to date is what they bargained for when they got an early pick in the draft.

I’m here to tell you that is not the case.

In fact, Gurley is not just leading the league in fantasy points this season, but instead is on pace for one of the greatest fantasy seasons of all time.

As I’m sure most of us know off the top of our heads just as well as we can refer to 1998 and 1961 and their respective home run races in baseball, 2006 takes claim of the greatest fantasy football season of all time.

His name: LaDainian Tomlinson.

His number: 481.1

No, not the number on the back of his jersey, but the number of PPR fantasy points that he put up in that season.

During that historic 2006 campaign, Tomlinson ran the ball 348 times for 1,815 yards and a still NFL record 28 rushing touchdowns. He added 56 receptions for 503 more yards and three more touchdowns, while he even threw for an additional two touchdowns, just to place a cherry on top of his banner year. As it stands now, the next closest fantasy season is that of Marshall Faulk in 2000, but his 459.9 mark keeps him more than 20 points – or in other words, almost a full game – away from Tomlinson’s stratosphere.

Now, back to Gurley, who is currently on pace for 344 carries, 1,662 rushing yards, 24 rushing touchdowns, 56 receptions, 658 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns, and a partridge in a pear tree. Or in other words, 469.3 PPR fantasy points.

At this pace he would fall just 11.7 points shy of Tomlinson’s historic mark set a full three presidencies ago… He’s having an excellent season and the scary thing is that with 10 weeks still to play, Gurley can increase his pace to put even more pressure on LT’s 2006 mark.

This is not just Gurley being Gurley, or the number one pick doing what he’s supposed to do. This is Mantle and Maris chasing down Ruth, McGwire and Sosa chasing down Maris... This is history in the making and we need to start paying attention.

What to do with James Conner?

The short answer… Keep him.

If you haven’t already traded him in anticipation for the return of Le’Veon Bell, good. If you just acquired him for dimes on the dollar because of the Bell return hype, even better.

My belief is that even when Bell eventually returns, he will, in the best case scenario, return to a timeshare split similarly to what the Saints are doing with their two superstar backs.

If you are wondering why, the answer is rather simple; Conner has earned it.

In the absence of Le’Veon Bell, Conner has stepped in and done yeoman's work. At his current pace over a 16 game schedule, Conner would have rushed for 1,208 yards, 19 touchdowns, and caught 69 passes for an additional 685 yards. Not only are those incredible numbers for a first year starter, but they also are just as good, if not better, than anything Bell has posted in his career thus far. At Conner’s pace, he’ll more than double any rushing touchdown number that Bell has ever posted, while his 1,208 rushing yards would put him right on par with Bell’s 1,377 that he averages typically over a 16 game season. And where you would expect there to be a huge difference – in the passing game – Conner has shocked everyone with his Bell like pace of nearly 70 receptions and close to 700 yards.

Now I’m not here to argue that Conner is a better football player than Le’Veon Bell, because the eye test tells a completely different story. But the fact of the matter is that without Bell, the Steelers production at the running back position hasn’t really dipped, if at all.

When Bell decides it’s time to come back, it is unlikely that the organization, the coaching staff, or the locker room welcomes him with open arms because quite frankly he really pissed a lot of people off, particularly the ones closest to him. His offensive line has publicly gone off on him to the media, while the organization has all but admitted that they are done with Bell after this season is over.

Planning to come back with less than half a season left doesn’t leave Bell with a lot of time to get back into the good graces of the Pittsburgh Steelers decision makers. If I’m putting my money somewhere, it’s on the fact that James Conner will continue to be the most productive Steelers back henceforth, Bell’s presence be damned.

NostraDomUs Boldly Predicts

Each week – whether through a DFS or a season-long lens – your beloved prophet, NostraDomUs, will offer a few predictions for the week to come at the running back position. In each following edition, we will reflect upon the previous predictions and keep a running tally across the season, termed “prophetic percentage.” Now without further ado… I give you NostraDomUs!

How’d we do last week?

Prediction #1: This is the week that Buccaneers rookie running back Ronald Jones shows up! He was inactive for the first three weeks of the season and then was used sparingly in his first official game in Week 4. In Week 6, Jones will lead the Bucs backfield in touches and will register at least 15 DraftKings points.  Wrong

Prediction #2: Melvin Gordon will finish as the top fantasy running back for Week 6.  Wrong

Welp, this season isn’t getting off to the predictive start that I had hoped. I think the problem is that my predictions have been too bold. For the most part I haven’t been terribly wrong about anything and in this segment, I think that I actually have given some great advice, but some of the predictions have been a bit too lofty and specific. For example, I could have said that Melvin would finish as a top-three back this week instead of the single top fantasy back. I gave you a great pick nonetheless, so what’s the damage really? In any event, things are sure to turn around. I predicted at a 58% clip last season, so I don’t expect this sub-20% nonsense to continue much longer.

Season-Long Prophetic Percentage: (17%)

Right: 2

Wrong: 10

WEEK 6 BOLD PREDICTIONS

Prediction #1: For the first time this season, David Johnson will score 22 or more PPR fantasy points.

This Thursday, the Cardinals welcome the Denver Broncos into town; a matchup in which the home team is two point underdogs. I’m trying to understand the disrespect, because while I understand that the Cardinals are no replica of the 85’ Bears, Denver hasn’t looked like anything too special either.

The Broncos -- hard-nosed and physical defensive team, right?

While that has been their reputation for the better part of the last five years or so, Denver’s defense has appeared a shell of its former intimidating self, particularly on the ground so far this season. Here are the stats of the backs that have played them over the last three weeks… Week 4: Kareem Hunt (19 carries, 121 yards, 1 TD, 3 receptions, 54 yards), Week 5: Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell (combined for 35 carries, 318 yards, 1 TD), Week 6: Todd Gurley (28 carries, 208 yards, 2 TD’s).

Simply put, the Broncos are no longer an elite defensive unit, at least against the run, as they have allowed back-to-back 200+ yard rushers and nearly 700 total rushing yards over the last three weeks. Give me an elite talent at the position like Johnson is, at home, against a bad rush defense like the Broncos are. He should have no problem reaching that 22+ point mark.

Prediction #2: Alvin Kamara will bounce back in a huge way this week and will get back over the 20 point plateau.

While the rest of the fantasy football world continues to cry about their timeshare fears, you can take my advice here and play some Alvin Kamara this week. Yes he was terrible last week, but as I have already explained in previous editions, that game was over by the first quarter. The Saints used the blowout game script to get their recently activated running back some much needed work. Kamara wasn’t necessary last week, but he will be this week. The Ravens welcome the Saints into Baltimore and feature a top-three rush defense. While that would sound counterintuitive in terms of starting Kamara, the fact of the matter is that it could very well actually play in the second year back’s favor. Mark Ingram is likely to get more of the work when the Saints are up and trying to kill clock, while Kamara – the more versatile and explosive of the two – is more likely to see time when the Saints are in a tight game. This game should be a tight one for New Orleans or in the worst case scenario, they should be down and needing to pass to make a comeback. Kamara is the best receiving back in the game and should be used often against the Ravens this upcoming Sunday. Remember folks, even with Ingram present last season, Kamara still averaged over 20 PPR points per contest. It would be a shock if he was absent for two weeks in a row.