Le’Veon Who?
Born and raised in Erie, Pennsylvania, committed and played college ball at the University of Pittsburgh, and drafted a Pittsburgh Steeler – the essence of western Pennsylvania runs through the veins of this running back. No, I’m not talking about three-time Pro Bowl running back Le’Veon Bell, but instead, suddenly rising star – James Conner .
Coming out of high school, Conner was one of the highly regarded running back recruits in the nation, especially while coming off of a near 1,700 yard season to go along with over 25 rushing touchdowns as senior in 2012. After choosing to stay close to home by playing at the University of Pittsburgh, Conner quickly became a star, leading the team in rushing as a freshman, finishing one yard shy of 800 for the season. By his sophomore season, Conner was smack dab in the middle of Heisman contention. By the end of 2014, Conner had racked up an astounding 1,765 rushing yards and managed to set a conference record with 26 rushing touchdowns.
Already a household name and an established talent amongst college football’s elite, it was a mere formality that Conner would go on to take the NFL by storm after his Junior season of eligibility.
Then tragedy struck.
Conner managed to thrash his MCL in the season opener of 2015, dashing his chances of a run at the Heisman Trophy.
And that wasn’t even the worst of it.
During his rehab process, due to unexplained bouts of fatigue – amongst other symptoms – Conner was diagnosed with Hodgkin’s Lymphoma, a cancer diagnosis that was expected to derail his football future.
Conner remained persistent though and dedicated his immediate future to rehab and chemotherapy. Miraculously, by the spring of 2015, Conner was declared “cancer free.”
He managed to play in 2016, very well at that, but garnered far less notoriety than he once had amongst draft evaluators. In the third round of the 2017 NFL draft, who else but his hometown Pittsburgh Steelers rolled the dice on a guy less than a year removed from cancer treatment?
As Conner had always done throughout his life, upon joining the NFL he remained a relentless worker and a silent assassin – a testament to his Pittsburgh roots.
Where many barely even acknowledged Conner as an afterthought while firmly seated behind the game’s best back in Le’Veon Bell, Conner maintained his focus; determined to make the most of any opportunity.
Eventually opportunity would knock.
It was hardly a secret that Bell was (rightfully) unhappy with his contract situation entering 2018. After being tagged for the second consecutive season, Bell had made it clear that he was going to hold out for at least the entire preseason. The expectation was that like last year, Bell would rejoin the team the Monday before the Steelers first game. This year, plans had changed. Bell’s agent released a sloppy press statement, hinting towards the potential of Bell sitting out until Week 10 of the regular season, so that he could get the bare minimum amount of service time for the season for it to actually count towards his current franchise tag.
Enter James Conner .
(click here for Week 1 James Conner highlights)
The rest is history I suppose, as Conner took his Week 1 opportunity in stride, serving as the Steelers offensive focal point and showing no signs of weakness in comparison to his predecessor. We all know that Le’Veon Bell is one of a kind and may arguably be the best back of his generation, however is it possible that he is replaceable?
By the looks of James Conner , that may just be the case.
To the tune of 31 carries for 135 yards and two rushing touchdowns, Conner looked every bit of the “bell cow” that Bell has proven to be. To even better exemplify his fit in the Steelers offense, Conner also held his own in the passing game, as he hauled in five of his six targets for 57 yards. For the foreseeable future, the Steelers seem to have regained their advantage in contract negotiations with Bell and it can be directly attributed to the emergence of Conner. Now fully healthy, with a more refined skill-set, and in the best shape of his life, Conner will continue to work hard and keep his head down. As fantasy owners, we may be concerned what will happen to him once Bell returns, but he himself isn’t letting that thought enter his mind. Conner has faced worse adversity in his life… And each time he has come out on top.
Modest Returns but Positive Steps Forward
Dalvin Cook , David Johnson . Two young running backs, loaded with talent, and proven as capable workhorses in today’s NFL. The similarities don’t end there though, as both also were cut down for all of last season due to catastrophic injuries.
In much anticipated returns in Week 1, it could be argued that they failed to live up to the hype. Cook finished with just 40 rushing yards and under 3.0 yards per carry, while David Johnson gained just 37 rushing yards to go along with a touchdown. Yes, their production was on the disappointing side, but when coming off of season-ending injuries, the focus shouldn’t solely rest on production, especially in their immediate return.
Instead, notice the positive signs.
Both Cook and Johnson returned without limitations and saw a full, feature-back, workload. Johnson tallied 14 touches in a losing effort, while he was targeted a whopping nine times in the passing game. Cook managed 22 total touches to go along with seven targets in the passing game.
Despite statistical disappointments to fantasy owners, at least according to their coaching staffs, both backs are back. Give them some time to shake off the rust. Matchups will eventually be more favorable, while their injuries are firmly in the past. It’s only a matter of time before they are back on top of the fantasy football world. And that time may just be this week…
NostraDomUs Boldly Predicts
Each week – whether through a DFS or a season-long lens – your beloved prophet, NostraDomUs, will offer a few predictions for the week to come at the running back position. In each following edition, we will reflect upon the previous predictions and keep a running tally across the season, termed “prophetic percentage.” Now without further ado… I give you NostraDomUs!
Prediction #1: Despite being priced as the 45th best back this week on DraftKings ($4,300) Royce Freeman will finish as a top-10 back for Week 2.
I’m not really sure what DraftKings is doing this week, but somehow Phillip Lindsay is priced $100 more than starter Royce Freeman . Sure Freeman didn’t get into the end zone last week, but he still managed over 70 rushing yards and 15 carries. Against a bad Raiders team this week, there is little doubt in my mind that Freeman will get the job done. He’s the DFS misprice of the week.
Prediction #2: James Conner repeats as a top-10 scorer but gains more receiving yards than rushing yards.
Conner not only impressed last week with his 31 carries for 136 yards and two touchdowns, but he also silenced the critics who claimed that he couldn’t handle the receiving demands necessary to fit in this offense with a five reception, 57 yard performance. This week, he takes on a Chiefs defense that allowed over 85 receiving yards to not one, but two running backs, as Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler combined for 14 receptions, 189 yards, and a touchdown in Week 1. Considering the nature of this Steelers offensive game plan and the Chiefs inability to stop running backs through the air, Conner should have a chance at over 100 receiving yards this week.
Prediction #3: Recently signed running back Jonathan Williams will receive more rushing attempts than Alvin Kamara this week.
This is by far my boldest prediction, but hear me out… The Saints have made it clear that they want to limit the exposure of Alvin Kamara , even during Mark Ingram ’s absence, which leads me to believe that they will try to keep him around 20 touches per game at most. With nearly half of those typically coming through the air, that leaves us with 12 or so carries that Kamara can expect in a given week. Obviously this is all subject to game flow, which is ironically why I feel so strongly about this prediction this week.
Coming off of an embarrassing loss, at home, in a shootout, there is no doubt in my mind that the Saints are going to demolish the Browns at home in Week 2. If they go up big early, there is a good chance that we will see a relief appearance for the Saints second units. With backup running back Mike Gillislee having coughed it up at a critical juncture last week, my guess is that Jonathan Williams will get a crack at running out the clock. Is it too crazy to imagine Williams getting 13 carries in a blowout second half while Kamara finishes with an effective 10? He only had eight carries last week and averaged just 7.5 per game last season… Something to think about.
Right now Williams is my DFS “shot in the dark” play of the week, as he is just $3,800 on DraftKings.