The Book Of Ezekiel
While this is a “week in review” article, this running back storyline is too big to not mention…
The 26th book of the bible features the prophet Ezekiel – a man living in exile in the city of Babylon. Throughout the book, Ezekiel receives visions of his former home, Jerusalem. First about it’s destruction and then about it’s revival.
In today’s fantasy sports world, our Ezekiel (Elliott) has been living in exile for the last six weeks by decree of the tyrant Roger Goodell. Upon Elliott’s suspension, the Dallas Cowboys saw initial collapse – just like Ezekiel prophesied would happen to Jerusalem. They lost three straight games, right off the bat, while they couldn’t muster more than nine points in any of the contests. The offense was anemic; the lines could get nothing done. The quarterback play was horrendous, balls were turned over left and right, while the defense could do nothing but play on their own end of the field. Dallas was burning right before our eyes.
Then a slow rebirth occurred – also true to the Ezekiel prophecy. Over the last three weeks the Cowboys have scrapped together impressive offensive production, while the defense has stepped up in ways not expected. They have been winning the turnover battle, while they have allowed a combined 41 points over the span – a number that they nearly gave up to the Eagles alone just five weeks ago.
While the rebirth has begun, things are still not right in Dallas. Just this past week the Cowboys nearly lost to the Raiders because on three separate occasions, they struggled to gain less than six inches on either the goal line or 3rd/4th down situations. It was so helpless that on the last drive alone they not only were given a first down by way of a folded index card, but they also opted to kick a go ahead field goal despite having two consecutive chances to score a touchdown from the 12-inch line. Sure the offense has been much better over the last month, but the fact remains that the Cowboys signature smash mouth ground game – the identity that got them 13 wins just a season ago – has been missing…
From one prophet to another,
I, NostraDomUs, hereby decree that Ezekiel Elliott – the Cowboys one true generational prophet – will return America’s Team back to the playoffs, against all odds.
Coming back is a player who last year racked up 1,631 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, while he was well on his way to another All-Pro season this year before Goodell stepped in… Prior to being suspended, Elliott was on pace for 1,566 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns, while his pace of 38 receptions, 420 receiving yards, and four receiving touchdowns would have bested even last year’s numbers.
For those playing in their fantasy finals this week, feel blessed that Elliott is returning when he is. Not only does Zeke look shredded from weeks of working out in foreign lands, but he also has a matchup this week against a Seattle defense that was just slaughtered at home to the tune of 200 yards and four touchdowns by Todd Gurley of the LA Rams. To say expectations are high for Elliott would be an understatement, but to question his destiny to succeed would also be questioning the word of God. The Book of Ezekiel has prophesized correctly before and it shouldn’t be counted out to do so again.
Dion Lewis And The News…
No, I’m not talking about the famed 1980’s pop rock band – Huey Lewis and the News. Instead I’m talking about a Patriots running back and the backfield news surrounding him; news that directly concerns fantasy owners.
First and foremost, the news…
Last Sunday, Patriots de facto “lead back” Rex Burkhead – a guy who has scored six times over the last four games – suffered a knee injury that will keep him out for the rest of the regular season. To say that there is currently a gaping void in this Patriots offensive game plan is an understatement…
Well, it would be an understatement, provided you hadn’t watched a New England Patriots game all season, however if you haven’t been living under a rock, then you would know that Dion Lewis is prepared to step right into the featured back role. In what has been considered a near even split with Rex Burkhead for the better part of the last two months, Lewis has been incredibly productive. Over the span of a six game stretch, Lewis – while not seeing the bulk of the carries mind you – has averaged nearly 70 rushing yards per contest at over 5.6 yards per carry. Sure he hasn’t scored a lot, but that is strictly due to the presence of Burkhead, who is preferred by the coaching staff around the goal line. We saw Lewis get into the end zone last week from short yardage once Burkhead went down with the injury, so there is no reason to expect that anyone else will vulture his opportunities going forward for the next couple of weeks.
Speaking of New England’s upcoming matchups, in Week 16 they are set to take on the Buffalo Bills – the league’s worst rush defense in the second half of this season. How bad have they actually been you ask? Start by considering the fact that they are allowing nearly 200 rushing yards per game since Week 9, including a Week 10 contest when they allowed almost 300 to the New Orleans Saints. The last time that Dion Lewis took on this helpless Bills rush defense, he went off for 92 yards on 15 carries, and that was with the presence of Rex Burkhead who added 78 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries of his own. Without Rex this time around, the sky should be the limit for Lewis.
In Week 17, the Pats get a shot at the New York Jets, who are allowing the 12th most rushing yards per game this season. Not horrible, but also nothing to write home about. The last time Lewis took on the Jets, he averaged 4.7 yards per carry, while he got into the end zone once. With Tom Brady and Gronk likely having little to play for in this Week 17 contest, chances are that the Pats will rely heavily on the ground game to move the clock and quickly end this matchup against a Jets team with no hope for the playoffs.
Simply put, if you are looking for a backfield edge down the final stretch of this season, consider Lewis as an elite option. He should have ample opportunities, against weak defenses, with almost no competition for looks. That should equal excellent fantasy value.
Making A Late Push
It wasn’t too long ago that I felt entirely secure in my preseason prediction that Le’Veon Bell would finish as the fantasy running back MVP– and he may very well still – but then, out of nowhere, rookie Alvin Kamara went on a heater and my hand was forced to make the argument for him to sneak away with the award. Now, with just two weeks left to go, I’m here to throw another name at you, and it shouldn’t come as a surprise…
After his slaughtering of the once feared Seattle Seahawks defense last week, Todd Gurley, right now, is not just the frontrunner for my made up award (TheEmmitt Smith Golden Football Award), but he’s also in serious consideration for the NFL league MVP award.
The Argument: Boiled down simply, fantasy football is about scoring touchdowns because they are worth the highest point value by a whole lot. Todd Gurley currently leads the league in rushing touchdowns by a wide margin with 13, he’s second amongst running backs in receiving touchdowns with four, and he’s first in the NFL in total touchdowns with 17, a whopping five clear of the next closest player. If you are looking for the guy who scores the most, Todd Gurley is your man.
Then consider that,in PPR formats, if you aren’t scoring touchdowns then the next most important stat is receptions. Gurley is currently 6th amongst running backs with 54 catches, while his added 630 receiving yards gives him an extra 117 fantasy points minimum, when combined with his impressive rushing and touchdown statistics.
Putting it all together, you’ve got yourself the number one scorer in overall fantasy points – in either standard or PPR scoring – according to Yahoo, ESPN, NFL.com, CBS, etc., etc.… If you are looking for a metric beyond fantasy football – and I’m not sure why you would be considering the purposes of this article –Gurley is also ranked by Pro Football Focus as the number one overall tailback.
Simply put, Gurley is transcending fantasy football to the point that he may just be the best overall football player in the league right now.
With two games left to go in this regular season, TheEmmitt Smith Golden Football Award (top fantasy running back) is still very much up for grabs. While the picture is still fuzzy on who will come out on top, what is entirely clear is that whoever wins will have to go through Gurley – your current frontrunner for the award… And that’s something that couldn’t have been said just one week ago.
Like with the Heisman Trophy, late season heroics weigh importantly in my criteria for voting on these awards. Make sure to tune back in after the regular season concludes for a full breakdown of my Running Back Awards Edition of The Running Back Workloads.
NostraDomUs Predicts – Week 15 Recap
Each Wednesday, in addition to this weekly article, I also publish theDFS RB Plays of the Week– an article reserved to PlaybookPro subscribers only. For our purposes here though, in hopes of keeping things how they have been for the past couple of seasons, I will consider those DFS selections as my "NostraDomUs Predicts" selections that I have been providing in this article for the past two years.
So to make things clear – I will make my running back picks in the other article for the upcoming week, and then I will recap the previous week's picks in this article. At the bottom of the page I will give a running season-long tally of my predictive record.
* Week 15 RB Predictions *
Elite Play(s)
Le’Veon Bell, PIT – Bell delivered on all of my promises for what seems the umpteenth consecutive week. In all he racked up nearly 30 fantasy points to the tune of 117 rushing yards, 48 receiving yards on five receptions, and one touchdown against the New England Patriots this past Sunday. With Antonio Brown out for the foreseeable future, expect to continue to see Bell on my DFS RB pick list for the final two weeks of the season.
Affordable Play(s)
Jordan Howard, CHI – Howard, while he still ended up in double-digits, served as one of the bigger fantasy disappointments for Week 15. Not only did he fail to get into the end zone, but he also failed to eclipse the 100-yard mark even through the combination of rushing and receiving. Considering his excellent history against the Lions, Howard seemed like the lock of the week. Instead he busted many a DFS lineup this past Saturday afternoon.
Kenyan Drake, MIA – Drake was an easy selection considering his current form and lack there of from the Bills rush defense. He didn’t disappoint, as he racked up nearly 25 fantasy points on 113 total yards, six receptions, and a touchdown.
Christian McCaffrey, CAR – While everyone was likely all in on Jonathan Stewart after his three touchdown performance in Week 14, I warned you to punt on the veteran in favor of the much more involved rookie. Once again, NostraDomUs prevailed, as the matchup for McCaffrey proved fruitful. In all, McCaffrey registered 73 yards and a receiving touchdown on six catches, while he turned his 12 carries into 63 rushing yards. Those numbers were good enough for over 25 PPR points in comparison to Jonathan Stewart’s mere 4.6 points.
Bargain Play(s)
Latavius Murray, MIN – For my third consecutive hit, Latavius Murray picked up 17.4 fantasy points at a price point under $5,000 on DraftKings. My three-pronged belief in game flow, matchup, and talent turned a profit for myself and likely also for Fantasy Alarm readers.
Jay Ajayi, PHI – Look, it certainly wasn’t a home run pick, but at a flex worthy $5,000, Ajayi’s 11 fantasy points were solid enough to get you in the money. The biggest crime here is that the Eagles continue to shun their midseason acquisition. Despite the fact that he racked up an incredibly efficient 89 total yards, the Eagles managed to only get him the ball 14 times in this contest. Had they established more of a consistent running game, maybe they wouldn’t have had to beat the lowly Giants in shootout fashion.
Alex Collins, BAL – Collins can be considered in the same category this past week… Well, subtract the efficient things I said about Ajayi and you have Collins at least. The point being that Collins didn’t cost you too much and he still ended up in double-digits. Don’t worry so much about his just 19 rushing yards on 12 carries because his five receptions for 35 yards helped his fantasy line even out.
Flyer Play(s)
James White, NE – Nope, just nope. I admitted that this was not a selection that I loved entering the week, but I didn’t want to leave you guys without a flex flyer. Once Rex Burkhead went down with a knee injury however, the hope for White doubled, but instead he delivered just a shade over two PPR points. Sorry for this one.
** NostraDomUs’ 2017 Running Back Predictions Record (NFL year to date) **
Right:(80) Wrong:(57)
Prophetic Percentage: (58%)