Dashing Through The Snow

Week 14, 2013: The Philadelphia Eagles took on the Detroit Lions in one of the most memorable snow games in NFL history. The Lions for most of the contest had this game in hand, as they were up 14-0 late into the third quarter. Keep in mind that a two-touchdown lead in over a foot of snow is typically considered equivalent to a 30-point lead in normal weather conditions. Then suddenly, Shady McCoy was unleashed, as he single handedly roared the Eagles back with two fourth quarter touchdowns of over 40-yards. By the end of the contest, the Eagles were up 34-20 – a 28 point swing in less than 20 minutes. In all, McCoy finished with one of the best snow stat lines in NFL history, as he turned his 29 carries into 217 rushing yards and two touchdowns.

Week 14, 2017: Four years later and nearly to the day, The Buffalo Bills took on the Indianapolis Colts in no less than what are considered blizzard conditions. Another close and sloppy game was to be had this day and thus was another snowy game for LeSean McCoy to take over. When all was said and done, McCoy finished with 156 rushing yards and a 25-yard overtime touchdown scamper that won the Bills the game.

With these two performances alone, I am willing to go out on a limb and call Shady the greatest snow player ever. Just from watching both games once, it is so clear that his legs work differently than every other player in the league. Where opponents are slipping and sliding, McCoy still has the ability to dead leg and cut on a dime, while also expertly varying his speeds like a crafty left-handed pitcher. With enough evidence now, this ability of his is something to add to the resume of Shady as a fantasy player. As I’m sure all of you know, weather matters, and rough weather is usually an indication on which players to stay away from. McCoy gives us a unique back to actually focus on when the weather is nasty. As the season winds down this winter, this is certainly a valuable piece of information to have, especially for DFS players out there.

Chronicles Of Riddick

Truth be told, this will have nothing to do with the 2004 Vin Diesel crossover hit. The title was simply too juicy to pass up considering that I’m writing a column on sparsely praised Lions running back, Theo Riddick...

Without much mention, between the previous two seasons (2015-2016), Riddick served as one of the league’s most effective pass catching backs. In 26 games played, the fifth year man out of Notre Dame racked up 133 catches for 1,068 yards, and eight touchdowns. Sure he has lost a little bit of playing time this season due to the reemergence of Ameer Abdullah, but over the last couple of weeks, Riddick has seen his workload increase because surprise, surprise, Abdullah is hurt again.

During this recent stretch of added work, Riddick has returned to his place of fantasy prominence. In the Lions last two contests, Riddick has not only caught 11 passes for 105 yards, but he also has added three rushing touchdowns on 19 carries. Going forward, provided Abdullah remains banged up (neck), there is little reason to consider Riddick anything other than a matchup proof flex option in all PPR formats.

NostraDomUs Predicts – Week 14 Recap

Each Wednesday, in addition to this weekly article, I also publish the DFS RB Plays of the Week – an article reserved to PlaybookPro subscribers only. For our purposes here though, in hopes of keeping things how they have been for the past couple of seasons, I will consider those DFS selections as my "NostraDomUs Predicts" selections that I have been providing in this article for the past two years.

So to make things clear – I will make my running back picks in the other article for the upcoming week, and then I will recap the previous week's picks in this article. At the bottom of the page I will give a running season-long tally of my predictive record.

* Week 14 RB Predictions *

Elite Play(s)

Le’Veon Bell, PIT – With another 125 total yards, nine receptions, and three more touchdowns last week, Bell only further proved why he’s the most productive and consistent PPR fantasy player available right now. No matter the price, the Pittsburgh back should be considered a plug and play each week. I have written that in each of the last handful of iterations of this article and I don’t intend to stop any time soon.

LeSean McCoy, BUF – I loved Shady this past week because of his expected high floor, favorable matchup, and potential grind it out game flow. I hit on all three of those things and also got a little help from blizzard like conditions out in Buffalo. In all, McCoy racked up 156 rushing yards and a game-winning touchdown in overtime – or in other words, 24.6 points on DraftKings… A home run selection.

Affordable Play(s)

Lamar Miller, HOU – This pick blew up in my face, as the 49ers defense once again stepped up and proved me wrong. I expected a very safe minimum of 13 points out of Miller, which at his low price would have more than paid for itself, but instead he struggled to even get to double-digits on DK (8.0). You should feel comfortable knowing that this was my only blunder of the week though.

Alfred Morris, DAL – I’m going to give myself a (barely) passing grade for this pick because Morris still did end up above double-digits and because I wasn’t wrong for loving the matchup… I just picked the wrong guy. While Morris played solidly (85 total yards), it was teammate and backup running back Rod Smith who turned into fantasy gold against this helpless Giants defense. In all, Smith finished with 160 total yards and two touchdowns, to go along with his five receptions, which tallied up to 36.0 DK points.

Bargain Play(s)

Frank Gore, IND – Priced at a measly $3,900 on DK last week, Gore ended up being one of my best value picks, as he racked up 130 rushing yards on a whopping 36 carries… Thank you Buffalo blizzard.

Flyer Play(s)

Giovani Bernard, CIN – I said last week that “(Bernard) has the chance to be the flex flyer of the week – provided Mixon (was) out.”

… Joe Mixon was out, and Bernard ended up being the flex flyer of the week.

As they say in the business – NostraDomUs has spoken! (okay, maybe no one says that, but they will!) 

In all, he racked up 19.0 DK points through 130 total yards on 17 touches (six catches) – far more than worth his near minimum price tag of $3,100. 

** NostraDomUs’ 2017 Running Back Predictions Record (NFL year to date) **

Right: (74) Wrong: (55)

Prophetic Percentage: (57%)