The Beast Has Awoken

I’ll admit it, I wrote off Marshawn Lynch a few weeks ago, saying in a nutshell that his experiment in a Raiders uniform was a flop and that he was washed up as a football player. If you’ve been reading all season long however, then you know that I’m not afraid to call myself out for being wrong – at the bottom of the page I have a running tally of my weekly predictions for Christ’s sake!

So, considering that, here I am, hat in hand, telling you to watch out for Beast Mode.

In three of the last four weeks, Lynch has averaged 21.2 fantasy points, and that is including a recent emergence as a decent pass catching back (seven receptions on eight targets for 69 yards over the same span). In those three games, he’s also averaged over 5.5 yards per carry, has scored four times, and has received an average of 19 carries per game.

As far as the Raiders should be concerned, the season starts now. With four games left to go – two of which are against divisional opponents – expect them to lean heavily on their new ground game identity and not as much on the aerial one that made them appear as pretenders at the beginning of this season. The weather is getting colder and despite other adversity, the Raiders are rounding into shape. Yes they should be getting their receivers back healthy and unsuspended this week, but what has become clear is that the best form of their team is when they are letting Beast Mode lead the way.

Pack Backs Holding Their Own

For the better part of the last decade, the conversation of the Green Bay Packers has begun and ended with Aaron Rodgers. When he broke his collarbone in Week 6 of this season, a massive black cloud suddenly shrouded the entire Wisconsin city in doom and gloom. Expectations were slim to say the least going forward, as most pundits disregarded them from the playoff picture and also from the overall fantasy conversation. Low and behold though, they surprisingly have held their own over the last seven weeks, keeping themselves in most of the six contests, while even winning twice during the span. As it stands now, the Packers are 6-6 and well in the playoff conversation – just in time for a potential Aaron Rodgers return in Week 15.

When reading this, the question I’m sure remains on where the credit should go for this rock solid damage control.

The answer is the running game.

Two rookies, both Jamaal Williams and Aaron Jones, have become the engine that drives this Packers offense, and considering this franchise’s reliance on a shotgun passing game over the last decade; that is a real achievement in the coaching department.

In the first week without Rodgers, another Aaron – Aaron Jones – stepped up and gouged the Saints for 131 yards and a touchdown. The Packers didn’t win that game unfortunately, but they kept it close and gave the city confidence that the world wasn’t over just because Rodgers was injured. To add more adversity in the face of Green Bay however, Aaron Jones was too soon injured, leaving the Packers down and out once again.

It took a couple of weeks, but soon another rookie in Jamaal Williams stepped up and took control of this Green Bay rushing attack. His arrival as a feature back established stability in the offense once again and took pressure off of unproven backup quarterback Brett Hundley. Over the last four weeks as the starter, Williams has averaged over 75 rushing yards per game, while he has gotten into the end zone three times. He has served as a reliable option in the passing game as well; while his mesh point in the Packers newfound read option offense proved to be deadly in their win last week.

Even after racking up 113 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Buccaneers last week, it actually ended up being the return of Aaron Jones and not Jamaal Williams’ hard work that sealed the victory in overtime…

On a first down play, just outside of the red zone, Williams took a handoff and bounced off of some blown back blockers. He redirected his route to an open backside lane and exploded for the 20-yard game-winning touchdown.

The magic that has seemingly touched Lambeau Field since the Kennedy administration did in fact still exist. The most surprising thing of all is that this time it was able to appear even without the presence of their quarterback wizards – Starr, Favre, Rodgers.

Hyperbole and sports romance aside, the fact is that the coaching staff, Brett Hundley, and most importantly the Packers rookie backs did their job – and fantasy owners are better for it. Now it is time for Aaron Rodgers to come back and finish the fight for the playoffs, and ironically it will likely be at the expense of many fantasy owners who have come to rely upon the Packers backs for 20 touches per game. 

Love The Drake

In 1993, Seinfeld gifted us with an unforgettable character (mainly because of the shorthand catchphrases associated with his name) – The Drake. He was nothing more than a mutual friend amongst the core four of Jerry, Elaine, George, and Kramer, but they all felt compelled to have strong feelings about him depending on which way the wind was blowing…

“Love the Drake,” “hate the Drake,” however the gang wanted to phrase it, the feelings on he and his ex-fiancé were never wishy-washy.

Considering that, there must be something in the name because the same couldn’t be truer for Miami Dolphins running back Kenyan Drake.

While at Alabama and entering the draft, my feelings on him were strictly “hate the Drake.” In his four collegiate seasons he was never the lead back and he never seemed to finish a year without some kind of injury. He quietly went through the motions behind otherwise future NFL stars in Eddie Lacy, T.J. Yeldon, and Derrick Henry, yet for some reason the football media still continued to give him some serious hype. Whether deserved the hype or not, based on his perceived talent, his production was always underwhelming to me. Needless to say I was not a fan of his tape coming out of college and was shocked to see him taken ahead of backs like Jordan Howard, Alex Collins, and DeAndre Washington in the 2016 NFL draft.

I felt vindication on my “hate the Drake” stance during his rookie season… Many saw the Dolphins starting running back spot as his for the taking, while I argued tooth and nail with readers about the talent and drive of little known backup Jay Ajayi. The rest was history there, as J-Train rattled off three separate 200+ yard rushing games that season.

Eventually though, like often happened with the loveable Seinfeld cast, my opinions changed on the Drake and it was almost purely circumstantial. This past week, without a consistent passing game, a gassed out defense, and absolutely zero competition in the backfield due to injuries and an exodus of talent, I knew that the Dolphins had nowhere else to turn. I clued you in last week that it was finally time to “love the Drake” and he came through in spades.

My pledge here going forward is that unless they get more help in that backfield or Dan Marino comes out of retirement, it is “love the Drake” till the cows come home. The Dolphins have four more games this season and they face awful rush defenses in each one of them. He may just be a top-10 running back option the rest of the way

NostraDomUs Predicts – Week 13 Recap

Each Wednesday, in addition to this weekly article, I also publish the DFS RB Plays of the Week – an article reserved to PlaybookPro subscribers only. For our purposes here though, in hopes of keeping things how they have been for the past couple of seasons, I will consider those DFS selections as my "NostraDomUs Predicts" selections that I have been providing in this article for the past two years.

So to make things clear – I will make my running back picks in the other article for the upcoming week, and then I will recap the previous week's picks in this article. At the bottom of the page I will give a running season-long tally of my predictive record.

* Week 13 RB Predictions *

Elite Play(s)

Le’Veon Bell, PIT – I almost feel bad to count this towards my “Prophetic Percentage” (see at bottom), as Bell is basically a lock every week for elite production. Nonetheless he once again went off last week and I made some money off of it. His ability to provide consistent production from two different facets of the game (rushing and receiving) continue to keep Bell as the top priced and most valuable back each week. Don’t expect that to change anytime soon.

Leonard Fournette, JAX – I was right about the blowout last week and I was right about the fact that the Jags would turn to Fournette early in hopes of chewing up the clock. While he didn’t play particularly well (2.9 yards per carry), Fournette still racked up 17 points on DraftKings with his 79 total yards and rushing touchdown. At under $8,000 last week, he was worth the price.

Affordable Play(s)

Jordan Howard, CHI – Unfortunately Howard was a big swing and miss last week and the reasons for this I still cannot explain. He and the Bears had an incredibly favorable against the Niners and their terrible rush defense, while they were hosting them at home – a place they have been much better at this season than on the road. In the end, the Bears only possessed the ball for 21 minutes, while backup Tarik Cohen ended up being more involved in the ultimate outcome.

Bargain Play(s)

Kenyan Drake, MIA – My homerun pick of the week was absolutely Kenyan Drake, as he proved me correct with 23 carries and a touchdown on 120 rushing yards against the Broncos. More than believing in the player though were his circumstances. By that I mean that the fact that the entire backfield was Drake’s, without competition, gave me comfort that there would be more than enough touches going his way to make his sub-$5,000 price tag worthwhile. This is the type of value I try to identify each week.

Alex Collins, BAL – A close second place last week for “homerun pick of the week” was Collins, as he shredded the Lions defense to the tune of 98 total yards and two touchdowns. Unfortunately, his status for Week 14 is cloudy at the moment, as he dealing with some serious migraines. Check back in later in the week to see if he will play on Sunday night against the Steelers and their tough rush defense.

Isaiah Crowell, CLE – At over 4.1 yards per carry last week, Crowell clearly could have done some DraftKings damage if provided with more touches. Unfortunately the Browns inexplicably abandoned the run and subsequently fell to the Chargers in Week 13.

Flyer Play(s)

LeGarrette Blount, PHI – Like the Eagles entire team in Week 13, Blount ended up being a complete bust. In total, he finished with only eight carries for 26 yards, while he was outpaced in the Philly backfield by a large margin behind both Corey Clement and Jay Ajayi. Ultimately, the pace of the game changed to the point that using Blount wasn’t viable. When you go down early, you need to use pass catching and pass blocking backs. Blount is useless in those situations.

Frank Gore, IND – Gore actually ran the ball well last week, but he didn’t see enough opportunities, wasn’t targeted in the pass game, and didn’t get into the end zone. His 61 rushing yards and 4.7 yards per carry unfortunately only netted him 6.1 points on DraftKings.

** NostraDomUs’ 2017 Running Back Predictions Record (NFL year to date) **

Right: (69) Wrong:(54)

Prophetic Percentage: (56%)