And Down The Stretch He Comes

As I’m sure you all know, in the beginning and end of each season I preview and make my final selections for my made up fantasy running back awards. This season has been such a difficult one considering injuries and suspensions, so as of now – down the home stretch of the season – I still see no clear cut frontrunner for the Emmitt Smith Golden Football or in other words, my fantasy running back MVP.

Making a late charge into the conversation however is Saints rookie Alvin Kamara, who – HOT TAKE ALERT – is currently the best back in football.

When you break down the game of football to it’s core, it’s about getting into the end zone. Right now, Kamara is doing that better than any other running back in the league and he is doing it on so many fewer touches than the considered “elite.”

He’s currently second in the league in total touchdowns, only to Todd Gurley (9 to 11 respectively), despite the fact that Gurley has seen a whopping 117 more total touches, 28 more red zone carries, and 10 more goal line carries. To put it plainly, Kamara is scoring both on the field and in fantasy leagues at a historic pace. He he’s leading the league by far in per touch touchdown rate (1 TD per 14.5 touches!), while he’s also racking up 1.6 fantasy points per every touch he sees.

Beyond touchdowns, Kamara is averaging an astounding 7.1 yards per carry – a number not seen since the mid 1930’s (minimum 100 carries). He’s fourth in the league in breakaway percentage, while he’s leading the entire league in elusive rating (min. 75 carries, according to Pro Football Focus).

Having said all of this, I have still yet to mention his prowess as a receiver... Kamara is also on pace for 80 catches – third amongst running backs – and nearly 800 receiving yards – first amongst running backs. His four receiving touchdowns put him in a tie for first amongst NFL running backs this season as well.

Simply put, this guy is a stud and by all accounts is only being held back by his limited amount of touches per game. The Saints being a smart organization, they likely have the same information I just laid out in front of you. Considering they are in a dogfight for a top playoff seed, chances are that they will start to ride the young rookie even more down the stretch. If they do that I may finally have an answer to my Emmitt Smith Golden Football dilemma – Alvin Kamara will be the fantasy running back MVP in 2017.

It’s A Two-Horse Race

When it comes to backfields, I historically have given Bill Belichick a lot of crap. I discuss this all the time with Brett Talley on our weekly NFL positional rankings podcast, but I do it with good reason, as rarely over coach Belichick’sesteemed career has he given fantasy owners any type of indication on which back he is going to feed each week. Sure he had Corey Dillon for a stretch in the mid 2000’s and last year he rode LeGarrette Blount in the red zone a bunch, but those are outlier instances rather than his historical norm. Look, I’m not going to question the guy’s coaching methods, as he is the GOAT after all, but it would be nice if he could more often throw fantasy owners a bone rather than consistently shrouding his backfields in mystery.

I think he’s been listening…

Over the last few weeks, the Patriots backfield has sort of worked itself out into what most would call a “split committee” but what I instead am calling a two-horse race. Basically we have Rex Burkhead – a guy who they paid in the offseason and are insisting on using heavily – and Dion Lewis – the more efficient of the two. Seemingly evaporated from the mix are last year’s Super Bowl hero – James White  – and this year’s Week 1 hero (three touchdowns) – Mike Gillislee. It appears now with the two remaining backs, coach Belichick is going to ride the hot hand, while still slightly favoring Burkhead more in the red zone. For example, last week Burkhead struggled to effectively produce in terms of yards per attempt on his ample touches, but still managed to score twice in the red zone. Once it was clear however, that he wasn’t going to be too efficient in that game, the pivot was made to Dion Lewis who churned out 112 rushing yards on his equal number of touches in comparison to Burkhead. See what I mean? – A two-horse race to the finish each week. From the way it looks, the most effective back will win out down the stretch each week instead of a typical committee approach that carves out specific roles and scenarios for each involved back. Considering this, my preference going forward is clearly Lewis, as he has averaged more yards per game (100.5) and yards per touch (6.7) over these last two weeks of near even split. Having said that, if last week is any kind of indication of the future, Burkhead may still get his vulture TD’s early on before his game long ineffectiveness has been exposed.

While definitely less than an ideal scenario in any fantasy format, if this is the compromise that we need to make with coach Belichick, I’ll take it.

Longshot

For this week’s edition, this column may seem a bit out of place, especially considering he’s coming off of game in which he didn’t exactly open any eyes, but having said all of that, can we please take a second and give some props to Carlos Hyde for the season that he is having?

The little spoken of Hyde entered the season up against a new front office and offensive system. He also was dealt a new coaching staff that right out of the gates said that his starting job was by no means secure. A rookie – Joe Williams – was rumored to be ahead of the proven Hyde coming out of camp, and while the job defaulted back to him after Williams’ unfortunate season-ending injury, quickly another no name back – Matt Breida – was right on Hyde’s heels. For whatever reason, Hyde couldn’t get the benefit of the doubt from anyone in the 49ers organization, despite the fact that he has averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in every season of his four-year career.

The 49ers season started and has remained in turmoil since the outset. The defense has been terrible, the passing game anemic, and the offensive line non-existent. Despite all of this and the fact that the organization seemingly doesn’t want him, still the one constant for this team this season has been Hyde.

You wouldn’t know it unless you checked, but Hyde is currently ninth in fantasy points amongst running backs this season, averaging 15.1 points per contest (PPR). That puts him in front of names such as Lamar Miller, Jordan Howard, DeMarco Murray, and Devonta Freeman – all players considered far ahead of him in the preseason fantasy rankings – while it puts him right on the heels of supposed “elite” backs in LeSean McCoy, Melvin Gordon, and Mark Ingram.

While he has always shown talent as an NFL back, a couple of attributes have always eluded Hyde, and his critics hadn’t been shy about pointing them out entering this season.

For one, he could never stay healthy for a full season, as he has missed at least two games in every season of his four-year career.

This season however, Hyde has played in all of the 49ers 11 games, proving that maybe he is capable of taking the expected pounding of a featured NFL back.

The second flaw in Hyde’s game has been as a pass catcher out of the backfield.

In 2017 however, Hyde has already caught a career high 49 passes – nearly double what he had all of last season and only one away from the amount he has caught in his entire career combined. The 49 receptions mark ranks him 4th in the league amongst qualified backs, a number fantasy owners and 49ers fans/staff only could have dreamed of entering the year.

Through a season in which his team is likely to finish last in the NFC, his coaching staff and general manager were doubting him, and his less experienced teammates were out for his job, Hyde is somehow still on pace for the best year of his career. He is set to play in all 16 games for the first time, while he is also likely to do the same in terms of breaking the 1,000-yard rushing barrier. He has shattered his previous receiving marks, and most importantly has found a way to block out the critics. Sure no one is giving Carlos Hyde any credit, but it doesn’t seem to be affecting him. As he keeps on soldiering on throughout the rest of 2017, keep him in mind when making your fantasy lineups. You can do a lot worse than a quiet and consistent 15 points each week.

 

– As a side note, thank you for bearing with all of my horse racing titles. For no particular reason they all seemed to fit this week, so I decided to stick with the theme. –

NostraDomUs Predicts – Week 12 Recap

Each Wednesday, in addition to this weekly article, I also publish theDFS RB Plays of the Week – an article reserved to PlaybookPro subscribers only. For our purposes here though, in hopes of keeping things how they have been for the past couple of seasons, I will consider those DFS selections as my "NostraDomUs Predicts" selections that I have been providing in this article for the past two years.

So to make things clear – I will make my running back picks in the other article for the upcoming week, and then I will recap the previous week's picks in this article. At the bottom of the page I will give a running season-long tally of my predictive record.

* Week 12 RB Predictions *

Thanksgiving Special

SamajePerine, WAS – As expected, Perine had himself a day against the struggling Giants, and while he didn’t get into the end zone, his 130 total yards on 27 touches benefited him a more than reasonable 16 fantasy points for the Thursday Thanksgiving slate.

Alfred Morris, DAL – I expected Alfred Morris to back up his good outing against the Eagles despite a blowout with another solid effort against the Chargers. I was wrong, and this was even despite the fact that the Chargers were ranked dead last in the league against the run headed into last Thursday’s matchup. While the game flow went the way that I expected – in that the Cowboys would be blown out – instead of Morris continuing to see the work like he did in the Cowboys previous blowout, Rod Smith took over the Dallas backfield with 11 touches, 48 yards, and a touchdown.

Melvin Gordon, LAC – While I believed that Gordon would be double-digit productive, I made the argument that he likely wouldn’t be worth his max price tag for the Thursday Thanksgiving slate of games. This turned out to be the case, as Gordon only offered 88 total yards and zero touchdowns despite his over $8,000 price tag on DraftKings. At half the price last week, Austin Ekeler provided almost identical production to Gordon, making him a more than viable flex play in the wonky three game slate. A great call by NostraDomUs here.

Latavius Murray, MIN – After watching what Jordan Howard did to the Lions defense just in the week prior, Murray instantly became the Vikings back that I liked on Thanksgiving the most, as his size and power running style more matches Howard’s than the finesse and quickness of McKinnon. This prediction came to fruition as Murray finished with 15 fantasy points and McKinnon finished with just over six.

Orleans Darkwa, NYG – The second of only two whiffs for NostraDomUs on turkey day was Darkwa, as he struggled to get much of anything going against the Redskins on Thursday night. Despite all of the stats and recent form pointing in Darkwa’s direction, he just couldn’t move the football effectively. You can’t get them all right I guess.

Sunday/Monday Elite Play(s)

Le’Veon Bell, PIT – I mentioned specifically that I loved Bell this week because the Packers linebackers are inept in coverage. I expected a high dose of pass targets in the running back’s direction, and I was proven nothing but correct, as Bell saw 14 targets and caught 12 of them for 88 yards. He also chipped in on the ground with 20 carries for 95 rushing yards, good enough for a 4.8 yards per carry average; his best average since Week 6. Overall, Bell finished as the third most productive fantasy back of the week, with 29.3 DraftKings points.

LeSean McCoy, BUF – Despite the favorable matchup, McCoy only managed 11.9 DK points this past week. Posted at an elite price of $8,500, that type of production is not going to get the job done – plain and simple. On the bright side, fantasy owners should be encouraged to see that McCoy still ended up with a hefty workload of 26 touches, despite his overall ineffectiveness.

Mark Ingram, NO – Ingram’s struggles last week were directly linked to game flow, as once the Saints went down early, it became the Alvin Kamara show. I expected 15 points from the former Heisman winner and instead he came up 10 points shy – by far his worst outing of the season.

Kareem Hunt, KC – In nearly a clean sweep of losses for me in the “elite” category this past week, Hunt too disappointed fantasy owners to the tune of just 3.6 DK points against the Bills horrendous rush defense. After the countless chances that I have given the rookie back in this second half of the season, I feel comfortable punting on him going forward.

Sunday/Monday Affordable Play(s)

Alvin Kamara, NO – Kamara was my pick for play of the week and he didn’t disappoint, as he posted nearly 40 DK points, which was 10 more than any other back last week. As stated above, game flow had a lot to do with his added reps, but in reality his production still was incredibly impressive on just 11 total touches. He right now is playing as the best running back in football and is posting some of the most efficient fantasy numbers I have ever seen on a per touch basis.

Sunday/Monday Bargain Play(s)

Danny Woodhead, BAL – While he out-touched Buck Allen eight to six this past Monday night, Allen ended up scoring an impressive touchdown, which gave him the fantasy edge over Woodhead for the week. At a shade under 10 DK points, Woodhead just missed out serving as a viable flex option.

Dion Lewis, NE – Lewis had himself one hell of a game, posting 112 rushing yards on 15 carries (7.5 yards per carry!), and while he proved me correct by finishing as an excellent GPP play, I couldn’t help but cringe watching Rex Burkhead steal his touchdown opportunities, despite posting incredibly inefficient per touch numbers.

Derrick Henry, TEN – Like Lewis, Henry finished with solid fantasy numbers, but too had his touchdown vulture by another back. Despite the fact that Henry did all of the effective legwork in the contest (89 total yards on 15 touches), DeMarco Murray benefited on a late game touchdown run, despite only averaging 0.8 yards per carry for the game. All in all though, Henry finished with 10 DK points and was priced reasonably under $5,000.

Sunday/Monday Flyer Play(s)

Devontae Booker, DEN – The Booker pick was looking oh so good on Sunday afternoon, as he hauled in what looked to be a touchdown against the Raiders, but unfortunately the call was overturned. That could have changed his outing from 5.3 points on DK to nearly 15… How indicative of the Broncos entire season thus far.

** NostraDomUs’ 2017 Running Back Predictions Record (NFL year to date) **

Right:(65) Wrong:(50)

Prophetic Percentage: (57%)