NFC East – Running Back Jumble

While this article has always remained a round up of the entire league’s week in review at the running back position, I felt it imperative this week to focus on a single division because of the complete chaos going on in each team’s backfield…

What the hell is happening in the NFC East?

While it is pretty clear that the Eagles are great, the Cowboys are a sinking ship, the Redskins are the scrappy injured bunch, and that the Giants absolutely suck, each team is also further defined by their individually tumultuous backfield situations.

In Philly, while you have a soaring Eagles bunch, you also have a backfield in complete fantasy disarray. Sure the addition of Jay Ajayi has only made them more dangerous, it has also hamstrung fantasy owners by further muddling an already crowded backfield. Ajayi went from a first round pick to a guy who has seen fewer than 10 touches in each of his first two weeks as an Eagle. Incumbent starter Legarrette Blount has seen the lion’s share of the work, while little known Corey Clement has scored five total touchdowns over the last three weeks. Against the Cowboys last week, seemingly out of nowhere, Kenjon Barner stunned fantasy owners by scoring a touchdown on one of his mere two touches. To top it all off, just when Ajayi seemed to save fantasy owners with a 80-yard touchdown scamper, he was caught from behind, cutting the run off at 71 yards with no touchdown. The good news for Ajayi owners is that in his two weeks as an Eagle, and with very limited touches, he has made a mountain of production with all things being considered. So far in Philly, J-Train has racked up 168 rushing yards on a mere 15 carries; good enough for over 11 yards per carry, while he has gotten into the end zone once. Expectations are that he will continue to see more and more work each week, but the presence of Blount as a down the stretch closer and Clement as an explosive TD vulture more than frighten me away from calling Ajayi a must own down the stretch of this season.

Out in Dallas, their storyline has been beaten to death. Zeke is suspended, whether you like it or not, and the team hasn’t been the same since. Having said that, in the two weeks so far without their star running back, the backups in the backfield have more or less picked up the pieces. Two weeks ago Rod Smith showed some nice burst as a receiver out of the backfield, while this past week Alfred Morris racked up 91 rushing yards on 17 carries against the Eagles and their number top-ranked rush defense. The problem here for fantasy owners is the inconsistency in terms of who the Cowboys are going to favor on a weekly basis. While Morris was the unquestioned bell cow this past week, just a week prior the suspected third stringer in Rod Smith paced the Cowboys backfield with 38 offensive snaps. For this upcoming Thursday in the Cowboys Thanksgiving matchup with the Chargers and their last ranked rush defense, the expectation is that Morris will be ridden hard once again, however if this game gets away from Dallas early once again due to the Chargers ferocious pass rush, Smith may sneak into flex territory. A wrench that can be thrown into all of this going forward is if Dallas ever decides to suit up Darren McFadden, who is a blend of both backs. He can run and play on third downs. If McFadden ever gets into a groove, he may be the only Cowboys running back with fantasy value until Zeke comes back. What a mess…

Of all of the NFC East backfields, the Redskins may have the most obvious, yet most unfortunate one to dissect. For most of this season so far, the Redskins had a nice thing going – incumbent starter “Fat” Rob Kelley would handle the early down and goal line duties, while Chris Thompson would serve as the explosive PPR weapon and change-of pace-back. Sprinkled in there every now and again was rookie Samaje Perine, who’s hulking size and fresh legs could serve Kelley well as a spell when he needed a breather. Two weeks ago however, Kelley’s season abruptly ended with a combo injury to his ankle and MCL. Even through this though, the Redskins felt comfortable entering last week’s game with Perine as the early down guy and Thompson remaining in his normal role, just at a higher volume of reps and touches. In another strike of awful luck however, Thompson’s season too ended this past Sunday, as he broke his right fibula in the third quarter against the Saints.

Now the backfield belongs to the rookie Perine.

And while this seems like a daunting task, he did show last week with his 117 rushing yards and rushing touchdown that he may just have what it takes. Off the streets, the Redskins added running back Byron Marshall, who will look to catch some passes – an area of the game that Perine is not exactly proficient in.

Finally, I give you the New York Giants, and while they pretty clearly have Orleans Darkwa as their main back going forward, he is suspiciously on the injury report this week. Considering they have a quick turnaround for their game against the Redskins on Thanksgiving this upcoming Thursday, fantasy owners better be prepared with a handcuff (Wayne Gallman?). Expect an update on this prior to kickoff…

NostraDomUs Predicts – Week 11 Recap

Each Wednesday, in addition to this weekly article, I also publish theDFS RB Plays of the Week – an article reserved to PlaybookPro subscribers only. For our purposes here though, in hopes of keeping things how they have been for the past couple of seasons, I will consider those DFS selections as my "NostraDomUs Predicts" selections that I have been providing in this article for the past two years.

So to make things clear – I will make my running back picks in the other article for the upcoming week, and then I will recap the previous week's picks in this article. At the bottom of the page I will give a running season-long tally of my predictive record.

* Week 11 RB Predictions *

Elite Play(s)

Kareem Hunt, KC – As the week wore on and the weather report in East Rutherford, NJ continued to worsen in terms of cold weather and swirling winds, my belief in Hunt for Week 11 was only strengthened. Simple logic would tell you that a team on the road, facing bad weather conditions, and with a great young running back, would commit to running the football heavily. Instead, not only were the Chiefs stunned by the 1-8 Giants by being held out of the end zone for a full four quarters and an overtime period, but also they inexplicably attempted to throw the ball 41 times against the league’s 30th ranked rush defense. Despite the fact that he has been struggling for more than a month now, Hunt really never had a chance in this type of game flow. It’s a miracle really that he still even managed to give DraftKings players a double-digit point total .

Affordable Play(s)

Melvin Gordon, LAC – Gordon didn’t light the world on fire, but he did score a touchdown and he did manage 80 rushing yards against the Bills this past weekend. Even without a catch on the stat sheet, he remained fantasy relevant in all DFS formats for the week. As a sidenote, I was correct that his teammate Austin Ekeler would hold some flex DFS value as well, as he posted 58 total yards and a touchdown.

Alvin Kamara, NO – Boy was I spot on about this one… Kamara finished as the top fantasy back for Week 11, while his actual final totals (8 carries, 42 yards, 6 receptions, 9 targets, 74 yards, 1 TD) came eerily close to the projected totals (11 carries, 61 yards, 6 receptions, 8 targets, 44 yards, 1 TD) by your’s truly -- NostraDomUs. Picks like this are why they keep me around here at Fantasy Alarm.  

Bargain Play(s)

Chris Thompson, WAS – This pick was certainly compromised by Thompson’s unfortunate season-ending injury that he suffered in the third quarter of this past Sunday’s matchup. For the purposes of DFS players however, the entire day wasn’t lost, as Thompson managed to get into the end zone prior to suffering the debilitating injury .

Kenyan Drake, MIA – Neither Dolphins back got into the end zone this past Sunday, and neither played particularly well, however Damien Williams was the one who racked up a 69 yard scamper to give him 78 total rushing yards for the day. Once he broke that long run and gained 24 yards on another reception, Drake’s shot at any significant work went by the wayside. This was an upside pick that never came to fruition.

Latavius Murray, MIN – From a bust DFS pick to a home run... Murray served as the fifth best running back option this past Sunday, as he racked up 95 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Rams. An interesting note is that despite the Vikings “control the clock” game flow, Jerick McKinnon still out-touched Murray by a margin of 19-16. The real difference is that Murray got all of the work inside the red zone and delivered on those opportunities. This seems like a sustainable split going forward, with separate, yet fantasy relevant roles defined between the two.

Flyer Play(s)

Samaje Perine, WAS – With Rob Kelley on the IR, I guaranteed a 15-touch minimum from Perine this past Sunday. He delivered with 24. I expected at least one touchdown and he once again answered the call. His 126 total yards were a cherry on top, considering his mere $3,800 DraftKings price tag, but to say the least, Perine was the best flex flyer of the week.

Rod Smith, DAL – Starting Smith certainly was a stretch this week, but at his price tag, he was worth a look in stars and scrubs GPP lineups. Unfortunately, the game flow for the Cowboys and Eagles game was much to close in the first half for the receiving back to make an impact, plus Alfred Morris’ overall effectiveness (17 carries, 91 rushing yards) rendered Smith irrelevant.

** NostraDomUs’ 2017 Running Back Predictions Record (NFL year to date) **

Right:(55) Wrong:(43)

Prophetic Percentage: (56%)