Who the Heck is Austin Ekeler?

According to Wikipedia, The 22-year old back is an undrafted rookie out of a college I’ve never heard of, Western State – a Colorado based university whose student body is so small (aprox. 2,500) that some US high schools may rival its size. Like the stature of his college, Ekeler measures in at a pint sized 5-foot-9, 195 lbs, and while he posted some impressive stats over the last four years at the aforementioned Western State, he largely went unnoticed by NFL scouts while playing against Division II competition. Having said all of this, seemingly against all odds, Ekeler is now making fantasy football headlines as the guy who is pushing Melvin Gordon for touches. While this storyline culminated last week with Ekeler’s 15 touches, 119 total yards, and two receiving touchdowns, this was not the first sign of life from the undrafted rookie. Entering the game he had also registered two other touchdowns on the season, planting the seeds for the coaching staff to realize that he may be more efficient with his touches than starter Melvin Gordon – one of the league’s more inefficient high-volume backs. As it stands now, Gordon’s arrow is trending in the wrong direction, while Ekeler’s is clearly shooting up. Much more of this dynamic will be understood in the Chargers Week 11 matchup with the Bills who have been absolutely shredded on the ground in each of the last two weeks. Definitely something to keep an eye on going forward.

Saints Go Marching In… To The End Zone

What a difference a year makes... If you told me in 2016 that by 2017 the Giants would be the worst team in football, that we would have a reality TV star as President, and that Floyd Mayweather would come out of retirement to fight a UFC Champion, I wouldn’t have believed you, but I also wouldn’t have called you crazy. However if you tried to tell me that the Saints would have the NFL’s most explosive rushing attack and one of the league’s most impenetrable defenses, I would have personally checked you into an insane asylum. Keep in mind that this is the same franchise that for the last decade has featured a historically awful defense and a Hall of Fame quarterback calling the signals on offense. Just two years ago, Drew Brees threw for an NFL record seven touchdowns in a single game for crying out loud! While they haven’t featured a top-10 rush offense since “The King’s Speech” won the Oscar for Best Picture.

Despite how unbelievable all of these things may have seemed just a year ago, this is the reality of 2017.

Living in this new reality, it is time to analyze and digest. Rather than trying to break down all of the things that I mentioned above – something that would take up the space of several novels – we will stick to the Saints here for the purposes of just this article…

So suddenly the Saints run the football often, and do it really well.

Just this past Sunday the Saints scored a whopping six touchdowns on the ground against the Bills in Buffalo, a feat that hasn’t been accomplished since 2004 when Priest Holmes and Derrick Blaylock combined for eight against the Atlanta Falcons. This past Sunday featured a bigger host of scorers, including three from Mark Ingram, one from Alvin Kamara, one from little known Trey Edmunds, and most surprisingly of all, one from Drew Brees. Another shocking stat to come from all of this is that for the second time in three weeks, Brees finished with zero touchdown passes. Drew Brees hasn’t had a season with two or more games without a touchdown pass since 2007 – or for those who need perspective… a full decade ago!

 

The Saints identity has shifted diametrically, and if it isn’t clear to you now then you are very oblivious, stubborn, or both. Fantasy owners need to take notice, if they haven’t already, and they need to adjust accordingly. As crazy as it sounds, the Saints are a team now built on defense and ball control. The days of Drew Brees carrying this squad like a cross on his shoulder each Sunday are gone. He has a supporting cast now and they are beginning to take over. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have solidified themselves both as fantasy viable week in and week out, while Drew Brees has turned into a QB1 matchup play at best on a weekly basis… What a strange year 2017 has been.

Cowboys Backfield Update

Considering the potential of this backfield even without Ezekeil Elliott, for the next five weeks I’m going to give an update on the status of the touch volume vacuum in Dallas…

Unless you live under a rock, by now you know that the Cowboys first week without Zeke didn’t go so well. Much of that also had to do with the fact that they were missing All-Pro’s Sean Lee and Tyron Smith, but Zeke’s absence was too certainly felt. Below are the final backfield tallies from the Cowboys Week 10 matchup against the Falcons, featuring a few surprises to some, but none likely to my readers because luckily I did a better job than most did in preparing you for the lesser known Rod Smith…

Alfred Morris led the way on the ground with 11 carries for 53 yards, while Rod Smith finished with three carries for 14 yards, and Darren McFadden disappointed with just one carry for -2 yards. Smith finished as the only Cowboys back with a reception, as he racked up four of them on six targets for 15 yards. To many, the most surprising outcome of all here was that Smith ended up pacing the Cowboys backfield, in terms of reps, by a long shot, as he was on the field for 38 offensive snaps – or 60% of the time – while Morris saw just 22 snaps – 35% – and McFadden just one snap – 2%.

If there is anything to take away here, it’s that the Cowboys trust Rod Smith more than many people thought. Because I’m an attentive Cowboys fan and dedicated sports analyst, I was able to tell you that a week in advance… You're welcome.

Beyond that though, it is pretty clear that this is the type of rotation that will be en vogue for Dallas in games in which they need to abandon the run. Alfred Morris is no use in any pass package, while Smith seems to be in better football shape right now than Darren McFadden, who had been inactive for every game so far this season prior to last week.

So what should that tell you for next week? Well, considering the Cowboys are taking on the Philadelphia Eagles and their number one ranked rush defense, it is likely that they will be in a similar situation to last week. Rod Smith may just be a sneaky flex option this week, while Alfred Morris seems like a starting running back to punt on.

NostraDomUs Predicts – Week 10 Recap

Each Wednesday, in addition to this weekly article, I also publish the DFS RB Plays of the Week – an article reserved to PlaybookPro subscribers only. For our purposes here though, in hopes of keeping things how they have been for the past couple of seasons, I will consider those DFS selections as my "NostraDomUs Predicts" selections that I have been providing in this article for the past two years.

So to make things clear – I will make my running back picks in the other article for the upcoming week, and then I will recap the previous week's picks in this article. At the bottom of the page I will give a running season-long tally of my predictive record.

* Week 10 RB Predictions *

Elite Plays

Le’Veon Bell, PIT – Look, he didn’t end up as the top ranked running back for the week like I expected, and considering his matchup against the Colts and their horrendous rush defense, his 16.2 DK points were a bit disappointing, however the fact of the matter is that he still proved to be DFS viable for the week. An added bonus on my part here is that he did eclipse the 30 touch mark like I predicted. In all, Bell finished with 31 touches and 112 total yards.

Leonard Fournette, JAX – This was just an utter swing and miss. One that I won’t feel too bad about though considering Fournette was one of the few supposed locks of the week amongst all fantasy experts. He just couldn’t get anything going against the league’s worst run defense in the first half, while he was benched for most of the second half while the Jags were trying to make a comeback through their aerial attack. Side note here: Fournette’s arrow may be pointing in the wrong direction considering this dud and his “inactive” last week for violating team rules.

Affordable Plays

Melvin Gordon, LAC – Gordon really struggled against the Jags stout defense last week, but what was more alarming than his lack of production was his lack of touch domination out of the Chargers backfield. As I explained in one of the sections above, the arrival of Austin Eckler is something that every fantasy owner needs to take into account now and going forward. My evaluation of Gordon has always been that he’s first and foremost overrated, but a player with talent and explosion when given a heavy dose of touches. He’s capable of the big play, but overall an inefficient player based on a per touch basis. Without an absolute touch domination like he has been seeing out of the Chargers backfield for the last two years, there is a chance that his big fantasy days become fewer and far between.

Alvin Kamara, NO – Proud to say that not only did I call that Kamara would be a great play this past week, but I also mentioned that both he and Mark Ingram would be fantasy viable against a suddenly terrible Bills rush defense. Happy to finally be on the board here too, as this week was an uncharacteristically off one for NostraDomUs.

Jordan Howard, CHI – This is what happens when John Fox deviates from his plan… He’s been letting Jordan Howard pound the rock of late, while limiting his rookie quarterback’s attempts. A recipe that has given the Bears two wins in their last three games prior to this past Sunday. Then, in a game that the Bears should have definitely won, he turns his quarterback loose and forgets about his workhorse running back. The Bears ended up losing to the Aaron Rodgers-less Packers this past Sunday and the deviation from the game plan is the number one culprit. In all, Howard finished with 15 carries for 54 yards.

Bargain Play(s)

Orleans Darkwa, NYG – This past Sunday, Darkwa gave us 70 rushing yards on 14 carries (5.0 yards per carry) and kicked in 18 receiving yards on two catches – in other words, 12.8 DraftKings points. While his potential in this game against an awful 49ers rush defense was much higher, he gave fantasy owners exactly what they needed out of a sub-$4,000 flex option.

Flyer Play(s)

Thomas Rawls, SEA – In yet another week that I gave this Seattle backfield the benefit of the doubt, they yet again burned us. Rawls – despite being given the starting nod against the Cardinals this past week – offered a mere 5.9 points on DraftKings. Despite his lowly $3,400 price tag on DraftKings, he still couldn’t return fantasy owners any sort of positive value. For this I am sorry.

** NostraDomUs’ 2017 Running Back Predictions Record (NFL year to date) **

Right: (51) Wrong: (39)

Prophetic Percentage: (57%)