Running Out of Gas?

In my three years of writing this article, I cannot remember a more underwhelming week of rushing performances. Sure there were several backs who posted big fantasy days, but in terms of purely running the football, I was disappointed. Without the capabilities to travel back far enough in NFL history, I’m going to take a stab and say that having just one running back (Adrian Peterson, 159 yards) eclipse triple-digits in rushing yards league-wide is not a common occurrence on a weekly basis. For now, I’m going to chalk it up to last week’s loaded bye week schedule, but if we see another substandard collective performance in Week 10, we may have a problem on our hands…

Back in the New York Groove

One team that didn’t get the memo to struggle on the ground last week was the New York Jets, as they pounded the Bills and their then-top-five ranked rush defense into submission this past Thursday night. As a whole, the Jets finished with 194 rushing yards and three touchdowns, while they featured two backs that eclipsed the 70-yard barrier.

While much of the storyline so far during this surprise season for the Jets has been about the play of 38-year old, journeyman, quarterback Josh McCown, the real engine that makes this offense run is their effective ground game. As it stands right now, the Jets are set to get three backs over the 400 yard rushing barrier for the season, while seemingly from the grave, Matt Forte has regained fantasy purpose. Without getting too overdramatic, it appears that the “Ground and Pound” Jets have made a comeback, and provided the defense and Josh McCown continue to hold up their ends of the bargain, these G&P Jets don’t appear to be going away anytime soon.  

The Dream is Dead: Beast Mode in the Bay

His season high in touches came in Week 1 with 18, while he has had three separate games in which he has seen fewer than 10. He’s averaging just 3.8 yards per carry, and his offensive line was just accused of quitting on their quarterback. Congrats to Marshawn Lynch for getting into the end zone twice last week, but let’s not make it something that it's not. This was no coming out party for the veteran back, but rather an anomaly.

It is no secret that Lynch is a momentum runner. By that I mean that he’s a guy who gets better as the game goes on, as he feeds off of rhythm and a heavy dose of touches. This was his game in Seattle, as he always operated with a lead and behind a good defense that got him the ball back in game-icing situations.

Make no mistake, this Raiders team is not the 2014 Seattle Seahawks.

They are ranked 28th in the league in total defense, while their offense is built entirely around their young quarterback and star wide receivers. Typically, towards the end of games – when Lynch historically does his best work – the Raiders instead are doing their best to either come back from a deficit or keep up in a shootout.

While the veteran back may be a nice presence for the Raiders locker room and for offensive identity appearances, his fit in what they do best and his role as a starting fantasy running back leave more questions than answers.

His touches are limited, seemingly on purpose due to age and mileage, to below 15 per game, but even if it wasn’t on purpose, the Raiders play style this season is not conducive to giving the ball to their running back as often as other teams do.

The “Beast Mode” persona is predicated on seeing the ball a lot and grinding out yards and touchdowns. Understanding that and understanding that the Raiders aren’t built to give him the ball that often would make it clear that the Raiders do not have Beast Mode. They instead have an aging running back who can get into the end zone every now and then.

We are through half of a season now, and it has become clear… The Beast Mode dream is dead. Most ironically of all though is that it became most clear after his best performance of the season.

Law & Order – Z-E-K-E

I know we are all sick of this never-ending saga, but the fact of the matter is that Elliott is one of the most fantasy relevant players in the game today. Having said that, I would be remiss if I didn’t mention arguably the league’s best and most important fantasy running back in my own running back article…

This Thursday, at 2:00 PM EST, a three-judge panel from the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New York will make a ruling on whether or not Zeke should be granted an emergency injunction that would allow him to keep playing while his case continues its warped tour throughout the justice system. As it stands, this is expected to be Elliott’s last line of defense, because if he loses, there is almost a zero percent chance that he can successfully appeal any further. If he wins, he will likely finish out the season without suspension. As this article is posted on Wednesday, please refer back on Thursday for an update and immediate reaction.

THURSDAY UPDATE (11/09/17): Elliott's injuction request has been denied. His suspension is reinstated immediately. More analysis and reaction coming soon...

Analysis & Reaction: I know I've said it several times before, but this time it feels more true than ever -- this is the end of the line for Zeke. Having said that however, I would be remiss to fail to mention that he still does have a couple of hail mary heaves left in him; and what would this case be without a few more twists and turns?

First and foremost, Zeke can appeal to this same 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, but this time in hopes of an "en banc" hearing, which would have all of the circuit's judges involved. This is highly unlikely considering there is no precedent for this type of hearing after a single injuction request has been shut down twice within the same circuit.

Elliott's last ditch plea would be to the U.S. Supreme Court. This is an even more unlikely outcome however, as the Supreme Court has way more pressing matters at hand. Like the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, there is also no precedent for the SCOTUS hearing an injuction request in such an immediate timeframe.

To put in the simplest of terms, Elliott is out until further notice. Most likely he will serve all six games consecutively from here on out because he has reached the end of the line in terms of injuction requests. Going forward, Elliott will have his appeals hearing settled in early December. Expectations are that his appeal will be denied because of the Tom Brady precedent and because of how quickly the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals shut down his injuction request.

Alfred Morris is the leader in the clubhouse to vacuum up his leftover workload, however Darren McFadden is the more complete back to handle the job. In my opinion, Rod Smith is the younger and more explosive option that the Cowboys should consider, plus he does excellent work on special teams as well. Smith is an option to consider in deeper leagues going forward.

NostraDomUs Predicts – Week 9 Recap

Each Wednesday, in addition to this weekly article, I also publish the DFS RB Plays of the Week – an article reserved to PlaybookPro subscribers only. For our purposes here though, in hopes of keeping things how they have been for the past couple of seasons, I will consider those DFS selections as my "NostraDomUs Predicts" selections that I have been providing in this article for the past two years.

So to make things clear – I will make my running back picks in the other article for the upcoming week, and then I will recap the previous week's picks in this article. At the bottom of the page I will give a running season-long tally of my predictive record.

* Week 9 RB Predictions *

Elite Plays

LeSean McCoy, BUF – Not a great start to say the least, as my favorite play of the week finished with just a measly 2.5 points on DraftKings. While the matchup against the Jets and their near last ranked rush defense should have proven to be a great one for the Bills and their run heavy attack, a different Jets team showed up this past Thursday night. They were flying all over the field, while it looked like the Bills didn’t even get off the bus. Rather than considering this an indictment on McCoy however, consider this more of an outlier. He should have plenty of favorable matchups going forward, which is why I will continue to use him in DFS.

Leonard Fournette, JAX – This one was a real bummer because had he not violated team rules, I fully expected that Fournette would have shredded this Bengals defense. As a team the Jags finished with 149 rushing yards in an easy win, which makes the Fournette benching all the more frustrating. He’ll be back next week though in a favorable matchup against the Chargers, who are allowing 4.6 yards per carry to opposing running backs.

Todd Gurley, LAR – While much of the Rams damage was done through the air this past Sunday, Gurley still racked up the fantasy points, as he registered two rushing touchdowns and racked up 104 total yards. Ultimately, as predicted, this Giants team is in a complete downward spiral and proved to be no match for this high-powered Rams offense. Gurley was a great DFS pick through and through.

Affordable Plays

Alvin Kamara, NO – Despite the fact that things didn’t exactly play out as expected in terms of a shift in touch distribution, Kamara still turned out to be a home run pick for NostraDomUs. In fact, Kamara finished Sunday as the number two scorer in all of fantasy football for the week. Rather than go any further, I’ll leave it at that. What else are you looking for out of me?

Aaron Jones, GB – Talk about a pick blowing up in our faces… Jones produced next to nothing on Monday night, and is now leading many to question his role in this Packers offense going forward. Best advice is to calm down, as the Packers are going to need all the help they can get so long as Brett Hundley is under center. The fact of the matter is that Jones is a talent – I saw it with my own eyes against the Cowboys and Saints – so don’t expect that the Packers are going to give up on him anytime soon. In the words of Aaron Rodgers “R-E-L-A-X.”

Bargain Play(s)

Adrian Peterson, ARZ – In my original defense of this selection I referenced the obvious things… 1) A heavy dose of touches for AP was to be expected because the Cards don’t trust Drew Stanton – Peterson finished with a career high 37 carries. 2) The Niners rush defense is historically bad – Peterson finished with 159 rushing yards. An excellent fantasy day was had and the facts weren’t overcomplicated. Sometimes keeping it simple pays off.

Flyer Play(s)

Orleans Darkwa, NYG – The Giants didn’t play well whatsoever, however Darkwa seemed to show up in spite of the rest of his teammates. He finished with 78 total yards on 18 touches, making his just $3,800 price tag on DraftKings worthwhile as a flex flyer option.

Ameer Abdullah, DET – Another guy who didn’t light the world on fire, but at such a low price, proved fantasy viable. I mentioned that if he saw over 15 touches, 80 total yards, and a touchdown, that I would be ecstatic… He saw 22 touches, racked up 57 yards, and scored a TD. On DraftKings he reached double-digit points, which is always good enough to win when spending under $4,000 on a flex option. Overall, Abdullah proved to be a solid flyer play for Week 9.

** NostraDomUs’ 2017 Running Back Predictions Record (NFL year to date) **

Right: (48) Wrong: (35)

Prophetic Percentage: (58%)