Amicable Divorces Do Exist…

Just like any couple in today’s America with serious compatibility issues, once Adrian Peterson and the New Orleans Saints identified that things were not going to work, they decided to end the relationship. For those who claim that breakups and divorces are always one sided, take a look at how things worked out for both sides in this scenario... Prior to splitting up, the Saints were ranked in the bottom five of the league in rushing, while Adrian Peterson had yet to eclipse any of the following in a single game this season: A) 33 rushing yards B) a rush of more than 11 yards C) score a touchdown D) 3.7 yards per carry. Fast forward to last week, and to call it night and day would be quite the understatement. First and foremost, the Saints won a huge game against an analytically favored opponent by dropping a whopping 52 points through a suddenly alive ground game (Mark Ingram rushed for 114 yards and two touchdowns). On the other side of things, Peterson joined the Cardinals and just took right off. In all he racked up 134 yards and two touchdowns, while leading the Cardinals to a much needed win. Both sides look reenergized and happy for the first time in months, and most importantly, seem set up for bigger and better things going forward. While breaking up is hard, sometimes it just has to be done. Congrats to both sides here.

PPR Monster

Okay, I’ll admit it, Christian McCaffrey’s rookie season has not gone as well as I predicted it would. In all honesty, it’s been crazy disappointing actually, considering the fact that he’s struggling to reach 3.0 yards per carry and that he hasn’t eclipsed 16 yards rushing in any game since Week 1. To sound like a defensive fan for a moment though, let me defend him in that behind a less than stellar offensive line and operating out of an offense devoid of any other skill position players, it makes sense that defenses are building their entire scheme around stopping McCaffrey. Throughout all of his struggles running the football, those playing in PPR formats are still probably satisfied with their draft selection of McCaffrey. Rather quietly, the rookie is fifth in the NFL in receptions -- albeit for a rather low yardage total -- but those still count as good as any other point in PPR leagues. A further positive on McCaffrey’s behalf is that he has caught touchdown passes in each of the Panthers last two games. It appears that while teams are keying on him more than any other player, the Panthers are still committed to getting him the football by any means necessary. Throughout his rushing struggles, fantasy owners need to take a deep breath -- McCaffrey is the Panthers top offensive weapon and is only going to get better and further evolve. For now, take solace in the fact that he’s already a bona fide PPR monster so early on in his young career.

Identity Shift

Entering this season, all of the New York Giants talk began and ended with their three-headed monster of wideouts consisting of Odell Beckham, Brandon Marshall, and Sterling Shepard. Significant injuries to all three and an 0-5 start later and the Giants were left without any identity outside of being a team that just sucks. A pivot was certainly needed entering Week 6 for the G-Men, as Eli Manning is no longer the type of player who can carry a franchise on his back. After some creative game plan maneuvering, coach McAdoo and the rest of his offensive coaching staff may have stumbled upon something that will work for the rest of the year. First of all, they seem to have found their running back in third stringer Orleans Darkwa, who has racked up 181 rushing yards over his last two contests and is averaging 6.4 yards per carry over that same span. In Darkwa, they have a decisive, explosive, and powerful back, who will run downhill after quickly identifying the designed hole. That type of running works because of the formation that proved to be so effective last week against the Broncos and their top-ranked rush defense. The formation is this: Their “12 personnel” which features two tight ends and one running back. A formation that they ran 72-percent of the time last week, and one geared towards getting bigger bodies on the field for downhill blocking and play action passing. What that does for the Giants -- a team now devoid of talented wide receivers -- it bolsters their previously non-existent running game, while it also allows tight ends to stay in and help out their tackles in the passing game -- by far the biggest flaw with their roster makeup. Once the run is established and the defense has to start cramming eight and nine men in the box, tight end Evan Engram and his 4.4 speed can be unleashed. He was last week against the league’s best defense and proved to be the X-factor in the Giants improbable victory. The only problem I see in this going forward is the fact that guys like me were able to figure this out. If I can, you know that opposing defensive coordinators will be able to do the same. Regardless, even if some tweaks need to be made going forward, the reality is that the Giants have made a clear identity shift. “Ground and Pound” is back in New York.

Split Backfield Report

Tennessee Titans – DeMarco Murray hasn’t received over 14 carries in any of the Titans six games so far this season, while his impact as a receiver out of the backfield has diminished as well. Derrick Henry contrarily seems to have his arrow trending in the other direction, as he saw 19 carries for 131 yards and a touchdown last week against the Colts. Having said all of this, Murray is still the dubbed “lead back” according to the coaching staff, while he has been a far more consistent option all season long. Keep in mind that Murray also still got into the end zone last week, while his four catches for 47 yards are nothing to sneeze at either. Had he stayed healthy for the entire game, his stat line likely looks a lot different against a helpless Colts defense. Don’t punt on Murray just yet, while you definitely shouldn’t put all of your eggs into the Henry basket.

Washington Redskins – With Rob Kelley expected back at practice this week, the Samaje Perine experiment is likely over for now. With Kelley slated for the early down work going forward, Chris Thompson should still remain one of the most dynamic third down backs in the game today. This backfield is more straightforward than you think.

Chicago Bears – Jordan Howard seems to get better as the season goes on, while that late summer Tarik Cohen fad seems to be blowing away like the leaves on the trees (despite how entertaining his touchdown pass was last week). Howard’s game is built for the cold weather coming, while Cohen’s game may not translate as well into the Chicago winter. Having said all of that, neither has competition for their current role, so continue business as usual.

New York Jets – The Jets can’t figure out their backfield flavor of the week, as a different running back has served as the lead guy for almost every contest so far. I think ideally they want to have Bilal Powell lead the way, but right now he’s banged up. Finally healthy, Matt Forte looks to be the guy leading them going forward, but keep an eye on the injury reports, as Powell could be good to go any day now. Oh yea, don’t forget about Elijah McGuire… Isn’t this Jets backfield fun?

Denver Broncos – The Broncos seem content on giving C.J. Anderson the bulk of the carries, while confining Jamaal Charles to around 10 touches per game. A new wrinkle that developed last week was the inclusion of Devonte Booker, who saw six targets and caught four of them for 78 yards. As he get’s more acclimated, expect the usage of both Anderson and Charles to slip slightly, ultimately making none of the backs happy, nor any fantasy owner.

New England Patriots – As always, the Pats have created a shit-storm of a backfield for fantasy owners to sift through. Currently, Dion Lewis is the hot hand, as he has racked up 52 and 53 rushing yards in back-to-back weeks. Also at the moment, Mike Gillislee owners are wondering what touchdown prison coach Belichick has locked him up in, as he hasn’t found pay dirt since Week 2 against the Saints. The one constant this season has been James White and his affect on the passing game, however with only four catches for 22 yards last week, that two could be trending in the wrong direction. Want to further confuse things? Rex Burkhead is slated to come back this week…

Atlanta Falcons – Both Devonta Freemand and Tevin Coleman are consistently productive, involved, and fantasy viable. Unfortunately though, the presence of the other significantly hamstrings what they each are capable of alone because they both are that talented. Still though, all things considered, this is one of the more straightforward backfields.

Baltimore Ravens – Alex Collins has been the best runner by far that the Ravens have had all season long. Unfortunately he has not been treated as such by the coaching staff, leaving him as the league’s most productive backup running back. Want proof? How’s 6.4 yards per carry on 52 rushing attempts? Once the coaching staff wakes up, Collins will become a lead back to own, Buck Allen will remain the solid PPR option that he already is, and Terrance West will remain useless like he already is.

Indianapolis Colts – Here’s another boneheaded coaching staff, as the Colts have a fresh rookie back ready to explode, but they wont unleash him. For reference, Marlon Mack is averaging an astounding 10 yards per carry over his last two games including a nine carry, 91 yard performance just two weeks ago. It is pretty clear that Frank Gore is no longer an every down back, so why not supplement him with a fresh-legged rookie with proven production? Instead, they choose to keep feeding Gore, while forcing Robert Turbin and his 4.5 yards per touch down our throats for dessert. Eventually, this will become Mack’s backfield, it’s just a matter of when…

Cleveland Browns – Duke Johnson has been the Browns most productive back so far this season, while Isaiah Crowell has been one of the bigger fantasy disappointments thus far. Still though, their roles remain, as Duke is the passing down guy and Crowell is the early down player.

San Francisco 49ers – Kyle Shanahan talked a big game, but still gave Carlos Hyde the lion’s share of the workload last week. Matt Breida appears to be a fantasy pretender. He’s a handcuff option at best going forward.

Green Bay Packers – The injury to Aaron Rodgers changes a lot of things in this backfield, as the Packers will now need to lean on their running game much more for production. Considering that, Aaron Jones would appear to be the back to own here, however it stands to question of whether or not Ty Montgomery should remain the main back because of his skill as a pass blocker and as a bail out passing target for inexperienced quarterback Brett Hundley. What can be said for sure going forward is that both backs should be owned going forward. They type of production that each will offer still largely remains to be seen.

NostraDomUs Predicts – Week 5 Recap

Each Wednesday, in addition to this weekly article, I also publish the DFS RB Plays of the Week – an article reserved to PlaybookPro subscribers only. For our purposes here though, in hopes of keeping things how they have been for the past couple of seasons, I will consider those DFS selections as my "NostraDomUs Predicts" selections that I have been providing in this article for the past two years.

So to make things clear – I will make my running back picks in the other article for the upcoming week, and then I will recap the previous week's picks in this article. At the bottom of the page I will give a running season-long tally of my predictive record.

* Week 5 RB Predictions *

Elite Plays

Kareem Hunt, KC – While the Steelers shut him down on the ground, Hunt made major contributions as a receiver out of the backfield. Ultimately, his five catches and 110 total yards made him more than worthwhile as a DFS start – especially in PPR formats.  

Leonard Fournette, JAX – He was my favorite play entering last week, and when it came to it, he certainly didn’t disappoint, as Fournette racked up 130 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Rams. Continue to expect more of the same from the bruising rookie going forward.

Melvin Gordon, LAC – Gordon’s dual-threat skillset proved to be more than enough for the Raiders underwhelming defense to handle, as he gashed them for 150 total yards, and two touchdowns, on 25 carries and nine receptions. So far, it’s been a 3-for-3 start for NostraDomUs.

Todd Gurley, LAR – While he didn’t get into the end zone this past Sunday, Gurley still managed to rack up 116 rushing yards on 23 carries. A good fantasy start in my eyes, any day of the week.

Affordable Plays

C.J. Anderson, DEN – This was a giant swing and a miss. Go figure that the one time this season the Giants actually decided to show up and give a crap happened to be in their hardest matchup to date – against a good Denver team on the road. Sorry for the bad advice on this one…

Duke Johnson, CLE – Unfortunately it looked like the Texans keyed on DJ this game, which disallowed him from making his typical impact in the passing game. On the bright side though, Johnson did manage his best rushing output of the season, which may be a sign of good things to come.

Bargain Plays

Marshawn Lynch, OAK – Talking to Brett Talley on the Fantasy Alarm Podcast this past week, we argued about the value of Lynch in Week 6. I loved the matchup, and while he agreed with me, he made the clearly valid point about volume. The Raiders just aren’t committed to running the football enough to make Lynch a viable fantasy option right now. In my defense, he did manage nearly 5.0 yards per carry and had he gotten into the end zone, his 63 rushing yards would have been more than enough for a successful DFS week, but that wasn’t the case. Time to reevaluate Beast Mode as a DFS option.  

Jerick McKinnon, MIN – Rode the hot hand here and it paid off. With two more touchdowns and 100 more total yards, McKinnon was a home run play in all DFS formats. Those DraftKings players like myself loved his PPR boost as well with his five receptions in Week 6.

Flyer Plays

Samaje Perine, WAS – His volume was not as heavy as expected, but he did manage an efficient use of his touches, while finding a way into the end zone. Overall, he finished with 47 yards on 12 touches with a TD. At near minimum pricing, he was well worth the DFS start.

** NostraDomUs’ 2017 Running Back Predictions Record (NFL year to date) **

Right: (34) Wrong: (27)

Prophetic Percentage: (55%)