AP to AZ

I can’t say I was shocked when this came across the wire, as the deal makes sense for both sides, but considering all of the Adrian Peterson hype entering the season, I feel compelled to talk about it.

The Trade: Adrian Peterson for a conditional Cardinals 2018 sixth-round pick.

First of all, let’s not bite on the bait for a second time this year. I for one am not running to the waiver wire to go scoop AP again, for a couple of reasons…

1) He is old, slow, and ineffective. 2) The Cardinals offensive line sucks.

Keep in mind that this is not 2012 AP, but rather 32-year-old Adrian Peterson who has not rushed for over 40 yards in any game this season, nor has he averaged over 4.0 yards per carry in any matchup so far in 2017. Also keep in mind that he’s preparing to run behind an offensive line that has produced zero 50 yard rushers in any of their five contests thus far, while they have provided their backs a measly 2.6 yards per rush. Finally, keep in mind that he will take some time to learn this offense – something that never happened in New Orleans. By Week 8 at the earliest – once he and the coaches feel comfortable with his grasp on the offensive scheme – the reality will be that AP is once again to be bogged down in a pass first offense.  We saw how that worked out in New Orleans…

Scrapping for Points

What a crappy fantasy week it was for running backs in Week 5… Only four guys scored over 20 PPR points, and even worse can be said in standard formats. There were only five 100-plus yard rushers, six players who were given 20 carries or more, two players who received double-digit pass targets, and two players who got into the end zone more than once. On top of all of these alarmingly bad backfield numbers – Collectively, only 11 rushing touchdowns were scored by NFL running backs in Week 5, a number that is nearly 50-percent down from the league’s weekly average of about 20. Considering all of that, you should feel blessed that I provided you with four of the top-seven scorers at the position last week in my  DFS RB Plays of the Week article (pats self on back).

We’ll get to that later though.

Going Down Swinging

To keep this short, understand that while it appears that I have lost this argument with the Baltimore coaching staff, I need to make sure my point was heard…

Alex Collins should be getting the bulk of the touches out of the Ravens backfield going forward.

The main reason? Efficiency.

Javorius Allen – the Ravens de facto starting running back, has racked up 232 rushing yards on 66 rushing attempts in five games this season. That is good enough for a paltry 3.5 yards per carry average.

Alex Collins – A Seattle trash heap waiver pickup, has gained 29 more rushing yards (261) on 29 less carries (37). That math has Collins at an astounding 7.1 yards per carry, or an average of 3.6 yards more per carry than Allen gets. Oh, and he accomplished all of this in four games to Allen’s five.

Yes, I know that Allen is the guy who has been there longer, with more reliable ball security, and the guy they trust more in the passing game, but that shouldn’t stop them from finding more opportunities for the more effective player. If you must, feel free to keep Allen in the third down role because he’s been great as a receiver, but for the love of God! Baltimore, please listen to me, and get Collins the ball more. You will get more first downs because of it, and subsequently your offense wont look so embarrassing anymore.

Bout Damn Time!

So, 2017 hasn’t provided the explosive rookie campaigns that I expected for both Joe Mixon and Christian McCaffrey, however let’s all take a second here and give them both a shout out for scoring their first NFL touchdowns this past week. Despite their early season struggles, over a month into the season now, and I think their end zone trips signal a blessing of good things to come. For one, McCaffrey appears to finally have a healthy Cam Newton and a surrounding offense that is heating up, while most importantly it seems that the Panthers offensive identity is starting to build around getting McCaffrey the ball. As for Mixon, getting a new offensive coordinator seems to have done the trick for lifting him out of backfield prison. Jeremy Hill has disappeared, while Gio Bernard is getting change of pace and passing down reps at best. This backfield is Mixon’s to lose at this point. With an expected uptick in touches for each rookie, now would be the time to buy stock in them, or to reinvest your confidence in them if you drafted them highly this summer.

NostraDomUs Predicts – Week 5 Recap

Each Wednesday, in addition to this weekly article, I also publish the DFS RB Plays of the Week – an article reserved to PlaybookPro subscribers only. For our purposes here though, in hopes of keeping things how they have been for the past couple of seasons, I will consider those DFS selections as my "NostraDomUs Predicts" selections that I have been providing in this article for the past two years.

So to make things clear – I will make my running back picks in the other article for the upcoming week, and then I will recap the previous week's picks in this article. At the bottom of the page I will give a running season-long tally of my predictive record.

* Week 5 RB Predictions *

Elite Plays

Le’Veon Bell –

I already said it once, but I’ll happily say it again… Of the top-seven running backs last week, I delivered four of them in this very column. Bell was one of the four, and initially my favorite play of the week. While his team lost and he struggled to maintain a yards per carry average over 3.1, his heavy involvement in the passing game made him an elite PPR DFS play. Having said all of that, he has got to both raise his efficiency and get into the end zone more often if he is going to remain a mainstay on my DFS Picks of the Week.

Todd Gurley –

This one was deflating for sure, as I was initially all jacked up with what seemed like an early game TD for Gurley. Unfortunately, his would be TD was turned into a fumble through the end zone and a subsequent touchback the other way. After that play, the Seattle defense recovered and the same couldn’t be said for the confidence of Todd Gurley. In all, Gurley finished with a paltry five fantasy points (PPR) on the day, making him one of the bigger busts of the week.

Affordable Plays

Melvin Gordon –

Everything that I said about Gordon last week rung true. The Giants couldn’t keep a grip on him, while his multi-talented skill-set provided fantasy owners with over 30 fantasy points. Considering the Giants current state of affairs, I am going to continue to look long and hard at their weekly running back matchups as legitimate DFS options going forward.

Aaron Jones –

Talk about hitting it out of the park… Jones, as predicted, shredded this Cowboys rush defense to the point that he – not Aaron Rodgers – spurred the Packers huge second half comeback. I’ll go as far as to say that Jones looked so fresh and comfortable in this Packers offense that he may be their best option going forward, regardless of what other running backs are healthy or not.

Bargain Plays

Duke Johnson –

On a mere nine total touches this past Sunday, Duke tallied 83 yards and managed to get into the end zone, making his fantasy day a smashing success for Week 5. Most importantly for DFS purposes, he came in at a DraftKings price under $5,000, which made him a low cost play with an excellent payoff. If you played things correctly, the savings from DJR could have allowed you to spend big elsewhere, likely allowing you to cash out this past week.

Latavius Murray –

Murray squandered yet another gift wrapped opportunity to be a starting running back in this league, as he remained ineffective on Monday night despite being given ample opportunities. Instead, Jerick McKinnon grabbed this Vikings backfield by the horns and rode to fantasy success. Murray appears to hold TD vulture upside at best going forward. I was stupid to go against my instincts here; the ones that know deep down that Murray is just not good.

Frank Gore –

I bet on the wrong horse here, as while I was correct about the Colts matchup vs. the 49ers being favorable, Marlon Mack ended up being the back that benefited the most. After Mack not only racked up 91 rushing yards, but also vultured a potential Frank Gore touchdown, Gore was left with very little to work with in this game. Consider yourself warned… This may be a sign of things to come going forward. A changing of the Colts backfield guard may be in order.

Flyer Plays

Alex Collins –

As I said before, I still believe that Collins is the back who should be getting the bulk of the touches in Baltimore, but without scoring or catching passes, his fantasy value remains bleak. This past week, Collins once again eclipsed 4.5 yards per carry, but he didn’t do anything else outside of his 55 rushing yards. I’ll take this one on the chin, despite Collins’ continued efficiency.

Wayne Gallman –

Despite the emergence of Orleans Darkwa, Gallman still proved fantasy relevant last week, as his efficient 57 rushing yards were accompanied by an additional 25 receiving yards on five catches. Looking forward, with the Giants injury to damn near every receiver on the roster, Gallman has a chance to turn into a season-long fantasy presence. Especially with Darkwa suffering an injury on Sunday as well.   

Eddie Lacy –

Both Lacy and Thomas Rawls were given a shot to win this backfield outright, and both failed miserably. I honestly don’t know what to make of the continued ineffectiveness here, but I can at least say I’m sorry about recommending Lacy last week.  

** NostraDomUs’ 2017 Running Back Predictions Record (NFL year to date) **

Right: (28) Wrong: (24)

Prophetic Percentage: (54%)