Unfamiliar Territory

Of the top-seven leading rushers so far this season, five of them are either rookies or have never held a starting job before. Let that sink in for a minute, while you question everything you thought you knew about fantasy football. While we warned you entering this season that the running back leader boards were going to look far more differently than they have in years past due to established veterans changing teams and a loaded rookie class, I’d be lying if I told you that we here at Fantasy Alarm expected an almost entirely newcomer group of leading rushers. For now, I’ll just chalk it up to being only a two week sample size, and that there will be a regression back towards the traditional mean, but going forward, also understand that these rookies and lesser known backs are a part of a larger trend across the NFL. The position is getting younger each year, while teams are less and less likely to invest in singular backs. To put it into perspective, there is a good chance that the Steelers will let Le’Veon Bell walk next season despite the fact that he’s only 25 years old. Le’Veon Bell – unquestionably one of the league’s best players – may not be deemed important enough for the Steelers to bring him back. At the running back position, it seems like “next man up” and “cheaper/younger” is the way that the NFL is certainly trending. When drafting next season, rely less on the Eddie Lacy’s and Adrian Peterson’s of the used goods world, and invest more in the young mid-round draft pick realm by getting yourself a Tarik Cohen or Kareem Hunt.

Zeke Spoils His Appetite

If you keep asking to be fed as much as Zeke does, you would have to think that eventually you would get full, right? Dad jokes aside, Elliott and this Dallas rushing attack went riding high into Mile High last Sunday and got punched in the mouth. With a grand total of nine carries for eight yards, not only was this Zeke’s worst career performance, but this also may be the worst the Cowboys offensive line has looked in the Tyron Smith/Travis Frederick/Zack Martin era. While the rest of the hot take sports media wildly overreacts to this, I’m going to take a page out of the Aaron Rodgers press conference bible and “R-E-L-A-X.” Admittedly, I believed in the invincibility of this Dallas ground game, and blindly bought Zeke stock last weekend, despite the fact that he would be taking on a very tough defense in Denver. And while saying that “it didn’t work out” is a wild understatement, I am not ready to claim that the sky is falling in Dallas either. Most of the stories this week are trying to paint a picture that shows a fractured locker room and dysfunctional coaching staff… “Zeke quit on his teammates!” is one of the most aggressive narratives going around right now, and I’m here to tell you not to take the bait. While the Cowboys bed shitting during Fox’s “America’s Game of the Week” nationally exposed some flaws in their previously thought infallible rushing attack, understand that this always was going to be a really tough game to win. It is rare that a team can go into Denver and win, let alone physically push the Broncos elite defense around in the ground game for four quarters. So hindsight should have all of us understand that banking on a big game from Zeke and the Cowboys last week was probably not a bright idea. My point is that the Dallas debacle last week was a singular mishap and not a part of a larger narrative like the hot take sports media would lead you to believe. The Cowboys still have the most talented offensive line and arguably the most talented runner in the game… Trust me; that still counts for a lot – especially in fantasy football. 

Real Football Disaster, Fantasy Football Success – A Melvin Gordon Story

God, do I hate Melvin Gordon! This is not exactly something that I have kept secret over the last few years, but rather something that I have trumpeted through articles, podcasts, and radio shows. My reasoning is simple: it's because he's not good at football. For example: there is no doubt in my mind that he will finish his career well below 4.0 yards per carry -- typically a measuring stick on who can reliably run the football at the NFL level and who cannot. In fact, in his first two years, Gordon struggled to maintain even a 3.7 yards per carry average, while his third season has started out on an even worse pace at 2.5 YPC on 27 carries. His warped tour of sucking culminated this past Sunday, when he received nine carries for a total of 13 rushing yards against a very getable Dolphins defense at home. If I've said it once, I've said it a thousand times -- The Chargers have themselves a problem in the backfield so long as Gordon is the only one getting touches. Ever wonder why they can't close out tight games over the last couple of seasons? It's because they don't have a reliable clock-eating ground game.

Now, if you will, imagine me as Helga G. Pataki (of Nickelodeon's Hey Arnold! fame) after she shits all over Arnold and then says...

"And yet!"

Having fleshed out all of Gordon's shortcomings as an unreliable NFL running back, he still always seems to find a way to deliver fantasy success. Last Sunday marks the fourth time in his last 14 games that Gordon has delivered 15 or more fantasy points without cracking 4.0 yards per carry or 80 rushing yards. Whether it be because he scrapped up several goal line opportunities in the game, or because he saw a ton of targets in the Chargers come from behind 4-minute offense, Gordon has rarely disappointed fantasy owners given his unquestioned number of reps and touches out of this Los Angeles backfield.

I'll finish up my point with this though -- The reason I'm writing this is not only because Gordon, once again, delivered one of his Jekyll and Hyde real vs. fantasy days, but it's also because the fantasy world needs to know that his honeymoon period will soon be over. This type of atypical and paradoxical production is unsustainable because it doesn't make real football sense. Maybe not this season, but certainly by next season, the Chargers are going to get another capable back -- maybe not one who they plan on taking the starting job, but certainly one who they want to eat into some of Gordon's extremely heavy workload. Soon they will see what it is like to have another guy. Perhaps a guy who can be at least mediocre between the tackles, and he will eventually put pressure on Gordon's domination of touches. Once Gordon no longer has a monopoly on the Chargers backfield, his fantasy stock will plummet. His reasonable success last season and so far this season is a direct product of opportunities. His ineffective production will not survive competition, so I'm just giving you a heads up ahead of time. You will eventually thank me.

Patience is a Virtue

Trust me, this one will not be as long winded as my Melvin Gordon diatribe...

Christian McCaffrey is in an offense with bad wide receivers, a mediocre offensive line, and a banged up quarterback. Whether you want to believe me or not, McCaffrey -- a rookie -- is the player in this Panthers offense that defenses are keying on. Sure he has struggled to produce so far, but keep in mind that so too did Zeke in his rookie season last year. People forget that after his first two games, Elliott was averaging just a shade under 3.3 yards per carry. Just as McCaffrey is facing right now, Zeke was the focus of every defense from day one, and it took him some time to adjust to that at an NFL level. Elliott's rookie season ended in smashing success and so will McCaffrey's. His volume of reps and touches are there and his dual-threat skillset is more than present. Remain patient with the young back.

NostraDomUs Predicts – Week 2 Recap

Each Wednesday, in addition to this weekly article, I also publish the DFS RB Plays of the Week – an article reserved to PlaybookPro subscribers only. For our purposes here though, in hopes of keeping things how they have been for the past couple of seasons, I will consider those DFS selections as my "NostraDomUs Predicts" selections that I have been providing in this article for the past two years.

So to make things clear – I will make my running back picks in the other article for the upcoming week, and then I will recap the previous week's picks in this article. At the bottom of the page I will give a running season-long tally of my predictive record.

* Week 2 RB Predictions *

Elite Play(s)

Ezekiel Elliott, DAL – Swing and a miss! One of my biggest blunders in "NostraDomUs Predicts" history. For all of the reasons stated above, there is no reason to panic with Elliott, and there likewise shouldn't be reason to panic with my predictive prowess.

Affordable Plays

Marshawn Lynch, OAK – I asked for 100+ yards and multiple touchdowns from Lynch and instead I got 45 yards and one touchdown. His 12.9 PPR points were certainly serviceable, but considering my high expectations, I will deem this a second strike against NostraDomUs for Week 2.

Jay Ajayi, MIA – Finally! A score for the prophet, as J-Train delivered on over 120 yards, and low DFS ownership. The matchup suited him, while his unfortunate Week 1 bye week kept the public off his tail. It was a recipe for fantasy success.

Kareem Hunt, KC – Another great play here, as there was no hangover for Hunt after his historic pro debut. He looks to be a player that I'm going to ride often this season -- one of the few chalky guys that I will highlight most weeks.

Christian McCaffrey, CAR – As I stated above, while McCaffrey hasn't worked out too well yet, his time will come soon. Don't be scared off by his uninspiring production, rather be encouraged by his high volume of touches... He will pop soon.

Mike Gillislee, NE – Gillislee got into the end zone once again this past week, and while it wasn't at triple barreled clip, his 12.9 fantasy points were more than serviceable at his price point.

Bargain Plays

Jacquizz Rodgers, TB – As predicted, Rodgers was under owned and undervalued. His near flyer play value was far too much to pass up in a starting running back, and in proving true, he produced nearly 70 rushing yards and a touchdown.

LeGarrette Blount, PHI – This was a calculated gamble that didn't pay off. The Chiefs hemorrhaged goal line touchdowns just one week prior to when the TD vulture king himself was strolling into town. The play made sense to me, but for this I apologize -- Blount received zero carries and was only on the field for six plays!  *facepalm*

Tarik Cohen, CHI – I guaranteed two things last week in regards to Cohen. 1) That he would lead the team in targets, and 2) that he would receive at least 15 total touches. Cohen received exactly 15 touches and he led the team in targets, so check and check. He added 13 fantasy points to boot, which is excellent flex value at a still underpriced listing.

Rob Kelley, WAS – While he didn't get into the end zone, Kelley rushed for nearly 80 yards while carrying a close to minimum price tag. A true bargain play for sure.

Paul Perkins, NYG – Nope. I guess I just gave this Giants offense too much credit. It is going to be tough to roster anyone not named Odell Beckham for a while going forward.

Flyer Plays

Marlon Mack, IND – This was another swing and miss on a shot in the dark pick. The logic of him getting more touches because of his solid debut made sense, but when going against a Cardinals defense, experience is often valued. Eventually Mack will own this Indy backfield, but I guess not quite yet.

Javorius Allen, BAL – It's really tough to hit on these flyer picks because the very nature of them is that they aren't expected to work out, but I nailed this one just like I did with Tarik Cohen in Week 1. In all, Allen got into the end zone, hauled in five passes, and racked up 101 total yards. Expect his price to shoot up as he continues to establish himself as the lead back in this Baltimore offense.  

D’Onta Foreman, HOU – Foreman ran the ball pretty well on Thursday night, but the starter Lamar Miller was solid as well. On top of that, the Texans couldn't get the ball close enough to the goal line for Foreman to do his thing, so my pick did not work out as well as it could have here. Be encouraged going forward by what he showed in each of his 40 rushing yards, but that doesn't change the fact that he wasn't fantasy viable in Week 2.

** NostraDomUs’ 2017 Running Back Predictions Record (NFL year to date) **

Right: (12) Wrong: (9)

Prophetic Percentage: (57%)