A new season is upon us and that means that it is time for the return of the “Running Back Workloads.” As has become tradition over the last two seasons with this article, here I operate strictly in my an alter ego – Nostra-Dom-Us… In kicking off the Running Back Workloads this season, it is time we pick up right where we left off last year with the Running Back Awards. At the end of 2016, the final edition of TRBW was titled “A Season in Review” which logically makes this one “A Season in Preview.” To say that expectations are high for this year’s preseason edition is a tremendous understatement, as prophetic foresight knotted Nostra-Dom-Us three out of five correct preseason award predictions in 2016. That will undoubtedly be a tough act to follow, but he will be up to the challenge nonetheless. Now, without further ado… Nostra-Dom-Us’ preseason predictions…

Eric Dickerson Award: (Rookie Rusher of the year)

2015 Winner: Todd Gurley

2016 Winner: Ezekiel Elliott

“It is largely accepted that in 1983, Eric Dickerson had the single greatest rookie season of any running back ever. Straight out of Southern Methodist University, Dickerson entered the NFL as a Los Angeles Ram, toting the rock 390 times for 1,808 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns, while also catching 51 passes for 404 yards and two more touchdowns. Knowing this makes it pretty understandable why the award is named after Dickerson. In 2016, Ezekiel Elliott perfectly exemplified the explosive nature and flashed the potential dominance that Dickerson did back in ’83, which is why he came away with the award. To say that this category is stacked this year is an understatement, as at least 10 backs have a legitimate shot to take the Award. While 2016 was more loaded than usual, 2017 has a chance to be a rookie running back season for the ages.”

Nostra-Dom-Us Predicts…

Winner:

Christian McCaffrey –

For three years now I have been crazy high on this kid, so I figure, why should I stop now? McCaffrey offers one of the most complete and dynamic dual-threat skillsets I have ever seen out of a running back and he has no major injury history to speak of. With incredibly fresh legs, off the charts athleticism, and a coaching staff who plans on using him in a myriad of situations, McCaffrey has the chance to make a massive fantasy impact right out of the gates in his rookie season. Don't take this as a slight toward any of the backs listed below, just rather understand that I think McCaffrey has legitimate hall of fame potential... If you were looking for a hot take, there you go.

Runner(s)-up

Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, Joe Mixon, Kareem Hunt –

Truth be told, this rookie running back class may be one of the most talented in recent memory. I believe any of the above names could make a legitimate case for the award come season's end. In reality I have been partial to McCaffrey for years now and believe that he is destined for greatness based off of his rare elusiveness and dual-threat skillset, however you could definitely make a case for any of the above names due to their equally high talent and inferior competition at the position. As I said though, I'm going out on a limb for McCaffrey, but understand that you will not go wrong in drafting any of Fournette, Cook, Mixon, or Hunt.

Dark Horse(s)

D’Onta Foreman, Samaje Perine –

I love both of these guys for the same reason – touchdown upside. Both are hulking backs who are incredibly hard to take down one-on-one in the open field, while they both also showed consistent production around the goal line in their college years. In my opinion, Perine is the outright best back on the Redskins roster, while Foreman is joining a backfield without a go-to red zone option. Essentially both Foreman and Perine have a clear path to playing time early on, while many fantasy owners are leaving them unnoticed. Let this be your warning to take notice.   

Adrian Peterson Award: (Comeback Back of the year)

2015 Winner: Adrian Peterson

2016 Winner: DeMarco Murray

“Coming off of a torn ACL that occurred late in the 2011 season, the then 27-year-old Peterson entered Week 1 of the 2012 season with plenty of question marks surrounding his potential production going forward. By season’s end, he finished as the league MVP coming only nine yards short of the single-season rushing record set by the aforementioned Eric Dickerson. Peterson’s 2,097 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns, and mind-boggling 6.0 yards per carry set his 2012 far apart from anyone else in terms of greatest comeback season of all-time by an NFL running back.”

Nostra-Dom-Us Predicts…

Winner:

Todd Gurley –

Here's a guy who not only was taken in the top-10 just two years ago, but a guy who also backed up his draft status with an incredibly productive rookie season. With little going right last season in the Rams move to LA though, Gurley suffered a significant sophomore slump that saw him struggle to even eclipse 3.0 yards per carry. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that a player of his caliber has never played so poorly. Considering that and the overall improvements to the Rams roster – particularly along the offensive line – I am willing to personally guarantee that Gurley will not only improve significantly in 2017, but that he will also return to being a top-10 fantasy running back. That alone should make him a lock for this award, but also keep in mind that the Rams plan on making him an even bigger part of their passing game going forward. Should be a banner year for the former Georgia Bulldog.

Runner(s)-up

Marshawn Lynch, Adrian Peterson –

This is where things get interesting, as both AP and Lynch – former elite backs in their own right's – stand to have significant bounce back seasons based off of circumstance alone. AP, for one, is coming off of an injury plagued season, so despite having a virtual rep split with Mark Ingram, any type of positive health and moderate production will have him in the running for this award. To take it to the next level, Marshawn Lynch has been retired since 2015, so literally anything he does on the field this season will qualify him as a "comeback" candidate. In reality though, I think both come up short to Gurley because they were once elite level backs, but are no longer. Both are over 30 years old, and both will show rust early on, on top of their significant mileage. This award is Gurley's to lose.

Dark Horse

Danny Woodhead –

Woodhead winning this award would certainly be the one of the bigger upset victories, as not only is he coming off of an ACL injury from last season, but he also has never been a featured back at any point in his career. My thought process here is that the Ravens are badly hurt at the tight end position, have mediocre at best wide receivers, and no clear cut feature back. Who else are they going to give the ball to? Woodhead should clear at least 80 receptions and may end up with one of his better rushing seasons – health provided of course – which would give him as good a shot as anyone for the award.

The Herschel Walker Bronze Crutch: (Backfield Bust of the year)

2015 Winner: DeMarco Murray

2016 Winner: Todd Gurley

“For all of his imposing physical features and outstanding stats as a college and USFL professional player, Walker never seemed to live up to the billing as an NFL player. Sure he had some solid years, but in his 13 NFL seasons, Walker only rushed for over 1,000 yards and scored double-digit touchdowns twice. Considering the hype train that consistently surrounds Walker despite his lack of NFL production, I would consider the “Bust” award a proper fit for his namesake.

Nostra-Dom-Us Predicts…

Winner:

Melvin Gordon –

I hate Melvin Gordon. There, I said it. He doesn't possess an ideal running style for the NFL game (bounces outside too often, runs upright), he's never run for over 1,000 yards in a season, and he's never averaged over 4.0 yards per carry. Despite all of that though, people still seem to love the guy, and I can't quite figure out why. I get that he has no competition, but he didn't in any of his first two disappointing seasons either. Just to continue ragging on the guy, keep in mind that he only scored two touchdowns after October 23rd of last season, and that he has a noted injury history (five missed games in his first two seasons). Keep letting people overdraft him, while he continues to let them down.

Runner-up

DeMarco Murray –

Contrarily, Murray is a player who I love, but this season appears to be one with the odds stacked against him. He's on the back-end of 29 years old and possesses significant mileage on his legs, while he has a bigger, stronger, younger, and faster back breathing down his neck on the depth chart. The expectation is that Derrick Henry is going to be more involved this season, and for good reason, as he improved down the stretch of last year, while Murray began to break down. If Murray's second half of 2016 is any indication of how he will play this season (one touchdown and one 100+ yard performance after Halloween) then you can count me out on his draft stock. At the very least, if you end up with Murray, then you must handcuff him with Henry.  

Dark Horse

Ezekiel Elliott –

I write this with tongue in cheek, as I am pretty certain that Zeke is going to take this battle to the high courts like Tom Brady did a couple of years ago, thus delaying his potential suspension into 2018... However I would be remiss if I didn't include Elliott here. If for some unforeseen reason Elliott decides to just take his six game suspension this season, then he will undoubtedly be the 2017 backfield bust of the year, based on how many people have already spent a high draft selection on him.

Larry Centers Trophy: (PPR Performer of the year)

2015 Winner: Danny Woodhead

2016 Winner: David Johnson

“Often gone unrecognized, No running back was more impactful in the passing game or had their production more singularly tied to receiving the football than Larry Centers. Lining up as a fullback for the Cardinals, Bills, Redskins, and Patriots throughout his 14-year career, Centers rarely received many carries. Instead he made his money as a PPR monster, averaging nearly 70 catches per year over his 12 seasons as a starting fullback. Each year many try to duplicate what Centers did throughout his career, some of who have succeeded including Matt Forte, LaDanian Tomlinson, and Marshall Faulk just to name a few, but forever this award will remain named after Centers – a man who’s sole reason for existence was getting open out of the backfield.”

Nostra-Dom-Us Predicts…

Winner:

Le’Veon Bell –

As stated above, David Johnson won this award last season, and he did it in a full season of 16 games, with 80 catches, 879 yards, and four touchdowns. Also in 2016, Le’Veon Bell – who played in only 12 games – tallied 75 catches, 616 yards, and two touchdowns. It is totally conceivable that fleshed out into a full 16 games like Johnson had, Bell would have finished up as the Larry Centers Trophy winner, which is why I am betting on him this season. Provided Bell can stay healthy and out of trouble, I’m thinking that he has a shot at 100 catches this season, which is a feat that we haven’t seen from a running back since Matt Forte did it back in 2014.

Runner(s)-up

David Johnson, Duke Johnson, Danny Woodhead, Theo Riddick, Christian McCaffrey, Bilal Powell –

Included in this list are a bunch of capable guys who either see a high volume of pass targets, or are receiving back specialists. I could totally envision a scenario where David Johnson repeats as the dual-threat PPR machine like last year, while Duke, Danny, Theo, Christian, and Bilal all will see their bread buttered this season by seeing at least five targets per game.

Dark Horse

Someone Else –

Truth be told, this league today is littered with guys who can run the football, block, and catch a high volume of targets. I listed several names above, and while it would be an upset to have someone else win this award at the end of the season, I wouldn’t be that shocked. This game has really changed a lot over the last few years, and the running back has more than emerged as a primary target in several team’s passing games.

Emmitt Smith Golden Football: (MVP)

2015 Winner: Devonta Freeman

2016 Winner: David Johnson

“There may be contention on who the greatest running back ever is, but in terms of a fantasy award, the numbers never lie. Emmitt Smith is the all-time leader in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and in his time, was widely regarded as a top pass catching back. When really boiled down, it’s tough to find a better example of a consistent fantasy MVP than Smith.”

Nostra-Dom-Us Predicts…

Winner:

Le’Veon Bell –

I know that I have Bell listed second, not first, on my top-100 rankings headed into the season, but the more I think about it, the more I totally expect him to dominate 2017.

First of all, he’s looking for more money in a contract year, which as we know, often creates an intense motivation for statistical explosion, especially amongst running backs.

Secondly, because the Steelers have remained quiet during his contract gripe, it has become pretty clear that they are going to let him walk after the season. Connecting the dots, leads one to understand that the Steelers are going to milk every last drop out of Bell as he exits Pittsburgh. Expecting 400+ touches from him this season is certainly not out of the question. Don’t believe me? Just ask DeMarco Murray about how his contract year with the Cowboys went in 2014.

And the final reason you can expect an MVP campaign from Bell in 2017, is because of 2016.

Look at what he managed to do in just 12 games last season…

| Over 1,200 rushing yards on 5.0 yards per carry, over 600 receiving yards on 75 receptions, and nine total touchdowns |

Those numbers were good enough to have Bell finish as the number three fantasy running back and the number six overall fantasy player in 2016. He accomplished that feat in four fewer contests than everyone else, so what’s holding us back from expecting him to finish number one overall in 2017? The media is trying to paint Bell’s contract situation in a negative light, however sharp fantasy owners know that historically contract disputes breed fantasy gold. Bell will own 2017.

Runner(s)-up

David Johnson –

Look, I love David Johnson, and I correctly predicted him as the fantasy MVP last season, but the facts and narrative remain in Bell’s favor for 2017. You are solidly looking at the number two fantasy player in Johnson though, which is nothing to scoff at. Expect a ton of targets, touches, and touchdowns from Johnson in 2017, which completes The “T” Triumvirate of Fantasy Success ™ – a buzz phrase that I just came up with and am totally digging.

Dark Horse(s)

Ezekiel Elliott, Christian McCaffrey, LeSean McCoy –

Zeke will certainly be in the conversation if he is gifted all 16 games, but I’m not picking him because too much destiny rests in the hands of Roger Goodell.

As for Shady, he had a fantastic 2016 and will continue to operate in the most run heavy offense in the NFL. I don’t see it happening though because he gets hurt too often and he is just a shade under 30 with a ton of career mileage.

McCaffrey is certainly a player who would shock the world here, but I have made it clear how much I love this kid. If the Panthers offense can return to its 2015 form, McCaffrey could end up with historic rookie numbers. We saw what Zeke was able to accomplish as a rookie last season in an explosive offense, so why can’t McCaffrey?

Award Notably Omitted…

The Bo Jackson Memorial “What Could Have Been” Trophy

2015 Winner: Jamaal Charles

2016 Winner: Adrian Peterson

“No single football player was expected to do more with his football career than Bo Jackson was. He is considered by many to be the most talented athlete of all-time, but injuries got the best of him. This award is presented to players who came into the season with Bo-like expectations or potential, yet due to unfortunate circumstances of a major injury or multiple nagging injuries, things just didn’t work out.”

Now because I am not in the business of wishing injury upon any athlete, I will not be predicting this award. It is one however, that is imperative to evaluate at the end of the season. I truly wish the best of health to each NFL running back and hope that talent and production will be the defining factor in these awards come season’s end. Unfortunately that is not the nature of this game and thus the Bo Jackson Memorial Trophy exists. In any event, to find my thoughts on this particular award, check the site in Week 17. Until then, take what I have given you here and watch it play out on the field…

Nostra-Dom-Us has spoken.