Who would have known that a career-high launch angle for Eric Hosmer would result in the first year of his career with an ISO higher than .179 and 15.9 AB/HR that is nearly half of his career mark (30.5 AB/HR)? Did you? It doesn’t surprise me by any means! His previous career high in launch angle was 5.9 degrees, but in 2020, it was up to 8.7 degrees. Yes, that wasn’t the only improvement he made, but you can have a 50 percent barrel rate and an average exit velocity of 118 miles per hour but if every ball you hit is at a -1.5 degree launch angle, it doesn’t do you much good in the power department.

It marked the second straight season that his launch angle improved against fastballs and off-speed offerings. Are they still on the lower end of the spectrum? Absolutely, but any increase for Hosmer is beneficial to his power output.

What excites me most is his improvement against breaking pitches. Not only is that blue line sprinting up and to the right, but the exit velocity against these pitches improved as well. Yes, what I’m getting at here, is that against breaking balls in particular, he elevated them more and hit them harder. Yes, please!

His average exit velocity in 2020 tied his 2019 mark for the second-best of his career, but he did manage to post an excellent 10.3 percent barrel rate. His exit velocity specifically on line drives and fastballs remained intact from recent years, so the increasing launch angle is even more exciting.

Year

EV on FB/LD

EV on GB

2017

94.2

87.8

2018

95.1

86.3

2019

94.1

88.9

2020

94.4

88.9

 

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Hosmer was able to eat into his swinging strike rate from recent years, which helped bring his strikeout rate down to 17.9 percent, which is just a smidge off his career average. He continues to swing the bat more, and leave the zone more frequently, so cutting down on the whiffs was pivotal in bringing his strikeout rate back down. Cutting back on the strikeouts was a big reason why Hosmer’s .296 BABIP from 2020 (second-lowest of his career) didn’t absolutely tank his batting average.

On the other hand, not only was his 5.8 percent walk rate in 2020 a career low, but it marks the second straight season that he was below nine percent. From 2012-2018, Hosmer’s walk rate was 8.6 percent, so this marks a pretty steep drop down. His on-base percentage reflects that as well.

  • 2012-2018: .340 OBP

  • 2019-2020: .315 OBP

You can see here, he’s swinging more and leaving the zone more frequently, and with that in mind, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that his walk rate has taken a substantial hit.

Can he sustain his power outbreak from last year? Prior to last year’s 15.9 AB/HR mark, his next best mark was 24.1 at-bats back in 2017. The improvements he made certainly provide optimism, but that is a monstrous jump for Hosmer. There’s regression to be had here, and his current price would necessitate him maintaining the majority of his improvements across the board. He profiles to be more a home one run once every 26 at-bats guy, which gives us 23 home runs for the season. I think that’s a good projection for Hosmer in 2021.

He should be in a spot to drive in plenty of runners and his batting average around .265 should be respectable. Ideally, Hosmer rebounds in the walk department, making him more useful in OBP setups, but 20+ home runs, at least five stolen bases, and a .265 batting average would be a successful campaign for Hosmer in 2021. Think about his 2018 campaign, with a few more homers and a couple more points on the batting average.

As the 15th first baseman off the board, per NFBC data, at face value, he appears to be a solid investment. However, unless he pushes his stolen base number closer to ten, or hits 25 home runs, or hits .290, he’s a middling option at the position. If his batting average pushes closer to .250, Rhys Hoskins and Josh Bell present better value a round or two later.

Hosmer does a few things well, but doesn’t exactly jump off the stat sheet, and is far from the flashiest pick in your upcoming fantasy baseball draft.

 

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball