Arizona starter Robbie Ray is what he is at this point. He’ll get you plenty of strikeouts, walk a few batters, watch some balls fly over the fence, and end the year near a 4.00 ERA. Sure, in 2017, it was 2.89, but a better indicator is looking at his FIP and xFIP metrics. For his career, he has a 3.97 FIP and 4.11 ERA. He’s a fly ball pitcher in the juiced ball era that serves up plenty of hard contact, which isn’t ideal. However, with a K/9 above 11.00 each of the past four seasons, he gives you plenty of strikeouts to make up for other starters in your rotation that do not compile strikeouts in bunches. For example, if Zack Greinke is your ace, let Ray’s strikeouts boost Greinke, while Greinke’s lower ERA can offset Ray’s 4.00-plus mark.
His fly ball rate dropped to 37 percent last year, which is actually the lowest in the past three years. However, he served up a line drive 25.9 percent of the time. His hard contact rate was slightly lower than last year, but still the second-highest mark of his career. I believe all of this contributed to his HR/FB rate being at 20.0 percent last season. Before 2019, he hung out in the 15.5-17.5 percent range.
Wait. Wait. Wait. His barrel rate jumped, which likely explains the increase in line drive rate, but if his average exit velocity dropped, that doesn’t explain the sizable jump in his HR/FB ratio. His barrel rate was in the bottom six percent of the league, per Baseball Savant, but as for the average exit velocity, it’s a mirage.
Avg. Exit Velo | Avg. Exit Velo (FB/LD) | Avg. Exit Velo (GB) | |
2017 | 89.1 | 92.9 | 87.3 |
2018 | 89.6 | 92.9 | 87.1 |
2019 | 86.9 | 93.2 | 80.6 |
Courtesy of Baseball Savant
The average exit velocity he allowed last year is a product of a massive decrease on ground balls. That mark last year is really quite good, but I would trade a few miles per hour on ground balls if it dropped that mark on fly balls and line drives. Some slight changes in his repertoire led to decreased exit velocity on grounders, but where it really matters for Ray is one those fly balls and line drives, considering that makes up three-fifths of the batted balls he allows.
As mentioned, his repertoire shifted a bit, led by decreased four seamer usage, and increased usage of his slider and sinker.
He traded in his changeup usage for his sinker, and while opponents hit it quite well (.348 average, .638 SLG), it had an average launch angle of just five degrees. It’s good for generating ground balls, when it’s not being hit for a home run. I know, two ends of the spectrum.
His Curveball actually fared worse than recent years, and it’s beyond just statistical production. Opponents chased less, made more contact, and per FanGraphs, the pitch’s value took a substantial hit for the second year in a row.
O-Swing% | Contact% | SwStr% | pVAL | |
2017 | 38.2% | 54.0% | 18.4% | 7.9 |
2018 | 36.1% | 52.8% | 18.4% | 3.6 |
2019 | 29.2% | 53.8% | 16.7% | 0.3 |
Courtesy of FanGraphs
On the other hand, his slider remained productive. It posted a whiff rate, per Baseball Savant of 44.3 percent, and when he needs a strikeout, he’s throwing this pitch. Just compared to 2018, opponents chased more, made less contact on sliders in the zone, and for the third straight season, his slider’s swinging strike rate remained above 21 percent.
O-Swing% | Z-Contact% | SwStr% | |
2017 | 42.5% | 77.5% | 25.1% |
2018 | 37.9% | 78.0% | 21.3% |
2019 | 40.7% | 73.6% | 22.1% |
Courtesy of FanGraphs
Ray is consistent, for better or worse. In each of the past three seasons, he has managed to put numbers that are good, bad, AND ugly.
The Good: In each of the past three seasons, he has posted a strikeout rate above 31 percent.
The Bad: In each of the past three seasons, he has posted a walk rate above 10 percent.
The Ugly: In each of the past three seasons, he has allowed a hard contact rate of at least 40.4 percent. For frame of reference, since the start of the 2017 season, only one starter (Shane Bieber , 42.9%) has allowed a higher hard contact rate than Ray (42.6%).
As mentioned earlier, pairing Ray with a starter like Greinke allows your fantasy team to maximize the best of both guys, and even out the worst of their respective games. Outside of 2017, Ray has essentially been the same guy. He’s a southpaw with a strikeout rate around 30 percent and ERA that will reside right around 4.00, likely higher. You can maximize Ray’s value to your fantasy team by ensuring you have some ERA buffers on your staff, and allow him to accentuate your team’s strikeout numbers, or offset some lower guys on your team.
I wouldn’t advise pushing Ray ahead of the likes of Julio Urías and Matthew Boyd , as they have similar ADP’s to Ray (153.01), but if he slips at all, and gets outside of the top 50 starters, there’s some value to be had with Ray, even with the hard contact and home run concerns.
Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball