If you read my player profile on Mark Melancon , you’ll likely know my thoughts on the back end of the Atlanta bullpen before getting into the weeds here. However, keep reading, because there are some helpful nuggets. At the very beginning of the season, there is a clear hierarchy in the back end of the Braves’ pen. Melancon will open the year as the closer, and I’m steadfast in my thoughts on that, but Smith is the clear-cut set up man. Now, that doesn’t mean that there isn’t value to be had with Smith, especially if your league values holds. Furthermore, should Melancon slip, Smith is the next man up. Keep that in mind.

Smith went 6-0 with 34 saves last year, and was really, really good for the Giants. He posted a sub-3.00 ERA for the third time in the past four years, and last year’s 37.4 percent strikeout rate was the highest of his career by nearly three percentage points! After posting a walk rate above nine percent each year from 2014-2016, he’s been below 8.5 percent in each of the past two seasons. Also, it has worth noting that his strand rate of 88.7 percent was sixth-best amongst qualified relivers.

Now, the interesting thing from last year is his 1.38 HR/9 mark. It’s the second-highest mark of his career, and highest since his 1.62 mark in 33.1 innings with the Royals in 2013. Interestingly enough, there’s not many glaring things that stick out against Smith that would explain a seismic shift in the home run totals. Yes, his HR/FB rate was 20.4 percent, the highest of his career, but something has to explain that. It certainly all cannot just be bad luck, right? Right? Well…

His ground ball rate last year is in line with his career marks, and his fly ball rate was the lowest its been in the past four seasons! There’s no glaring difference in hard contact on fly balls and line drives, as it was actually one mile per hour lower than 2018. Also, overall launch angle against Smith was down last year, and while 13.5 degrees is still enough to do some damage, it’s lower comparative to recent seasons.

Is there anywhere that we could shine some light on the increase? Well, opponents hit .271 on just fly balls against Smith, which was his highest allowed since 2014. Also, he induced soft contact on just 20.4 percent of those fly balls. So, that certainly is something. Additionally, opponents barreled him up a bit more in 2019, and he generated fewer pops up (5.7% in 2019).

There are some factors that contributed to it, but overall, it just seems like some bad luck. That mark will regress in 2020, but he is moving from a pitcher-friendly stadium, to one that favors hitters more, so that’s something to note as well. However, SunTrust tends to benefit left-handed hitters, and lefties didn’t really stand a chance against Smith in 2019. They recorded a .157 average with just two extra-base hits (1 HR) last year.

Smith threw his slider more last year, and while the overarching results weren’t too drastic from recent seasons, it does allow him to offer his best pitch more frequently. Furthermore, launch angle against his slider was down, and it marked the second straight season that opponents hit .125 or less against his slider. It’s his best pitch, and he should use it more frequently.

Lastly, you see the consensus starting to shift a bit. Perhaps it’s not a full commitment to Melancon being the closer, but at least acknowledging that it might not be Smith’s. Look at each of the two players’ average draft position through the months, and you will see Melancon took a hit, but then rebounded, while Smith has steadily trended downward.

Month

Will Smith ADP

Mark Melancon ADP

November

140.59

228.15

December

140.94

232.52

January

145.99

232.83

February

167.87

223.49

March

181.03

221.68

April

192.96

224.33

Courtesy of NFBC data (through 4/15/2020)

Again, Smith will likely open the year as Atlanta’s set up man, with Melancon racking up the saves. However, should Melancon flop in any fashion, Smith will get the saves. Smith has converted 48-of-56 save opportunities over the past two seasons and leaves Atlanta in a good spot to close games out. For fantasy purposes, it may not be ideal, but if your league values saves/holds, Smith is a great target.

Overall, I’m far more comfortable drafting Atlanta’s actual closer (Melancon) a couple rounds later than Smith, but in leagues that value holds, this is one of the few situations where you can grab the closer and setup man, and likely come away with positive results.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball