Is this the beginning of the end for Lorenzo Cain ? At 34 years old, age certainly isn’t on his side, some of his numbers are dissipating, and it doesn’t bode well. However, he still runs, and in 2020, guys that steal bases automatically jump a few spots where they would typically be otherwise. Overall, his second season in Milwaukee wasn’t as productive as his first one. In 2019, he hit 11 home runs with 18 stolen bases and a .260/.325/.372 slash line. In 2018, for comparison’s sake, he hit ten home runs with 30 stolen bases and a .308/395/.417 slash line. What happened in 2019 that caused the reduction in some of his numbers, sans the home run total? There’s a few things that can be explained, which don’t translate to future success, but there are some others that point to a rebound closer to 2018 than 2019. Let’s jump in!

That .260 batting average last year was the second-lowest mark of his career and quite frankly, it shouldn’t have been that low. His expected batting average (xBA) of .290 indicates that his average should have been much closer to his career mark, and his BABIP of .301 just further hammers the point home that he was unlucky in 2019. Was he unlucky or inhibited by something? Well, he did mention that he dealt with a thumb issue early in the 2019 season, which would explain some things.

Take a look here at some of his numbers over the first 82 games of the season, compared to his final 63 games:

 

AVG

SLG

BB%

K%

GB/FB

Soft%

Hard%

First 82 Games

.246

.352

7.4%

17.3%

2.43

20.4%

33.7%

Last 63 Games

.281

.403

8.9%

16.6%

1.66

9.9%

40.9%

Courtesy of FanGraphs


I believe the thumb issue was a factor early on in 2019. Take a look at these rolling graphs, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

For the most part, things were on the up-and-up after a slow start to the season. It’s right on par with other numbers for his career, which is encouraging. Something that is not encouraging, however, is the decline in his sprint speed, per Baseball Savant, as well as his success rate when he does attempt to swipe a bag.

 

Sprint Speed

Percentile

SB Success Rate

2015

28.9

94th

82.4%

2016

29.1

95th

73.7%

2017

28.8

89th

92.9%

2018

28.6

86th

81.1%

2019

27.8

72nd

69.2%

Courtesy of Baseball Savant and FanGraphs

That 69.2 percent success rate is far from ideal, and not only is he less successful when he does run, but he’s also running less. His ability to hit for average and swipe bags has been the crux of his fantasy appeal for years. His batting average should remain intact, but I do think his stolen base total is going to drop a notch. It hurts, sure, but even if he only steals ten or so bases this year (given the shortened season), that’s still valuable.

Cain isn’t exactly a power bat by any means, so he needs those steals to help boost his fantasy value. Sure, he’s hit double-digit home runs in four of the past seasons, but totals of ten and 11 in 2018 and 2019 respectively aren’t exactly world shattering. The other thing concerning regarding his power totals is that his fly ball rates are plummeting, and he’s killing worms more frequently.

Take a look at his ground ball and fly ball rates below, as well as his GB/FB ratio. As you’ll see, 2018 and 2019 are the only seasons in his ENTIRE CAREER that he had a GB/FB ratio above 2.00.

Sure, some of the numbers are a product of dealing with a thumb issue in the early parts of the season, but still it’s not as if this was a “one-off” thing. His 2018 season wasn’t particularly encouraging in terms of his ground ball and fly ball rates, and in fact he set career worsts in each of these metrics.

His strikeout rate jumped to 17 percent last season, which is his highest since 2016, but I’m not overly concerned. Sure, some of his metrics like his O-Swing rate and swinging strike rate jumped from 2018, the majority of his marks are right in line, are better than his career averages.

Cain is on the wrong side of the 30, sure, but it seems like 2020 could be another ho-hum season for Cain at the dish. There’s the possibility his stolen bases continue to diminish, which would hurt, but a few extra stolen bases at the expense of getting his average back up to .290 would be acceptable. He’ll still run, don’t get that misconstrued, but the efficiency is waning as he continues to lose a half step or so. He can no longer be your fantasy team’s primary source of stolen bases, but he can still get the job done, and he’s in line to outproduce his average draft position (ADP) yet again in 2020.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball