Los Angeles Dodgers’ star left-hander, Clayton Kershaw , logged 178.1 innings in 2019, which was the most he logged in a regular season since 2015. He posted a 3.03 ERA, which was the second worst mark of his career, and his first year above three since his rookie year back in 2008! Dang, what a disappointment! His FIP and xFIP were at 3.86 and 3.50 respectively, so perhaps that ERA was on the lucky side, but Kershaw remains one of the game’s better pitchers, and easily the best I’ve seen in my lifetime. It was encouraging to see his strikeout rate rebound after being at just 8.65 in 2018, and while that walk rate increased a bit, a 2.07 BB/9 is far from worrisome. I was vehemently out on Kershaw in 2019, and it turned out I was wrong. Am I out again in 2020? Not at all.

Kershaw is changing as a pitcher. In each season since 2017, he’s thrown his fastball less than 47-percent of the time, per Fangraphs pitch info. He was below 53-percent just one time (2016) in his career prior to 2017. Additionally, he never threw his slider more than 33-percent of the time until the 2016 season year. As his fastball velocity has declined, he’s using his slider and curveball a bit more, and his changeup has become non-existent.

Interestingly enough, despite throwing the majority of his pitches softer than years prior, his spin rate continues to go up. It’s quite interesting. While the whiff rates may be down overall from previous seasons, they did rebound from a down 2018 season.

Kershaw’s fastball is relatively straight, but his curveball and slider are anything but that. He needs his fastball to be effective, but his strikeout pitch is definitely that slider, and his 12-6 curve can buckle anyone’s knees. Per Fangraphs’ pitch value data, Kershaw’s slider (16.8) was sixth-best amongst qualified starters, trailing only Justin Verlander (34.3), Max Scherzer (22.9), Patrick Corbin (21.8), Masahiro Tanaka (21.6) and Jacob deGrom (20.5). His slider accounted for 103 strikeouts last year, and not to mention just a .216 batting average and a quality 34.1-percent whiff rate. However, In 2016 and 2017, that pitch registered a 43.3- and 44.7-percent whiff rate respectively. It’s still down, but jumped considerably from a rough 2018 (strikeout-wise).

Kershaw will continue to evolve as a pitcher and continue to rely on his exceptional curveball and slider to fool the opposition as his fastball usage creeps closer and closer to just 40-percent. Will this contribute to a trend that has increased with Kershaw over the past few years? Is it worrisome? I’d say so.

From 2008-2016, Kershaw’s career high in HR/9 rate was 0.63, which happened in 2012. He’s topped that mark each of the last three years, with marks of 1.18, 0.95 and 1.41 from 2017-2019 respectively. Juiced balls? Sure, that’s contributed some I’d sure. His fly ball rate in recent years has been about the par for his career, but harder contact and more barrels against Kershaw are the likely culprits of Kershaw’s increasing HR/FB rate.

The increase in the red line (HR/FB rate) and decreasing blue line (fly ball rate) don’t quite add up. However, when we look at some Statcast and other batted ball data, it’s understandable.

Year

Avg. Exit Velo

Avg. Exit Velo (FB/LD)

Launch Angle

Barrel Rate

2015

84.5

89.9

7.8

3.3%

2016

86.0

90.9

8.4

4.5%

2017

84.6

91.8

9.4

6.3%

2018

87.1

92.2

8.8

5.4%

2019

87.2

93.1

11.2

6.8%

Courtesy of Baseball Savant

Additionally, his 39.1-percent hard contact rate on fly balls was a career-high, as was the 17.9-percent HR/FB rate. The more fly balls that he allows is worrisome, especially with people barreling him up more and hitting him harder. Overall, in 2019 he allowed a 41.9-percent hard contact rate, and 2018 and 2019 are the only seasons that he has been above 30-percent in his entire career.

Lastly, are we ready to say the shortened season is good for a guy like Kershaw? You can look at it either way. Sure, a shortened season allows less time for injury, but an injury to a guy who is susceptible to injuries, like the Los Angeles southpaw, can wreak havoc on fantasy owners.

Kershaw is currently the 14th starter off the board and there is good value to be had with Kershaw here in 2020. The Dodgers have further strengthened the offense, giving Kershaw ample opportunity to rack up victories, even in a shortened season. The home runs are a concern, as is the fact that his ERA will likely be above 3.00 for the second straight season, and opposing batters are barreling up Kershaw with more regularity. Kershaw is a fantasy ace this season, but plan on an ERA closer to 3.30 than 3.00.

Statistical Credits:
fangraphs.com
baseballsavant.mlb.com
nfc.shgn.com/adp/baseball